Auction Calculator Vs NFBC ADP: Quintana, Samardzija, & Price

I’ll continue my look at players who our auction calculator and NFBC ADPs (average draft position) disagree on the most. Today, I will examine some top rated arms who have lower ADPs, Jose Quintana, Jeff Samardzija, and David Price than our Steamer projections may suggest. This trio has some common factors they share and some individual traits which could keep owners away.

These three starters really stood out on the rankings page with ADPs over 80 but supposedly top-20 starters. They each share these common traits.

1. They throw a ton

Each one normally sucks up a ton of their team’s innings. Of the 15 total seasons from 2013 and on, the trio has thrown over 200 innings 12 times. The high number of innings helps to accumulate strikeouts. Also, these pitchers stay in the game long enough to get credit for a Win. With pitchers throwing fewer and fewer innings per start, those few pitchers left with rubber arms are growing in value. I wonder if owners are slow to catch up with the trend.

They’ve been able to throw all those innings because they’ve generally been healthy. While Price struggled with injuries last year (more on that later), they’ve normally taken the mound every time through the rotation.

2. They’re old-ish

Each will at least start the season at their age-29 season or older. While 30 is not a death sentence for pitchers, the likelihood they become unusable increases significantly each year after 30.

3. They’re boring

Owners don’t want to be bragging on Twitter or to their friends about this trio of starting pitchers. They are not at the Bartolo Colon level of being unsexy but they’re close.

Basically, they’re old, boring, workhorses.

Jose Quintana (Auction Calculator Rank for Starters: 9th ADP Rank for Starters: 18th)

On the surface, I didn’t get the difference. Since I’m just using Steamer projections for the ranking, I will start his analysis by comparing other projections to find if any disconnect exists.

The Steamer projection is the closest to the overall average, so the projection isn’t off compared to the others.

Nothing from his immediate profile sticks out as being off. After digging some, it may be that owners don’t buy the strikeout jump. In 2016, he posted a 7.8 K/9 and it jumped to 9.9 with while his swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) only went from 7.6% to 8.4%. Normally for 10 K/9, a pitcher’s SwStr% needs to be closer to 13%. For a comparision, here are Quintana’s SwStr% and K/9 over the years.

In all but 2016, he posted a SwStr% at or over 8.3% and his K/9 never went over 8.0. To further the point, here are the pitchers with at least 120 IP last season with their K/9 and SwStr%.

Quintana is the pitcher furthest away from the norm with no previous signs of having this talent. Looking at just the results of his pitches and his control last season, my pERA metric estimated his ERA closer to 4.50. His strikeouts could regress quite a bit.

I’m starting to go down a strikeout wormhole and I’ll stop for now. This discussion will be further explored in a future article. For now, I’m not going to believe in the strikeout increase and put his K/9 closer to 8.0 which puts his total K’s closer to 175 assuming 200 IP. I’m not sure if the following is the reason the crowd is buying into him but it works for me.

Jeff Samardjiza (Calculator: 14, ADP: 36)

The reasons to not like the Shark are many, including a 4.42 ERA and 15 losses last season. While he wasn’t ranked as a top-20 pitcher going into last season, his value improved when his strikeout rate jumped from 7.4 K/9 to 8.9 K/9 (which was the value when he was with the Cubs). The strikeout jump can be attributed to him throwing his slider (+5% points, 14% SwStr%) and curveball (+7% points, 9% SwStr%) more. I think the strikeout gains will stick.

How do various other projections think about his gains sticking? I added his K/9 projection because it was a major disagreement point.

Two major disagreements are going on with the projections. The projected ERA varies by ~0.70 and the K/9 varies by 1.8. Staring with ERA, I have problems believing the high (4.25) and low (3.56) values. Also, I’d give him some discount because I know I will not start him in Colorado. An ERA in the high 3’s seems right to me.

As for the strikeouts, the 7.2 K/9 is way off. His three-year average is higher than 7.2 K/9 ( (6.9+7.4+8.9)/3 = 7.7). The most recent season will have the most weight, especially with pitchers. A projected strikeout rate in the low to mid-8’s should work. Overall, I think the Steamer projected value seems about right except for a boost in ERA.

David Price (Calculator: 20, ADP 33)

Price’s value all comes down to his health. He started the season on the DL with an inflamed elbow. He came back and pitched for all of June and July. Then he went on the DL again for an inflamed elbow. Finally, he was activated for the last two weeks of the season.

Looking at his velocity, it dropped just over 1 mph from 2015 to 2016. Then it jumped back up to his 2015 level for the two months he threw.

Even with the steady velocity, he could have been hurt in those middle months with his walk rate (2.9 BB/9) being the highest since 2010. Additionally, his (strike) Zone% was at a career low 47% with a 53% career average. He was showing some definite control issues.

Digging through Al Gore’s internet, I couldn’t find any new information on his health. The best information is this nugget from October 11th at MLB.com:

Red Sox left-hander David Price goes into the offseason healthy with no expectation that surgery will be necessary on his left elbow, said Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski on Wednesday.

So no surgery for Price but no one right now knows for sure about his health. With the lack of medical information, the 13 position drop seems perfectly fine with me.

With a suspect bill of health, here is how the various publications are projecting Price:

While there is some disagreement with ERA, the major difference is the 50+ IP spread. The average seems fine but I may even go even lower to the 170 IP range. Also, I may be willing to value him a little higher in shallower leagues where I will be able to find a better replacement if he goes on the DL again.