NFBC ADP vs Auction Calculator: Correa, Buxton, & Rendon

With the ATC projection data is now available on the website, it’s time to examine where the auction values from the projections and the NFBC ADP disagree. For these comparisons, I used the normal NFBC league settings.

Carlos Correa (10th Hitter by his ADP, 19th by ATC values in auction calculator)

I did not expect to see him on this list but here he is. Correa’s going seven picks ahead of Francisco Lindor while Lindor has the better projection.

The difference comes down to two factors. First, Lindor is expected to steal around 5 to 10 more bases than Correa which is quite a difference. With all other stats being equal, which they are close for this pairing, a stolen base is equal to two home runs in a roto league. They can’t be ignored.

The other factor is the at-bats difference. Correa is projected for 557 (632 PA) and Lindor is up at 616 (684 PA). Here is a comparison of the projected at-bats from several sources to make sure our projections aren’t the exception.

The overall average plate appearances is a bit higher than the ATC estimates. Still, a difference of 44 PA exists. They should be off with Correa likely batting 4th and Lindor leading off. The final average is close to the expected difference as each spot down a lineup costs a hitter 18 PA over the course of a season (18*3 = 54).

While I usually find middle infielders go too high in drafts, Correa may be going especially high. Both are being picked around the first turn. Owners who feel they need to fill their shortstop could pass on Correa and pick up a better value a round later in Lindor.

Byron Buxton (ADP: 34. Auction Calculator: 61)

Buxton’s value comes down to how someone values his stolen bases. Here are some various projections.

It just takes one person to push is stolen base number into the 35 to 40 range for his value to take off. I’d stay away from paying for the upside. Some owner is going to pay up though.

Buxton’s 20 HR/40 SB potential will catch some owner’s eye but it is the rest of his stats which hurt his overall value. His near .250 AVG isn’t great and limits his Run and RBI chances. Additionally, he’ll be leading off (low RBI chances) for an offensively challenged [I was wrong -JZ] above average offensive team creating some floor.

It seems like owners are paying for the best case with Buxton. There is a decent chance he underperforms his projections and is worse (see 2016 and 2017).

Anthony Rendon (40 ADP, Auction Calculator: 59)

I not sure why the big difference. Here’s a quick comparison of his various projections and 2017 stats.

It seems like all the projections have him regressing except the Fans expect him to improve. Maybe owners are latching onto his 2017 season too much. I’m not sure. For comparison, here are the projected (ATC) stats from a few other third basemen going after him.

If an owner believes in the projections, they should be able to wait for Turner who may be the better value based on his AVG.

I wonder if ranking vice values are being used. Owners may just be going down a rankings list instead of diving in and giving each player a value. There seems to be a third baseman going every 12 picks or so. They should be bunched more together in places.

Overall with Rendon, don’t buy him at his current ADP. Similar or better values can be found later in the draft.