Here’s your daily dose of lowly owned starters. When Ubaldo Jimenez is the top choice, owners should know today’s pickings are slim.

Max Fried (1% owned) vs Mets (Jacob deGrom)

I can’t come up with a reason to start Fried. Also, I can’t come up with a good pun. His strikeout rate (6.5 K/9 with upside) is acceptable for these lowly owned starters but that’s where the positive traits end. He’s always had walk issues and his walk rate (5.9 BB/9) is almost higher than his strikeouts. His near five ERA (4.70) is near his ERA estimators. Also, he hasn’t gone far into his games to even get a Win averaging just 4.1 IP per start. The low strikeout and low win chances mean a pass for me.

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Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned pitchers throwing tomorrow (<10% in Yahoo! leagues).

Sean Newcomb (9% owned) vs. Mets (Rafael Montero)

Why not? He’s what streaming is about, strikeouts and maybe a Win. He has a 9.4 K/9 on the season with 11.6 K/9 in AAA. He’s facing a beatable Mets team with Montero on the mound. While he’ll walk more than a batter every other inning inflating the owner’s WHIP and ERA, owners know these lowly guys have some negative traits. At least Newcomb as some positive ones, too.

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After the feedback from yesterday’s post on low ownership starters, I may continue this series until the season’s end. All these pitchers featured are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues.

Additionally, I’ve added the opposing team’s strikeout rate for reference. The league average is 21.6%.

Chad Bettis (5% owned) vs Arizona (Zack Godley, 23.9% K%))

After returning from beating cancer, Bettis is not throwing his best. His fastball velocity is down ~2 mph from last season (91.7 mph to 89.8 mph). The velocity loss could explain why his home run rate (2.1 HR/9) is at a career high.

Besides giving up a ton of home runs, the velocity loss has pushed his strikeout rate (6.0 K/9) to a career low. One favorable aspect is a career low walk rate (1.3 BB/9). Pulling the preceding data points together, he’s a below average starter with little chance for strikeout and ERA help (WHIP could be OK with the low number of walks).

The Rockies are trying to secure a Wild Card spot and that is what Bettis is now, a chance for a Win. Not much else.

Daniel Gossett (1% owned) at Red Sox (Drew Pomeranz, 19.2% K%) Read the rest of this entry »

It’s that time of year when teams will be churning through starting pitchers hope to improve their Strikeout and Win totals. Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned guys (under 10% owned):

Buck Farmer (1% Yahoo) at Cleveland (vs. Mike Clevinger)

Just looking on the surface, I would say roll with Farmer and collect some strikeouts (8.9 K/9) and take an ERA hit. The problem is that those strikeouts came early in the season. In his major-league stint in June, he posted 11.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Since returning, those numbers are 5.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. There’s no guarantee his strikeouts will return.

Additionally, his flyball nature (48% FB%) has pushed his home run rate up to 1.7 HR/9. The home runs have inflated his ERA up to 6.32 with his ERA estimators hovering around five.

With Cleveland hitting on all cylinders right now, the Win is unlikely. With little chance for the Win and strikeouts, I would pass on him. Read the rest of this entry »

Dillon Peters

• The 24-year-old, 5’9 lefty throws straight to home (no weird angles) from ¾ arm slot. I watched his last start from September 6th when he faced the Nationals.

• Fastball: 88-92 mph and it usually had a late dip. A few other times it had as much rise as a normal four-seamer. Looking at the pitch information, it seems to be just one pitch considering the spin axis. One possible explanation is that he lost fastball velocity as the game went on.

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Most of my articles are based off myself wanting to know about a subject and just hoping some readers want similar information. I’ve been overwhelmed over the last week with various names and roles for several prospects. Today, I am going to try to wade through these recent promotions to see which players are rosterable and which are just fluff. They are generally listed in my order of preference but each owner will need to see if a player (e.g. Greg Allen for steals) is usable depending on their own team needs.

Hitters

Jeimer Candelario: His value comes down to he can hit for some power and is playing regularly for the Tigers. Additionally, he’s been red hot since joining the Tigers (.400/.478/.500). He should be a .250 hitter with double digit home runs, and no stolen bases over a full. While boring, he is the only hitter featured playing every day.

Greg Allen: In daily lineup leagues, I see him as a must own for owners needing steals. Allen has one usable fantasy trait and that’s stealing bases. Like many of the rookies called up, he’s not getting regular playing time. He’s only started two games but has been in three others as a pinch hitter or runner. Because of his pinch running skills, steal deprived owners can start him if they have another player taking the day off hoping Allen gets used as a pinch runner. Owners shouldn’t count on him for any other production besides the steals.

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As the season winds down, here are two pitchers who owners may want to consider as options as other starters get shut down.

Lucas Giolito

Over the last year or so, I haven’t been kind to Lucas Giolito. In four starts major league starts last season, he issued more walks (5.1 BB/9) than strikeouts (4.6 K/9). His fastball velocity dropped from the high to the low 90’s. He was a top ten prospect coming into the 2016 season but his stock dropped to the point where his 2017 prospect rankings were closer to 50th overall.

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My thoughts on four of the newest closers to be inserted into the role:

Alex Claudio
Rangers

To start with, here’s a video of Claudio throwing.

A lefty sidearmer. I’m really surprised the Rangers rolled the dice with Claudio after their previous side-arming closer, Sam Dyson, couldn’t keep the job and was eventually released.

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Pitchers who lose velocity early in the season get noticed immediately and get an “injury” or “something’s wrong” label. This late in the season, velocity changes can come in as noise as pitchers have 20 games of good numbers to even out the results. Here are a few pitchers seeing a recent drop in their velocity whose owners might not have noticed.

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A few days back, I start the process of trying to find breakout hitters. I found some possible traits which point to hitters breaking out but didn’t get into the stickiness of the stats over different time frames. I’m back to see how the “breakout” stats main their values over time.

For a quick review, here are the claims I made in the previous article.

Overall, here are the rules.
• K%-BB% (plate discipline) changes by +/- 4.5%.
• Flyball rate (FB%) changes by +/- 3%.
If the above two items can’t explain the change move onto the following three points.
• Pull% change (only) by +/- 5% this value can good or bad depending on the hitter’s other traits.
• Raw power can start decline once a player reaches 30-years-old.
• BABIP changed by +/- 30 points. (A change in plate discipline can cause this change)

I will just start walking through the points comparing the results for the year after the breakout. Also, I will look for hitters breaking out in the season’s first month and how those stats carried forward.

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