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Lineup Analysis (5/11/24)

American League

Angels

Mickey Moniak (vs RHP) and Kevin Pillar (vs LHP) are in a centerfield platoon.

Willie Calhoun (.761 OPS) has started seven straight games at DH.

Nolan Schanuel has sat against every lefty the team has faced.

Astros

• The outfield is getting crowded. The following four guys are battling over two spots.

Name: OPS
Jake Meyers: .799 OPS
Mauricio Dubón: .713 OPS
Joey Loperfido: .697 OPS
Trey Cabbage: .625 OPS

Athletics

Brett Harris (.864 OPS) has started seven straight at third base while batting ninth.

• Because of Harris and the promotion of Tyler Soderstrom, Tyler Nevin (.231 OPS over the last week) might see a playing time decline.

Max Schuemann (.699) has started two straight at shortstop with Darell Hernaiz on the IL.

Blue Jays

Davis Schneider (.858 OPS, 3 HR, 1 SB) has started in nine of the last 10 games.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.652 OPS) has started in eight of the last nine games.

Cavan Biggio (.621 OPS) has started only once in the last six games.

Guardians

Estevan Florial (.660 OPS, 3 HR, 2 SB) has hit leadoff in four of the last five games.

Brayan Rocchio (.599 OPS) and Gabriel Arias (.609 OPS) could be splitting time at shortstop.

• Since his major league promotion, Kyle Manzardo (42% K%) has started in three of the last four games while batting in the bottom third of the lineup.

Mariners

Luke Raley (vs RHP) and Sam Haggerty (vs LHP) are still in an outfield platoon.

Josh Rojas has started three of the last five games in right field.

Orioles

Jorge Mateo (.758 OPS, 2 HR, 5 SB) has started in seven of the last 10 games.

Cedric Mullins (.637 OPS) is a fixture in the bottom third of the lineup

Rangers

Davis Wendzel (.292 OPS) started at third base the last two times the team has faced a lefty instead of Josh Smith (.866 OPS).

Ezequiel Duran (.623 OPS) still only faces lefties. His platoon partner seems to be Travis Jankowski.

Rays

• The lineup is getting crowded with several players coming off the IL.

Jonny DeLuca (1.085 OPS, 1 HR, 2 SB) has started in six straight games.

Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario are now splitting time at second base.

Jose Siri has only started in three of the last seven games.

Red Sox

Vaughn Grissom (.294 OPS) has hit fifth for three straight games.

Wilyer Abreu (.807 OPS) has started against two of the last three lefties the team has faced.

Dominic Smith (.488 OPS) and Garrett Cooper (.613 OPS) are manning the first base and DH spots.

Royals

Nelson Velázquez (.594 OPS) has only started in five of the last 10 games. Four of the five games were at DH.

• The outfield is a dumpster fire with Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Garrett Hampson, Dairon Blanco, and Velázquez trying to secure one of the three spots.

Tigers

Colt Keith (vs RHP) and Andy Ibáñez (vs LHP) are in a second-base platoon.

Matt Vierling (.742 OPS) sits every fifth game for Zach McKinstry (.587 OPS).

Ryan Vilade was just promoted and might be on the short side of a platoon with Kerry Carpenter.

Twins

Jose Miranda (.804 OPS, 2 HR) has started in six of the last seven games at third base. He’s hit fifth in the last two games.

White Sox

Tommy Pham (.840 OPS) has hit leadoff over the last two games.

Bryan Ramos (.900 OPS) has started at third base for five straight games since being recalled. In the last four games, he’s batted sixth.

Yankees

• The lineup has stabilized.

Alex Verdugo (.258/.347/.422, with 5 HR) has started seven straight games including five of seven while batting cleanup.

National League

Braves

• Steady, no changes.

Brewers

• The outfield has gotten a little crowded with the return of Christian Yelich. Jake Bauers (.672 OPS), Jackson Chourio (.610 OPS), Sal Frelick (.623 OPS), and Blake Perkins (.747 OPS) are splitting time between two outfield spots.

Brice Turang (.816 OPS, 15 SB) has hit leadoff over the last two games.

