Tout War Evaluation: It’s Not “All” About My Team
The season is at the one-third marker and owners need to evaluate their team moving forward. In roto leagues, the main focus should be future standings gains. I will go over the procedure using my 15-team Tout Wars mixed league as an example.
To start with here is my start of the week Tout Wars standings.
| Team Name | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | W | SV | ERA | WHIP | SO | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Zinkie | 13 | 12 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 111 |
| Al Melchior | 8 | 8.5 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 11.5 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 108 |
| Joe Pisapia | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 96 |
| Ray Flowers | 9.5 | 8.5 | 12 | 8.5 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 91.5 |
| Ron Shandler | 11.5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 10 | 12 | 9.5 | 90 |
| Jeff Zimmerman | 9.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 14 | 12 | 2.5 | 12.5 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 89.5 |
| Zach Steinhorn | 11.5 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 82.5 |
| Bret Sayre | 7 | 6.5 | 13 | 1.5 | 14 | 14 | 12.5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 81.5 |
| Scott Swanay | 14 | 13 | 10 | 6.5 | 8 | 6 | 2.5 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 79 |
| Brent Hershey | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 78 |
| Gene McCaffrey | 6 | 10.5 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 2.5 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 67 |
| Derek Van Riper | 1.5 | 6.5 | 6 | 6.5 | 3 | 6 | 5.5 | 11 | 8 | 9.5 | 63.5 |
| Tim Heaney | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 63 |
| Scott Engel | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 51.5 |
| Scott Pianowski | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
I’m happy to be involved a nice battle for fourth place after being in last place to start the month around the 60 point mark.
The first step is to look at each category and find out where any gains can be found. Here’s breakdown of each of my categories.
- I am in tight battles with Runs, HR, RBI, and OBP but not in the lead. I could use a small boost in any of these categories.
- With steals, I am in a tight battle for first with Ron Shandler
- I need to make a significant move in Wins and WHIP.
- Just recently, my ERA has become reasonable after being in last for a while.
- Strikeouts are my strong suit with several high inning, reasonable strikeout starters on my staff.
- Saves aren’t currently an issue but I don’t feel secure that A.J. Ramos, Ken Giles, and Justin Wilson will keep their jobs. They might and I could try to move them later in the season. If one or two struggles, gets hurt or is traded, I will still have some production.
Every team will have its own surpluses and deficits. With most of the season still to play, a move now will give the adjustment more time to happen. With my Tout Wars team, two major issues exist:
1. I’m likely to waste some stolen bases.
2. My pitching categories are schizophrenic.
Let me start with steals. Here is the top four in the rankings:
Ron Shandler: 66
Jeff Zimmerman: 64
Joe Pisapia: 56
Gene McCaffrey: 49
I’m of the belief that an owner should never aim for the #1 spot but 11 steals this past week has vaulted me from 3rd place into contention for the top spot. I can battle Shandler for a one spot gain or I could move one of my stolen base resources (Elvis Andrus, Kevin Kiermaier, or Eduardo Nunez) for another player type.
I was in discussion with three different owners trying to work out a trade. I figured the trading would be easier with some teams needing steals to move up and I chose to focus on RBIs. It wasn’t. It seemed like most owners felt they needed to “Win” the trade instead of improving their team.
I made two 1:1 offers to MLB.com Zack Steinhorn (last year’s champ) who I thought had players who matched up with Andrus. Here the players involved and their rest-of-season stats (SGP formula):
| Name | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | PA | Remaining Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Andrus | 48 | 6 | 42 | 18 | 0.337 | 408 | 27.8 |
| Marcel Ozuna | 52 | 17 | 52 | 1 | 0.338 | 425 | 29.5 |
| Nomar Mazara | 45 | 13 | 51 | 1 | 0.333 | 399 | 27.1 |
While he adamantly turned down Ozuna, we worked out a simple 1:1 for Mazara. I get a few more home runs and RBI and he gets some stolen bases. We both walked away happy and should see our team improve in the standings because of it.
The key point for owners is trying to make a small adjustment now while most of the season is left instead of making huge adjustments later (like over playing for Billy Hamilton).
Moving onto my pitching situation which is a mess of all messes. And I’m not really sure how to fix it.
