Last offseason, I created an individual pitch metric, pERA, which gives each pitch an ERA and prospect grade based on its ground ball nature and swing-and-miss capability. With the 2017 season over, I’ve compiled the final 2017 values. This year, I’ve added in exit velocity (EV) grades for each pitch.

The process I used for creating pERA is in the article linked above but here is a quick rundown.

• The key change is to give each pitch an ERA value (pERA) based on the pitch’s swinging strike and groundball rate. All the values are based on the average values for starting pitchers. Closers will have higher grades because their stuff plays better coming out of the bullpen.
• The pitcher’s control is determined from their walk rate which is separate from the pitch grades.
• I’ve put each pitch on the 20-80 scale with 50 being average, 80 great, and 20 horrible. For starters, target pitchers with three average or better pitches. For relievers, they just need two pitches.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I examined pitchers whose strikeout per nine (K/9) increased while the strikeout per plate appearance (K%) dropped. This article focuses on the pitchers who saw their strikeout rates go in the opposite directions. Besides the strikeout divergers, I’m going to include the walk rate divergers since both player sets aren’t long.

Read the rest of this entry »

The season seems to never end for fantasy baseball writers. Once the regular season is over, it’s time to begin writing player previews for the next season. Pitchers who’ve had their strikeout (K% and K/9) and walk rates change in different directions spin me for a loop. Now, I query these schizophrenic pitchers to start the preseason previews. I’ll give a quick look at some of these pitchers. I’ll start with those pitchers who’ve seen their K% (strikeout per batter faced) drop while K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) increase.

Two reasons exist for why the rates diverge. The key for both is increasing the number of plate appearances per innings. More plate appearances lead to their K% dropping if the strikeouts remain constant per inning. The other factor is how many hits a pitcher allows (basically BABIP). If a pitcher had good luck on balls in play and recorded more outs, they could quickly get through an inning and thereby raise their K%. Once the BABIP normalizes, the K% will drop.
Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I laid out my plans for combining prospect grades and “scoutable” traits to help project major league performance. Finally, I’m able to output projections with encouraging results. Just by using traits people can scout with their eyes, I created a set of projections which competes with Steamer projections. Additionally, it helps point to the traits people should look for in prospects.

Previously, I tried to use just the five traits prospects get graded on (Hit, Power, Speed, Field, and Arm) to come up with a player’s value. I found the Speed and Power grades useful but came to the following conclusion on the Hit grade:

Basically, the Hit tool is a useless component to determine hitter value as it’s currently being distributed.

The more I thought about the Hit tool, the more I concluded that it’s trying to evaluate too much information (examples of different Hit tool definitions).

For these projections, I matched up the traits hitters display with common stats. To start with, here are the core traits I decided to utilize:
Read the rest of this entry »

Last offseason I committed to finding if there was any information to be gleaned from prospect grades. Sometimes the grades were useful. Other times not at all. While I made some conclusions, many are still unanswered. Over the next few weeks, I going to try to find those answers.

I’m heading down the path with an unknown timetable or conclusion. My goal is to take scoutable hitter traits and come up with a usable projection system. For inputs, I will use the standard five 20-80 scouting traits of Bat, Power, Speed, Defense, and Arm. Using just these factors last year, I found an OK estimate of a player’s projection.

Read the rest of this entry »

(10/9: Thanks to everyone for the additions.)

One player class I target for potential bargains are hitters who played through injuries. These injuries drag down a player’s production as they and their team struggle with the tradeoff of a regular player at 80% or a replacement at 100%. With the season just ending and drafts months away, I want to create a draft season reference list while people still remember parts of the 2017 season.

A few years back, I examined the negative effects of playing through injuries, mainly power. In the following season, those effects are gone for hitters.

Read the rest of this entry »

After squeaking out the top finish in the inaugural 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head league, I moved to the 15-team mixed auction league. It was an interesting season and here are some of my “highlights”.

• To the frustration of auctioneer, RotoWire’s Jeff Erickson, I was just pulling names out of the air during the end game. The room lost its lighting (the sun) and my paper draft list was useless.
• Buster Posey and Chris Davis were my most expensive hitters ($57 combined). I’m pretty sure I got no more than $15 of value out them.
• On the pitching side, I spent $26 combined on Rick Porcello and Danny Duffy as my #2 and #3 starters. I may have been lucky to get positive value from them.
• Additionally, I found it necessary to roster Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, and Rubby de la Rosa on auction day.
• For my first waiver wire splash, I spent over a quarter of my FAAB on the recently anointed Nationals closer Blake Treinen. And release him a few weeks later once he lost his job.
• Got ravaged by injuries. In late May, I sent four players to the DL in one week.
• Around mid-season, I traded my Elvis Andrus for Nomar Mazara because I need some more power. In the season’s second half, Mazara hit one fewer home run, had 14 fewer R+RBI, five fewer stolen bases, and an on-base percentage 16 points less.
• Right after the Andrus trade, I lost my other stolen base threats, Kevin Kiermaier and Eduardo Nunez, to the disabled list.
• Picked up Zach Davies and Mike Clevinger off waivers and just let them go waiting for Rick Porcello to catch fire.
• Spent over 10% of my FAAB and Matt Chapman, watched him struggle on my team, and then released him. He hit 14 home runs in the season’s second half.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s that time when I go back through and see how my preseason BOLD predictions held up. Usually, this process is humbling but after I reviewed them mid-season, I knew I may be in for a career year.

Note: For all the rankings, I used ESPN.com’s Player Rater.

BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the season’s end. Good luck to everyone and hopefully I can help a few teams win their titles. Now, if there ever was a time to second guess me, it’s this weekend. Teams are limiting their pitcher innings and changing starters, especially the playoff-bound teams. Do a bit of fact checking before picking anyone up.

Note: All players have a 10% or less Yahoo! ownership.

Saturday

Luke Sims (5% owned) at Marlins (Odrisamer Despaigne)

If you’re streaming just for Wins, Sims is a perfectly decent option. He’s pitching good enough to squeak out a Win, especially against a beatable Miami team. His strikeouts are reasonable at ~7 K/9. His ERA and WHIP are likely to be high but it’s just one game.

Read the rest of this entry »

The great, powerful, and unbelievably handsome Justin of Friends With Fantasy Benefits (and of course, RotoGraphs) is hosting four early mock drafts. I am participating in one of them.

All 4 #2EarlyMock drafts are running! https://t.co/F8MVltwVHThttps://t.co/voN0u0qhxohttps://t.co/Zs0dRbc3ZQhttps://t.co/b4kc4XbBk5

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) September 21, 2017

In each draft, the following four pitchers went first without exception.

Last season in NFBC drafts, these four were included with the first six pitchers drafted on average. While Kershaw and Scherzer were 1st and 2nd in each draft, Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard were taken, on average, before Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. Both Bumgarner (bruised ribs, strained shoulder) and Syndergaard (torn lat muscle) missed most of the 2017 season. Because of their current injuries and unknown future health, their ADP has fallen in these four mocks.

The trepidation about owning them is understandable but owners still need to value the pair. It’s not going to be easy.

Read the rest of this entry »