Cardinals

• It has only been one game since Willson Conteras went on the IL. Obviously, Iván Herrera will see more time but the DH will open up. In the first game, Brendan Donovan (.665 OPS) was the DH after playing in the field for 17 straight games. The player moving up might be Dylan Carlson (.083 OPS) who normally doesnt start against lefties but did in this instance.

Cubs

• Since coming off the IL, Cody Bellinger has batted third and only been the DH. It’ll be interesting to see how the playing time works out in centerfield (Pete Crow-Armstrong, .591 OPS) or first base (Michael Busch, .797 OPS).

Diamondbacks

• Over the last three games, Corbin Carroll (.206/.300/.270, 2 HR, 8 SB) is leading off.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.656 OPS, 5 HR, 2 SB) has moved from hitting second to sixth.

Jake McCarthy (.752 OPS) has only started in seven of the last 10 games and is now batting seventh.

Dodgers

• Just the three platoons:

  1. Max Muncy (vs RHP) and Enrique Hernández (vs LHP)
  2. James Outman (vs RHP) and Chris Taylor (vs LHP)
  3. Gavin Lux (vs RHP) and Miguel Rojas (vs LHP)

• The two outfield platoons might adjust soon with Jason Heyward about to come off the IL.

Giants

Thairo Estrada (.248/.277/.418, 5 HR, 1 SB) has hit second in four straight games.

Marlins

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is now leading off.

• Since coming off the IL, Jake Burger is batting third.

Vidal Bruján (.266/.338/.391, 0 HR, 2 SB) has started in 11 of the last 12 games. He’s now playing second base.

Nick Gordon (.625 OPS, 5 HR, 1 SB) has started five straight games with the last four in left field.

Mets

Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, DJ Stewart, and Tyrone Taylor aren’t playing enough to matter in most leagues.

Name: OPS, Games Started in last 10
J.D. Martinez: .701, 7
DJ Stewart: .780, 6
Harrison Bader: .654, 6
Tyrone Taylor: .736, 5

Nationals

Jacob Young (.301/.372/.373, 0 HR, 12 SB) has hit leadoff in four of the last five games.

Eddie Rosario (vs RHP) and Alex Call (vs LHP) are in an outfield platoon.

Trey Lipscomb (.244/.317/.289, 1 HR, 6 SB) has started in 11 of the last 12 games at third base. In the last five, he’s hit ninth.

Nick Senzel (.761 OPS, 5 HR) has started in 11 straight games while hitting in the top half of the lineup.

Luis García Jr. (.321/.374/.491, 3 hr, 7 SB) is batting third but there are signs of a possible platoon (.614 OPS vs LHP, .737 OPS vs RHP).

Padres

Luis Arraez is now hitting leadoff with Jurickson Profar hitting fourth or fifth.

Phillies

J.T. Realmuto is batting second.

Whit Merrifield (.659 OPS) and Edmundo Sosa (.806 OPS) are splitting the playing time from Trea Turner’s injury.

Pirates

• A mess to figure out.

Jack Suwinski (vs RHP) and Michael A. Taylor (vs LHP) are in a centerfield platoon. Both are hitting in the bottom third of the lineup.

Edward Olivares (vs LHP) and Rowdy Tellez (vs RHP) are in a platoon with Connor Joe moving around.

• Connor Joe (.288/.363/.450, 3 HR, 2 SB) has started in seven of the last eight games.

Reds

• It’s only been two games since Christian Encarnacion-Strand went on the IL, but the team did split between a righty and lefty starter in those games. In those, Santiago Espinal faced the lefty and Mike Ford the righty. Additionally, it’s not obvious what is going on between Jake Fraley and Will Benson with TJ Friedl back in centerfield. It’s a lineup to revisit in a few games to see who can be added or most likely dropped.

Rockies

Sean Bouchard (.286/.388/.476, 1 HR, 1 SB) has started in four straight games.

• While Jordan Beck (.344 OPS, 44% K%) has started in nine straight games, he hit ninth in the last three.

