Mike Trout’s Trade Value
In last night’s chat, Paul Swydan and I got a ton of questions on Mike Trout’s trade value because of his recent injury. It’s a simple yet loaded question with so many different league types and possible roster construction rules. I will discuss some basic starting valuations for Trout which owners can use.
When looking at possible trade options, I like to start with Yahoo!’s Trade Market page. It lists the most recent trades involving any player. It just lists the last 25 trades so the page can be refreshed with updated information. Here are some post-injury one-for-one trades from the page:
Hitters:
- Mookie Betts
- Manny Machado
- Jose Altuve
- Miguel Cabrera
- Anthony Rizzo
- A.J. Pollock
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Aaron Judge
- Wil Myers
- Andrew Benintendi
Pitchers:
Some fairly decent players and Dylan Bundy. From these moves, Trout owners should ask for the stars and work their way down just a bit. I could see league types where Wil Myers and Jose Altuve make sense. It’s time to go over some of those different formats.
Redraft: Roto, Points, Head-to-Head (no playoffs)
In these standard leagues, putting a value on Trout is the toughest. For this reason, I’ve previously created a process to determine an injured player’s value with an update new spreadsheet (File -> Download).
Just fill in the shaded areas with your favorite projection for Trout, find three replacement level players, set the projection playing time percentage and a composite player is created. This projection is what an owner should expect to get from Trout’s two months of production and the production from his replacement for the rest of the time.
Here is the example from a hypothetical 12-team league where I assume 40% ownership as the replacement level.
| Name | Percentage of PA | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | AVG | OBP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 100% | 188 | 57 | 39 | 13 | 37 | 8 | 38 | 50 | 0.303 | 0.425 |
| Average Replacement | 50% | 357 | 92 | 48 | 9 | 46 | 5 | 35 | 86 | 0.255 | 0.301 |
| Odubel Herrera | 372 | 99 | 47 | 7 | 35 | 12 | 31 | 91 | 0.268 | 0.325 | |
| Kole Calhoun | 380 | 97 | 53 | 13 | 48 | 3 | 37 | 87 | 0.254 | 0.325 | |
| Matt Holliday | 319 | 81 | 43 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 38 | 81 | 0.243 | 0.254 | |
| Composite Player (Replacement+Returning) | 100% | 367 | 103 | 63 | 18 | 60 | 11 | 56 | 93 | 0.281 | 0.376 |
Using the composite projection, here are some players with similar rest-of-season projections.
| Name | HR | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldschimdt | 19 | 15 | 0.292 |
| Votto | 18 | 4 | 0.290 |
| Myers | 18 | 12 | 0.258 |
| Blackmon | 17 | 14 | 0.299 |
| Correa | 16 | 8 | 0.281 |
A reasonable range of player from the mid-1st round to around 3rd round talent. Now the replacement level will change depending on league and bench size, so these comps will be different with each league.
Head-to-head (playoffs)
Adding a playoff aspect changes Trout’s value significantly. He’s expected to miss just six to eight weeks, so he will be back for the playoffs. Trout owners need to make a serious inquiry of their team and determine if they think they can make the playoffs without Trout. If the answer to this question is no or even maybe, they should look at trading away Trout. Make the playoffs first.
In this case, I would also ask for a top eight talent and really nothing less. The top team should be the first owner bothered. They have the easiest route to the playoffs and Trout could really help once in the playoffs. See if they will bite.
Now, even if Trout’s owner doesn’t acquire top end talent, they need to continue asking and hope someone bites. But if no one does, lower the price and it may be lower than expected as Trout will like only contribute in one of the remaining non-playoff months. The goal is to make the playoffs and hope for some luck. Right now, Trout is not helping. Find someone who will make a move.
Keeper (with a high/normal cost)
If the Trout owner’s team is competing, they should entertain moving him. Another owner will likely overpay and the pieces obtained can help this season (flags fly forever) and into the future.
I’m not even going to try for some comparable players with so many keeper rules.
Keeper and dynasty formats (low to no cost)
I would keep Trout unless two scenarios occurred.
First, if a trade blew me away. Like Bryant, Kershaw, and Correa for him. It’s the type of trade which should be accepted even if Trout was healthy. I asked my Twitter followers the question and here’s how they thought.
Keeper league, keep forever. Going down in order, which is the first trade would you trade Trout for the combination of.
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) May 31, 2017
Maybe owners think they now can pry hurt Trout away. They can as long as they pay up.
Second, if an owner really needs help to win the league. Go for a Hershel Walker type trade. Get at least get one first round talent back and plug every major roster hole. Gut them of any prime players they own. They are getting the best player in the game and it should hurt. And then enjoy your championship.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
My league (redraft, 5×5 roto) may have been the Scherzer for Trout swap. Team A *offered* Scherzer to Team B for Trout about a week ago, prior to Trout’s injury. Team A never cancelled the trade, so Team B accepted right when the news of the 6-8 week recovery time broke.
Should this trade be vetoed? There’s a fairly heated back and forth among league members. Team A was careless and maybe should be punished for that by letting the trade go through, but I think fairness in the league is more important.
I’m very anti-veto, but in an instance like this I think there should be some sort of understanding that an offer is considered off-the-table if the health status of any player included changes from the time the offer is made. ‘Reviewing the medicals’, as they say.
Agree 100% with the medical stipulation. I may try to add it to all my leagues.
