Auction Calculator Vs NFBC ADP: Machado, Marte, & Hosmer

With the addition of NFBC ADP (average draft position) to our projection pages. I went and set our auction calculator settings for an NFBC roto team (14 Hitters, 9 pitchers). I just started going down the hitter rankings to find any major discrepancies. I didn’t make it off the first page. Here is an examination of why the values differ for three players.

Note: I’d prefer to use plate appearances to compare playing time but all the print publications use at-bats so I’m stuck using at-bats as a comparison.

Manny Machado (Calculator Hitter Rank: 7, ADP Rank: 15)

According to our calculator, the 25-year-old Machado is supposed to be a first-round talent but he’s coming off the board in the second round. One cause for the high value is that Steamer projects him for a career-high home run total (38). Here is a projection comparison of Steamer and four print publications:

Steamer is definitely the low projection system on Machado’s plate appearances. Even with the fewest number of projected at-bats, Steamer is by far the highest on his home run ability with the Runs and RBI’s from those home runs. If Steamer’s at-bats were closer to the other projections, Machado’s value would be off the charts. It’s tough to bet against the high number of at-bats with his totals from the past three seasons at 633, 640, 630.

Another factor pushing Machado up is Steamer has the highest AVG value (.292). A near .300 AVG is going to be a huge value with the league-wide batting average dropping.

One possible bias in play is that owners who got burnt by his low AVG to start the 2017 season (.230 in 1H) are passing on him this year. Also, they may think his HR total will be closer to 30 than 40 (see Pub 2).

In conclusion, it really comes down if owners believe in the power boost Steamer projects. If so, he’s a mid-first round value and could go higher if his at-bats are closer to the 630 projections. I’m not one to bet on either happening. I’ll likely go with the averaged projection.

Starling Marte (Calculator: 18, ADP: 31)

Doing a quick look at Steamer’s projection, I bet an at-bat discrepancy is the problem with Steamer projecting him for a career-high 585 at-bats. Here are some of his various projections.

It’s the at-bats. Besides the extra counting stats from the extra times to the plate, his high average will get weighted and valued more with Steamer.

He always seems to miss some games (probably related to being a league leader in hit-by-pitches) so his at-bat total has never been over 580 even though he hits near the top of the lineup.

All the rest of his projected stats are similar. For my personal projections, I would probably go with the averaged at-bat number. Something near 550.

Eric Hosmer (Calculator: 28, ADP: 46)

I can understand why owners want to shy away from Hosmer’s 20-ish home runs but he’s been extremely productive with a near .300 AVG, 190 R+RBI, and 6 SB over the past few seasons.

Hosmer is the third high at-bat/high batting average player I’ve examined. Could there be trend or something amiss with the auction calculator. Before using our “Jump to Conclusion Mat”, here is a comparison of his projections:

Steamer projections are the lowest on Hosmer but his ADP hates him even more. Steamer projections aren’t the issue.

I’m trying to deal with this discrepancy. Here are my various theories I have for the difference:

• His 21st overall ranking among hitters snuck up on owners last season.
• Owners may expect 30 HR from their first baseman. Hosmer won’t do that.
• Some of the of the pessimism may be from a move to run suppressing San Diego but he was dealing with a bad home park in Kansas City.
• The auction calculator could be dealing with AVG incorrectly but I don’t think so. The calculator uses z-scores to create it’s rankings and it creates perfect values with no owner biases in play. Owners, on the other hand, will likely overvalue home runs trying to scrounge up everyone available in a league. I created Standings Gain Points values for the 2017 NFBC main event, ran the hitters through the values, and Hosmer ended up as the 33rd ranked hitter. A small drop but not as much as his ADP.

I ran a Twitter poll before posting this article and here are the results with “Must get HR from 1B” the likely winner.

I have Eric Hosmer valued as the 28th or 32nd best hitter (z-score and SGP methods). His NFBC ADP is the 46th hitter off the board. Here are my theories for the difference. Which one do you believe is correct?

I have no idea.

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) January 23, 2018

I need to write an article on why the “Power from 1B Philosophy” is total B.S. The goal is win (I hope), not create an ideal winning team.

Overall, I’m buying Hosmer at his ADP cost. He’s got top-30 hitter talent for a top-50 price. If he produces closer to the published projections, he could be even more valuable.