I came into the season knowing I should have decent counting stats and struggle with my ratios (link $$). I ended up with pitchers with good strikeout totals but they acquired them by throwing a ton on innings (Corey Kluber, Jeff Samardzija, and Rick Porcello). With the high innings total, I was hoping for some Wins along the way which haven’t come.
Along with the few Wins, my ratios are low (last in WHIP and recently last in ERA). Here are the Monday standings in the four starting pitcher categories with my team in red.
| Rank | Wins | ERA | WHIP | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36 | 3.574 | 1.1614 | 518 |
| 2 | 35 | 3.657 | 1.1881 | 503 |
| 3 | 34 | 3.763 | 1.2432 | 497 |
| 4 | 34 | 3.828 | 1.2705 | 472 |
| 5 | 34 | 3.844 | 1.2746 | 467 |
| 6 | 34 | 3.857 | 1.2753 | 466 |
| 7 | 32 | 4.006 | 1.2979 | 466 |
| 8 | 31 | 4.014 | 1.3018 | 443 |
| 9 | 29 | 4.143 | 1.3186 | 442 |
| 10 | 29 | 4.175 | 1.3250 | 436 |
| 11 | 29 | 4.176 | 1.3266 | 431 |
| 12 | 28 | 4.212 | 1.3289 | 429 |
| 13 | 24 | 4.259 | 1.3344 | 416 |
| 14 | 24 | 4.472 | 1.3403 | 415 |
| 15 | 21 | 4.708 | 1.3725 | 388 |
I could back down on the strikeouts for ratios with relievers but then I can’t make any progress with Wins. While my ERA isn’t horrible, it’s right at the top of a tier of owners and it will be tough for me to move up anymore. With WHIP and Wins, I may be able to make some progress but I am still a distance from making significant advancement in either one.
The answer isn’t straight forward but I am going to try for Wins and luck/hope myself into a decent WHIP. I’ll go with as many two-start guys with my top starters, while still using the three closers. I have some reservations about keeping all three closers but historically, it takes around 90 Saves for a 4th place finish so I may need all three. Also, they can help with my ratios. I should be able to move one or two at a later date for help if needed.
The one change I’ve been trying to pick up one or two low strikeout, low walk pitchers (e.g. Mike Leake clone) for my high strikeout guys. I’ve had no luck so far finding a trading but haven’t gone into full annoyance mode yet.
This pitching situation has no firm answer. With both WHIP and Wins in the tank, it will be tough to move up in one without sacrificing one the other.
At this point in the fantasy baseball season, owners may be on autopilot. A small correction now can help steer a team to stay away from desperate late-season actions. Good luck making the right choice.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Hey Jeff, you going to be in NYC for the SABR conference at the end of the month? I did see you in Phoenix in March.
No, sorry. I will be in Saber in Boston though
If I were another owner I might target Kluber, Porcello, and Samardzija from your roster, hoping that you’d be frustrated with their poorer than expected production to date. Gotta think there will be a good chance of positive regression … certainly on the wins front.
There was some Sam targeting but with completely low ball offers. With one owner, I got an awful 1:1 offer and then the owner cut the player they offered up a couple of days later. This same owner has done this a few times.
Kluber’s been on the DL so no offers and no one wants Porcello.
You spent more than one-third of your free agent budget to acquire Blake Treinen who has since gone on to produce an ERA only Satan would be proud of: 6.66.
On the flip side, you spent 4% of that same budget for Justin Wilson.
I understand chasing saves: I’m in a far deeper league (A.L. only, 12 owners, 40-man rosters) and my league-mates spend an obscene amount for closers. Given how perilous the position is, I think it makes far more sense to spread the FAAB wealth and use a shotgun approach rather than investing so much on a single player who can, in the case of Treinen, blows up. In our first monthly FAAB auction I obtained Justin Wilson, Kahnle, LeClerc and Joe Smith for about the equivalent of what you spent on Treinen alone. pickups that help in those rate stats you (and, at the time, I) needed to improve.
Smart swap for both sides on Andrus/Mazzara. You should be patient with Kluber and Porcello but clearly need one more established starter.
I would make the Treinen move again. I think there are just a few real difference makers who are available on the waiver wire. I thought he could keep the job. With three closers, I won’t keep digging. I picked up Phelps as a possible move to the rotation but he’s looking to be Ramos’s replacement.
