To hell with reliable hitter sample sizes for the day and probably the rest of the season. I’ve waited long enough. It’s time to start figuring out which hitters are changing their approach and who should be targeted or dumped. By examining plate discipline and launch angle, the investigation can begin.

Last season, I kept diving into which stats point to sustainable breakouts. Two concepts stood out, plate discipline and launch angle. Concentration on changes in just these approaches removed 95% of the noise. If these two areas don’t point to a change, an owner can then see if power (exit velocity, HR/FB) or pull rate. Otherwise, just ignore the current stat line and expect some regression.

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Yonny Chirinos

The 24-year-old righty has made two starts so far this season and I watched his start from the 5th because of a better camera angle. Since it was his first game, the Gameday’s pitch labeling was off with his slider and splitter getting mislabeled quite a bit.

• Fastball: 91-95 mph. Fairly straight pitch with a small bit of glove-side run and sink. His plus controls made this pitch play up. Also, he may have mixed in a handful of four-seamers.

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Fastball velocity changes may be getting beat to death but they are one of the few stats in which stabilize early in the offseason. I’ve created a couple tools which I use during the season to help find which pitchers to evaluate further using velocity. I have one which grades fastballs and a new pitcher injury finder.

Fastball Grades

This tool simply gives an ERA and 20-80 grade to a fastball based on its projected results from its velocity and spin. The velocity component is simple to understand. It’s hard to hit fast flying small objects. It’s even harder to hit faster flying small objects. Understanding the spin component is a little tougher.

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With the season underway, owners need to start adjusting some player’s fantasy value. Some of the tweaks can be from talent changes (e.g. increase in talent) or role (e.g. moving for a long reliever to starter). Three players, Kenley Jansen, Trea Turner, and Luke Weaver, are three such players on the move.

Kenley Jansen

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With the questions, we may look at extending this chat another hour. -Jeff
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Yesterday, I examined the American League lineups. Today it’s the National League’s turn.

Braves

• Their lineup has been consistent with Nick Markakis hitting cleanup and Preston Tucker batting 5th. I sort of wrote Tucker off coming into the season and need to re-evaluate him and his .467 BABIP.

Brewers

• A major platoon has been used so far with Eric Thames facing righties and Domingo Santana going against lefties. Otherwise, it’s tough to find any reasoning behind some of the changes.
• I’m a little worried about Orlando Arcia’s stolen base chances as he’s getting slotted into the 8th spot in front of the pitcher.

Cardinals Read the rest of this entry »

I find the season’s first few weeks tough to analyze since no stats besides velocity are even close to being significant. Instead, I will look through the first week’s lineups for hitters whose value may be changing depending on preseason expectations.

Angels

• Mike Scioscia has a lineup and he’s sticking to it unless Shohei Ohtani is the DH.
• Of note, Zack Cozart’s leading off and Kole Calhoun is batting 5th.
• The only question will be Kinsler slot once he comes off the DL. Albert Pujols should be the one dropping out of the cleanup spot but I bet it’s Cozart because, you know, veteran presence.

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Tyler Mahle (68% owned at FanTrax)

I watched his game for the 2nd when he beat the Cubs by going 6 IP, 0 Runs, and 7 K’s. Mahle and the opposing pitcher, Tyler Chatwood, did have generous wide strike zone to work with.

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During the offseason, I posted a list of starters who could use a third pitch or throw one of their barely utilized pitches more. I attempted to track some changes during spring training hoping to find next Robbie Ray or Luis Severino. I’ve failed so far. Now with pitch tracking cameras on every pitcher, I can see if anyone is trying to throw a pitch more. I’ll go down my list from February and see who is stepping up their usage.

Dinelson Lamet (Fastball/Slider): Hurt

Antonio Senzatela (Fastball/Slider): A classification mess starts with the first healthy pitcher. MLB’s classification has him with a change curve at 8% but Pitch Info has him not throwing one. Examining his pitch movement charts shows just two pitch groupings. Verdict: Still a two-pitch pitcher

Luis Perdomo (Sinker/Curve): He threw his splitter/change six times which is in-line with his previous usage pattern. It’s a good groundball pitch (57%) but is below average for swings-and-misses for a splitter (10%). Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll prioritize questions on weekly acquisitions but will take other fantasy related questions. See everyone at 8:30 EST tonight.
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