What To Do When Free Agent Talent Equals Roster Talent

Earlier this week, I recommended Zack Godley in all leagues. A little while later, I got the following tweet

@jeffwzimmerman @rotographs Great Godley piece Jeff. I’m torn. Do i drop Shoemaker Berrios or my 3rd RP Betances to grab him in 14 team weekly points lg? 5 keepers.

— Marcus Aurelius (@WilcoWacko) May 17, 2017

It’s a tough call and one I face in my own home league where everyone is not 100% invested in their team. Just because a player should be owned, he may not be a fit on a team. Here’s how owners should operate when the situation arises.

 

1. Realistic Roster Analysis

Owners need to take a hard look at their team and see if the free agent is better than anyone on their team. Ignore the draft position anchoring effect when making this decision. The goal is to win your league, not to prove your draft-day decisions were correct. Be prepared for some turnover especially this far into the season.

In Marcus’s instance, he needs to decide between Godley and Shoemaker. Both have around a 9 K/9 and a 4 BB/9. Godley’s groundball rate could be elite while Shoemaker’s rate has been historically average. Both play for an average to below average team, so the number of Wins will be similar. Godley’s in the National League facing a pitcher two to three times a game instead of a DH. For these reasons, I’d take Godley over Shoemaker.

At this point and time, the process points to a change. The season long results may differ with Godley blowing out his arm next week or Shoemaker finding the strike zone. Owners can’t beat themselves up for results. They just need to stick to a good process and they will come out ahead more times than not.

 

2. Trade

An owner needs to orchestrate a trade in which they obviously lose but make their team better knowing the available waiver wire talent. Here’s how.

Going back to Marcus, he may disagree with my analysis and have Shoemaker and Godley equally valued. What he needs to do is make a two-for-two trade offer with him get the losing side. He wants to concentrate on making an improvement with the non-Shoemaker part of deal. Here is a trade he could offer (assuming he values Wilson more than Betances, I do for the Saves):

Gives up:
Matt Shoemaker
Dellin Betances

Gets in return:
Jason Hammel
Justin Wilson

The other owner will likely jump at this deal. They get a huge upgrade in starting pitching with a small drop in future Save potential.

The second players could be anyone. This opportunity could be a perfect time to change their team’s hitter production mix. If your team is leading in home runs and RBIs but struggling with runs and stolen bases, you can try to make a swap at this time.

The key is to make the trade as lopsided as possible to get to get it approved immediately. To do this, find the teams who could use a known drafted pitcher like Shoemaker.

I bet if Marcus examines the league, especially in a 14-team league, the bottom teams could use Shoemaker. The owner should make several offers since they need just one owner to bite.

Also, do not pick up a player and try to trade them immediately. The other owners know the player was just picked up for probably next to nothing. They are going to value their drafted higher and nix the trade. Move players who started the season highly valued since owners will perceive them to be more valuable.

 

Semi-off topic rant: Every league should have a “currency” to balance almost even trades. Having an option available makes trading easier. Trading FAAB is probably the best method. Future draft picks is another useful one. Some resource can be added to a nearly even trade to seal the deal.

Here is a trade which just happened in my Tout Wars league ($1000 FAAB budget).

Side 1
Byron Buxton
$80 FAAB

Side 2
Eduardo Rodriguez

The two teams decided on the two players and little FAAB added to the Buxton side made the deal work. By allowing for small adjustment, the two teams didn’t need to keep adding players to try to even it out.

Not every league has non-player tradable assets but they should. Look to add some to your leagues.

End rant

 

3. Sit Still

If a trade doesn’t occur when the players are equally valued, the owner should sit tight. In the on going example, I wouldn’t release Shoemaker for Godley.

First, other teams would know why you were making the recent trade offers. This will decrease the owners future chances for making trades as other owners will be skeptical of your motivations. Also, an owner may come back and agree to the trade after mulling it over.

Second, any move will make the league’s transactions, so teams will know Shoemaker is available. They may not have known that Godley was an available replacement. There is no need to bring unwanted attention to talented players.

Finally, things have a way of working out. A pitcher could need Tommy John surgery. A rookie could get demoted. Roster spots open up and it’s nice to have a known fall back option.

…

When owners find free agents similar to players on their team, they shouldn’t stress out. Instead they should use it as an opportunity to improve their team, especially via a lopsided trade.