Charlie Blackmon, who doesn’t have a career platoon split, isn’t facing lefties.


Mining the News (5/9/24)

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

• The Red Sox (quote) and Royals have moved from focusing on fastballs to utilizing their best pitches.

“That message at the very beginning was keeping the main thing, the main thing,” said Kevin Walker, who joined the Red Sox as an assistant pitching coach in 2020 and transitioned to bullpen coach the following year. “For each pitcher you have certain attributes that you’re really good at and we want to make sure that you use your best attributes more often.”

With the teams’ successes, I expect the league to go full copycat mode and do the same. For fantasy, I think there might be three actionable items. First, expect the overall offense to drop as hitters see fewer fastballs. Second, batters who can hit secondaries might have more value. Finally, pitchers who have good secondaries and throw their fastballs too much might be good targets for improvement.

• I could put up everything Lance Brozdowski writes when he examines pitcher changes, but I can’t and won’t. What I can do is recommend following his Substack to at least stay even with your competition.

Angels Patrick Sandoval continues to abandon his four-seam fastball. Usage through his first four starts was 31%. Usage in his last 4 starts has been 9%, toggling it down to 3% in yesterday’s gem. In those first 4 starts, the pitch had an xSLG of .502. The main beneficiaries have been his slider and his sinker, which are both up about 10 percentage points in usage. His overall xwOBA has gone from .324 in those first 4 starts down to .191 in his last 4. Smart adjustment by the Angels. Driveline Stuff+ has the four-seam as his worst pitch at 95. His slider is a plus-plus pitch at 133 Stuff+ and the sinker is marginally better than the four-seam at 99 Stuff+.

American League

Astros

Jeremy Peña will not move up the lineup because his manager doesn’t want to disturb his rhythm.

Espada acknowledged Bregman’s extensive history of rebounding from brutal starts but must also consider how any adjustment will impact the rest of Houston’s lineup. One logical adjustment could be moving Jeremy Peña past Bregman and higher in the batting order, but Espada is wary of disturbing Peña’s rhythm during a torrid start to his season.

“I think that’s why he’s having the year he’s having. He’s in a spot where he’s comfortable and confident. I don’t want to mess around with that,” Espada said. “We need somebody behind our top four to drive those guys in and continue to move our offense forward. I think that’s why he’s having some success — he likes that five or six spot.”

Joey Loperfido is still working at first base.

That Espada chose Mauricio Dubón to play first base over Loperfido in the 10th inning of Wednesday’s game again signals the lack of comfort. Jon Singleton’s continued emergence might mean Loperfido remains in the outfield full time, but he has been working with bench coach Omar López on the intricacies of first base. Espada pinch hit for him twice in the Mariners series when Seattle summoned a left-handed reliever, too, opting for a better platoon matchup over testing a prospect in a tight spot.

Red Sox

• The team is focusing on “first-pitch strikes, best pitches in two-strike counts, lowering walk percentage, increasing strike percentage, and limiting barrels.”

First-pitch strikes, best pitches in two-strike counts, lowering walk percentage, increasing strike percentage, and limiting barrels became Boston’s North Star. In spring training, the metrics were tracked and prizes for top pitchers in each category were distributed. It’s continued in-season despite the marathon nature of a 162-game schedule. To maintain accountability, every two weeks players get updates on where they stand in each category. The internal competition has helped the group thrive and sustain success for nearly a quarter of the season.

Twins

Royce Lewis is struggling with this rehab more than his other ones. Right now, he’s just waiting for the torn muscle to reattach.

He sees his friends having fun and pursuing a club record winning streak. He feels like he’s healing from his right quad strain from Opening Day, but the Twins aren’t telling him too much about his recovery as he waits — and he doesn’t like talking to doctors anymore, because all they give him is bad news, it seems, about how he still can’t play baseball with his friends.

“It’s the most challenging rehab I’ve ever had,” Lewis said.

And that’s coming from the guy who spent the bulk of two years recovering from two different ACL surgeries on the same knee.

