Velocity Decliners: Bundy, Triggs, & Kennedy

Note: I am using velocities from BrooksBaseball.net which has corrected their values from the 2016 to 2017 transition.

 

Dylan Bundy -2.5 mph (2016 FBv: 94.8mph, 2017 FBv: 92.3 mph)

Bundy’s decline is being obscured by the fact he relieved in 2016. Owners can see the 2017 drop and chalk it up to the normal velocity difference between starting and relieving. After removing the 2016 relieving values, his velocity is still down 2.5 mph.

For reference, here are his 2016 stats as a starter all of his 2017 ones.

Bundy’s approach and results are almost a textbook example of fastball velocity loss. The swinging strike rate on his fastball has dropped from 8.2% to 4.8% and therefore his strikeout rate dropped. Bundy realized his fastball isn’t the same, dropped its usage (61% to 50%) and relied on breaking pitches more.

I’m not surprised by the velocity drop. When some pitchers transition from relieving to starting, they slowly lose their reliever velocity. The pitcher initially attempts to keep up their velocity up but they can’t.

Here’s Bundy average game-by-game fastball velocity. His last relief appearance is the first velocity shown.

The gradual drop is similar to the one Danny Duffy experienced with his bullpen-to-rotation transition.

I don’t think the drop is injury related, it’s Bundy’s talent level as a starter.

As for the new lower talent level, his owners should be trying to find a buyer while his ERA is still under 3.00. His projections and ERA estimates point to an ERA in the 4.00 to 5.00 range. Now, I do expect him to slightly outperform his FIP and xFIP with lower than expected BABIP because of his flyball tendencies (32% GB%). It won’t be a whole run or two especially once it starts warming up in Baltimore and some of his fly balls turn into home runs.

Bundy owners should be happy with the production they’ve gotten from him so far this season. Also, they must understand the wheels could come off at any point. With the overall pitching atmosphere in disarray, his owners should easily find a taker.

 

Andrew Triggs (5/10: 90.4 mph, 5/16: 89.5 mph, 5/21: 88.3 mph)

While Bundy’s decline has been gradual over about a year, Triggs has lost 2 mph in the last two games.

He knows his fastball is not up to par. He’s only thrown it 30% of their time and relied on his cutter over his last couple starts.

This news is not good for Triggs owners. Either he’s hurt and can’t keep the velocity up. Or his 88 mph fastball will keep getting tattooed. Neither scenario is acceptable.

Everything points to something being off. I see no reason to start him until his velocity rebounds.

 

Ian Kennedy (2016: 92.8 mph, 2017: 92.8 mph, 5/21: 89.5 mph)

Just take a look at Kennedy’s velocity chart here (using FanGraphs chart to show the DL stint):

The above flow is a perfect example of “Don’t Start This $#%@ Pitcher”.

#1: A three-game drop in velocity
#2: A DL stint to “fix” things.
#3: In the first game back from DL, he has a 2 mph velocity drop and gets lit up for five runs in two innings.

He’s supposed to start tomorrow. Fantasy owners shouldn’t start him until he shows some positive signs. Just let him ride the pine for nine.