Also agreed, assuming Team B knew about the injury (your post isn’t quite clear whether Team B acted because of the injury, or coincidentally at the same time).
so, typically avoid posting questions like this b/c no one likes to talk about other people’s fantasy teams, BUT…i’ve been in this league for 10+ years and i like to win. just traded Chris Archer and Shark for Trout. that was awesome, right? my SP is solid (Kershaw) and i’m 4-3-1…
In your first chart you probably mean Odubel Herrera instead of Odubel Cabera.
I have Trout in probably the most valuable of formats. It’s H2H Points, keep-2 forever. But, due to the particulars, many very good players cannot be kept at all, like Kershaw, Betts, Donaldson, Rizzo, Seager, Sale, Darvish, Encarnacion, Pollock, DeGrom, etc. So I have Trout, the most valuable player, forever, at no cost, in a league where many great players cannot be kept at all, and where the 2-keeper limit means that many keepable players aren’t particularly attractive as keepers.
Trout is a key reason why I’ve had the dominant team in the league over the past 5 seasons and yet, no championships. I’ve been knocked out in the playoffs repeatedly by teams that got hot at the right time.
So again, great team this year. I’m first in my division, leading the league in points by a large margin, but really want to finally win a title. To do so, I need to upgrade pitching (Kershaw, Verlander, and Hamels are my top 3 currently). I’m thinking of offering him to another owner who has a good team, but likely not a championship team, for Sale, Carlos Martinez, Keuchel. It won’t guarantee a championship, but it would guarantee I don’t have Trout any longer. I realize this is a long, specific post, but any advice from any posters as to whether I should make this offer (or similar) would be welcome.
Just food for thought but . . . .how would the Angels trading Trout affect his fantasy value? ALmost any other park would theoretically boost his offense. I’ve always been on the side of “nobody is going to give up a good enough package to make the Angels pull the trigger”. But this almost certainly submarines this season because the rest of that team is terrible.
Most teams if they are out of it might consider dumping some key pieces for prospects. The Angels have no key pieces. Simmons or Shoemaker might get back something better than filler but literally nobody else has any significant trade value whatsoever. The Angels might actually have some money to spend next off-season which sounds great, however they have a LOT of positions to fill since so many guys are free agents at the end of the season: Escobar, Maybin, Chvez, Espinosa, Revere, Pennington, Fister, Petit, Bud Norris (how’s that Fister deal signed a week before Trout went down looking?). The problem is most of those guys are signed to fairly reasonable deals so replacing (or re-signing) them is probably going to cost more than what they are already paying them. Their minor league system sucks so they have no low-cost replacements for these guys.
Sooooo, does this re-open the conversation for “maybe it’s time for the Angels to trade Trout”?
The Angel’s can’t trade Trout. Anaheim Stadium would probably burn with the entire front office hanging off the top.
While we are on the subject of trade values:
My pitching staff is headlined by Arrieta($35), Cueto(22) and the rotting carcass of Masahiro Tanaka(17). I also have Taillon and Paxton at $7 each and some depth guys.
Going into the season I thought my staff was in good shape. That’s not been the case. Should I hold and hope for turn arounds? Get what I can, while I can? Deal from the bottom?
My offensive core is championship caliber with Machado, Donaldson, Odor, Story, C. Seager along with Freeman once he gets back and some decent depth. So I just need to figure out my pitching staff…
I’m lost and desperate and it’s only June. Please help.
My pleasure:
1. Use your roto wizard powers to alter the space-time continuum such that you have better pitchers.
2. ????
3. Championship!
Whew, and for a minute there, I thought people weren’t going to take my request for help seriously.
Trade Corey or Trevor for an SP, try and dump Odor and Cueto for their name, hold Paxton and Tanaka.
I’ve been trying to trade Seager for a starter for over a month, not sure if it’s too early or if his price is scaring people off. But I’ll keep at it. You’re the first person who has said to push for a Cueto trade, do you see him not turning it around? I was hopeful about his xFIP but if you see something I don’t, I’m interested to hear it. Or is it just because he’d get the most value between him and Tanaka at this point?
Ha, I apologize for the snarky reply. Is this a keeper league at all, or redraft?
So doesn’t this exercise assume Trout comes back basically fully healthy? Seems like injuries to hands and wrists tend to linger in the form of reduced power output for a long time after the player returns. Plus if it doesn’t heal well there’s really no reason for the Angels to rush him. So, I think if you could get a player from the first table you should jump at it (Roto redraft only, of course)
I offered up Sale and Britton for Trout in a redraft H2H with playoffs. My saves situation is in a good place and I have plenty of SP depth. Is this too much to pay?
In a redraft, I would say it’s just a bit too much, but it depends on the quality of that SP depth you have. I don’t think it’s crazy too much by any means, and even with him hurt, you’re going to have to pay a premium to get the best player in the game. Did you offer any of your lesser SPs first?
that chart listing Holliday’s ROS OBP as .254 has got to be off. Is it supposed to be .354 (which materially affects the OBP of the average replacement and the composite player)?
Trout proposal (5 keeper, no cost, h2h, Yahoo w/Slg, Obp, and k/9)
Trout, trumbo, and Bundy
For
Rizzo, judge, and Paxton
I took Wil Meyers/Quintana for my Trout, would have to throw him back in the pool next year anyways, screw it let’s see if it works out!