As for starters, Duffy was supposed to help but just too much DL time.
(1) Not sure why you’d seek a difference-maker in a relief pitcher with poor control (two consecutive seasons walking more than 4 batters/per 9 innings) and middling stats for a reliever.
I know Treinen was a trendy pick because of the of the high grounder rate and decent k-rate — Paul Sporer, in his bold picks, called him the next Sam Dyson, and he was right, but not in the sense he wanted.
But how many elite closers last year had a k-rate per nine innings below 9, a walk rate above 4 and advanced pitching metrics mostly in the mid-3s. Let me save you the legwork: None. There were 21 closers who accumulated at least 20 saves last year, and the only ones who walked more than 4/9 innings had elite k-rates, all above 10. Britton was one-of a kind because his grounder rate was astronomical (75%-80%) and his walk rate sub-3.
(2) I’m in a far deeper league than you with 480 roster spots to fill and a pool of 375 A.L. players; by comparison, your league has about 525 players on your rosters (the reserve numbers vary but average close to 12) with 760 MLB players available. So I know how difficult it is to find free agents who will really add value. If someone comes along with a near-certain chance of contributing, I understand the need to spend big. The question then, is whether it made any sense to do so on a nascent closer in general and Treinen in particular.
(3) There have been much analysis done that has shown how much turnover there is among closers each year. You have done some of that work yourself — 61% of closers at the start of the year do not close the full season either because of poor performance or injury. You even profiled which measures were correlated with failure and found that the median projected Steamer ERA among closers who lost their job because of poor performance was 3.33 and the average was 3.37. What was Treinen’s projected ERA from Steamer? 3.35
Put that together and it seems you decided to fill a need with a player whose likelihood of failure was substantially higher than his likelihood of success, and for a category whose leaders exhibit extreme volatility. To place that in some context, owners in your league have acquired 219 players through the FAAB, only one spent more than you did on Treinen (for Joe Ross), and with the exception of Delino DeSheilds, who was acquired for two-thirds the cost you paid for Treinen, the next highest prices for acquired free agents were no more than about half as much as what you paid, and in the vast majority of cases were a tiny fraction. The $359 you spent on Treinen was more than what was spent combined on Benoit, Kahnle, Norris, Casilla, Bauer, B. Miller, Smoak, Morrison, Alonzo, LeClerc, Pinder, Justin Wilson, Motter, J. Bonifacio, Peacock and Soria.
I’ve seen similar patterns in my league: Some owners spend big early to fill positions of need with players of dubious worth. Owners who are more patient, who wait to spend big on players who have a clearer path to success, and who, in the interim, spread their budgets on players with some upside (and risk) tend to fare far better with their free agent budgets. I know you weren’t alone with a big bid on Treinen – someone bid $357. So in terms of bidding just enough to acquire him, your grade is off the charts; you could make money in Vegas. But with the exception of one $200 bid, all the other bids were substantially lower, mostly in the double-digits.
I wish I could cycle in more RP but any player we pick up with FAAB has to be started that week. It makes it tough to take chances on a bunch of relievers.
Gotcha. Different rules than my home league, in which we can either place newly-acquired free agents on our active rosters or reserves. Also, our auction are monthly, so even though our league is deeper, there is more time for talent to accumulate, which is why I could land four worthy relievers in one auction.
“The $359 you spent on Treinen was more than what was spent combined on Benoit, Kahnle, Norris, Casilla, Bauer, B. Miller, Smoak, Morrison, Alonzo, LeClerc, Pinder, Justin Wilson, Motter, J. Bonifacio, Peacock and Soria.”
This was the most damning quote of that entire informative read. Some of those names on there you could’ve conceivably traded for a current closer if you needed the saves. Oh well, hindsight.
this was a good walk through of the thought process. thanks. its a difficult time to to try getting a deal done im finding. some of it maybe bc ppl are waiting on dl activations and dont want to change much. 2more wks
may see desperation setting in on certain owners. sounds like devinski would work well for you. astros sp in general maybe a good source of wins as they beat up the rest of division.
Maybe McHugh will get healthy
I’m also in a position where I’d want to trade Ks for ratios, but in a much shallower league. Any top-30 arms that would be worth targeting for this purpose?