But now, he’s just waiting until the doctors clear him to play. He’s not sure when that will be. He’s five and a half weeks into what was expected to be a two-month timeline at minimum, but that depends on how he heals. He feels good, but he reluctantly acknowledges that he’s still waiting for the torn muscle to reattach.

Yankees

• When Jasson Domínguez starts rehab, he will be the designated hitter.

Boone offered several key injury updates Tuesday, including the latest on top outfield prospect Jasson Domínguez. The 22-year-old center fielder could start playing in minor-league rehab games within the next two weeks, and when he begins, he’ll likely start as a designated hitter, Boone said.

“He’s been doing all live (batting practice) and all of his defensive stuff,” Boone said. “He’s getting close.”

National League

Cubs

Cody Bellinger is still experiencing pain.

“I wouldn’t say I’m fully pain-free,” Bellinger said. “But with something like this, it takes quite a bit of time to get fully pain-free. Where it’s at, it’s a matter of pain tolerance. And I feel like I’m in a pretty good spot with it.”

• The General Manager wants a set closer.

“When I think back on some very calm moments in my career, having Jonathan Papelbon and Aroldis Chapman back there is a good feeling,” Hoyer said. “I wouldn’t mind getting back to that where you can sort of pack up your stuff in the ninth inning and not have a lot of anxiety. That’s where we all want to be. There’s not many guys in the game you can say that about. Obviously, our job is to trade for one or to sign one, or to develop one. The teams that have those feel really comfortable.”

Dansby Swanson’s knee has been bugging him for a bit.

Before Wednesday’s 3-0 loss to the San Diego Padres, manager Craig Counsell said Swanson’s right knee was “bugging him a little bit” and they’d use Thursday’s off day to get him off his feet for a couple of days.

“He hurt it on a slide on the last day game here against Houston,” Counsell said. “Through the road trip and homestand, it’s not improving. So we’re going to try to get him a couple days here and see where we’re at.”

Dodgers

• With Jason Heyward about to come off the IL, the Dodgers are most likely to demote James Outman or release Chris Taylor.

With Pages here to stay, the Dodgers now have a decision to make with James Outman. Last season, it was Outman who burst onto the scene with a hot April (.966 OPS) before cooling off the rest of the season. This year, Outman has really struggled offensively, with a .169 batting average and three homers. On Monday, the Dodgers had Outman hit ninth for the first time all season. To his credit, the 26-year-old responded by hitting a two-run homer and putting together some of the best at-bats in weeks. Still, Outman striking out in more than one-third of his at-bats is concerning.

If not Outman who makes way for Heyward, which would be understandable given his defense in center, the Dodgers could look to give Chris Taylor a blow of sorts. Taylor has been a key part of the Dodgers over the last few seasons, but his struggles at the plate have become impossible to ignore. Taylor is 4-for-54 (.074) this season, striking out 26 times. Taylor, however, is under contract until the end of the ‘25 season, which makes everything more complicated.

Padres

Joe Musgrove has been dealing with triceps tendonitis for several starts.

Four days after his sharpest start of the season, Joe Musgrove went on the 15-day injured list. The Padres cited right elbow inflammation as the reason. Team officials described the move as precautionary, comparing it to a recent IL stint for Yu Darvish that ended after the minimum 15 days. Musgrove attributed the inflammation to triceps tendonitis, a condition he said he had “worked through for the last couple” starts and at times in previous seasons.

Adam Mazur and Ryan Bergert are the two prospects the team would call up first according to their GM.

The Padres view starters Adam Mazur and Ryan Bergert as two of their readiest prospects, although they still could be weeks, if not months, from reaching the majors. Another Double-A pitcher, 20-year-old Robby Snelling, might be a bit further away.

“They’re definitely on our radar,” Preller said in an interview Tuesday on 97.3 The Fan. “They’re guys we’re monitoring all the time, both for their development and then also their ability to help and progress, whether it’s at Triple A or the big leagues. … I think they’re on that track, and hopefully we’re having more of that conversation here in the next couple months.”

Pirates

Oneil Cruz will need to constantly deal with his ankle injury.

“That’s just something that we’re going to have to continue to work through from the foot and the ankle as we’ve talked about. Last year, a little bit this spring with the medical performance teams and most notably Oneil, we’re going to have to continue to work through. He’s ready to go and he’s in the lineup today.”

Although Cruz is healthy enough to play, Tomczyk said finding a way to keep him on the field is a big focus for him and his team.

“We’ve tried and they’ve tried just about everything,” Tomczyk said. “Those braces are really good, but they’re predominately for proprioception. What I optimally want to do is create a solid foundation, and that begins with the foot intrinsics, the ankle and all the way up the kinetic chain. So Oneil, the rehab team, medical team, performance team are always working on daily exercises to make sure everything is activated, first and foremost, and then strong to prepare him for the demands of the game. In short, we’ve tried everything. Sometimes he tapes; sometimes he doesn’t. We prefer, he’d prefer to wear nothing.”

Reds

Noelvi Marte should return on June 27 and Matt McLain in August.

Noelvi Marte has 46 games remaining on his suspension. The first game he’d be eligible (if there are no more rainouts) to play would be June 27, the team’s first game of a four-game series in St. Louis. He can start a rehab assignment in the minor leagues 15 days before that.

Bell was also optimistic about the possibility McLain could return in August.

Rockies

Kris Bryant’s back is messed up. He’s on my do-not-draft list for next season based on this quote.

“My disks in my back are pretty much dried up — there are a couple of disks that don’t function like they did 10 years ago,” Bryant said. “My facet joints are a little — not a little — they’re pretty severely arthritic and a lot of bone spurs and stuff like that. That’s part of just getting older … that’s the way the doctor explained it to me and I just have to find a way to manage it as best I can.”

In 2022, Bryant dealt with plantar fasciitis in his left foot after he struggled with the back. Bryant’s problems are on the right side of his lower back.

“Sure there is a connection — left foot, right back,” said Bryant, going as far as his medical knowledge would allow.


Minor League Hitters Struggling with Umpire Strike Zones

Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

In my latest Big Kids article, I noticed three rookie hitters (Tyler Black, Joey Loperfido, and Jordan Beck) are struggling with the major league strike zone. Here are their AAA and MLB strikeout and walk rates.

Strikeout & Walk Rate Changes for Beck, Loperfido, & Black
Name AAA K% MLB K% Diff AAA BB% MLB K% Diff
Jordan Beck 19.8% 45.8% 26.0% 14.9% 0.0% -14.9%
Joey Loperfido 30.3% 41.2% 10.9% 13.1% 5.9% -7.2%
Tyler Black 13.7% 34.8% 21.1% 11.0% 4.3% -6.7%
Average 21.3% 40.6% 19.3% 13.0% 3.4% -9.6%

With the trio seeing major differences, I compared all hitters transitioning from AAA and divided them into those making a debut and veterans. The results line up with what I’ve observed so far, hitters are struggling to adjust to the major leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 6)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome.

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Those are the winning bids from the three 15-team Tout Wars leagues. I just found out the league labeled “Tout-12” has 15 teams.

7:31
Steven: Better 3b fill in Josh Rojas or Rengifo? Thx

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Rengifo

7:31
Carl: Why do the Rockies hate Sean Bouchard?

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s young and good.

Read the rest of this entry »


FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 6)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (5/4/24)

American League

Astros

• Hunter Brown may only get one more start before getting demoted.

Brown may only be guaranteed at least one more turn in the Astros’ rotation, but the impending return of Cristian Javier could force the club into a difficult decision between him and top prospect Spencer Arrighetti. That Brown sat in the bullpen during both of the team’s games in Mexico City as a long-relief insurance policy may have signaled its intentions.

Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (5/4/24)

American League

Angels

• Over the last three games, Nolan Schanuel has hit leadoff.

Luis Rengifo is consistently hitting in the top half of the lineup.

Ehire Adrianza has started at third base in three of the last four games. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 5)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the bids in the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: The chat host is acting up. I’ll try to load the image for another minute or so

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:35
Injured: is Fairbanks and Gelof drops with their timelines?

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: In a shallow enough league, yes.

Read the rest of this entry »