Week 9 FAAB Projections

This week’s mixed league FAAB run, especially in The NFBC where Corbin Martin is still available, will have the most money spent that I can ever remember. It reminds of an Only league at the trade deadline. There are just so many moving parts. I’m going to try to cover it all but let me know if any questions come up and I’ll try to answer them.

The guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Week 9 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Nicky Lopez SS | KC 1% 26% 25% $73
Jordan Luplow LF | CLE 1% 6% 5% $25
Charlie Tilson LF | CHW 2% 10% 8% $28
Jason Castro C | MIN 3% 21% 18% $50
Tony Wolters C | COL 3% 7% 4% $24
Logan Forsythe 2B | TEX 5% 9% 4% $25
Willie Calhoun LF | TEX 7% 35% 28% $90
Giovanny Urshela 3B | NYY 7% 22% 15% $44
Oscar Mercado CF | CLE 8% 26% 18% $53
Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU 8% 19% 11% $35
Jarrod Dyson CF | ARI 9% 20% 11% $36
Ronny Rodriguez SS | DET 10% 33% 23% $71
Brian McCann C | ATL 14% 17% 3% $27
Raimel Tapia CF | COL 20% 23% 3% $29
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 21% 23% 2% $29
David Fletcher 2B | LAA 22% 36% 14% $51
Austin Riley 3B | ATL 23% 74% 51% $263
Hunter Pence LF | TEX 25% 46% 21% $77
Keston Hiura 2B | MIL 28% 67% 39% $178
Brendan Rodgers SS | COL 31% 62% 31% $132
Marwin Gonzalez LF | MIN 31% 37% 6% $41
C.J. Cron DH | MIN 34% 43% 9% $49
Tommy La Stella 3B | LAA 36% 75% 39% $191
Avisail Garcia RF | TB 36% 40% 4% $42
Derek Dietrich LF | CIN 37% 42% 5% $45
Mitch Moreland 1B | BOS 39% 52% 13% $65
Kole Calhoun RF | LAA 45% 53% 8% $59
Christian Vazquez C | BOS 45% 48% 3% $50
Yordan Alvarez LF | HOU 46% 52% 6% $56
Josh Phegley C | OAK 49% 54% 5% $58
James McCann C | CHW 50% 66% 16% $90

● I’ll start with some reference values. Here are the average bits on some major rookies from the past 1.5 seasons.

Historic Rookie & Others FAAB Bids
Add Wee Avg Season Count
Mallex Smith 8 $476 2019 3
Daniel Vogelbach 4 $340 2019 9
Juan Soto 10 $340 2018 34
Gleyber Torres 6 $335 2018 8
Kyle Tucker 16 $245 2018 30
Carter Kieboom 6 $223 2019 38
Franchy Cordero 4 $209 2018 7
Cole Tucker 5 $186 2019 38
Nick Kingham 7 $170 2018 34
Domingo German 7 $167 2018 34
Clint Frazier 3 $165 2019 37
Nate Lowe 7 $163 2019 38
Griffin Canning 7 $151 2019 38
Tyler O’Neill 10 $131 2018 5
Caleb Smith 7 $128 2018 5
Luiz Gohara 9 $118 2018 5
Michael Chavis 5 $106 2019 35
Austin Meadows 9 $96 2018 34

Examing just the hitters, I could see Riley and Hiura go for around $350 and even higher. Rodgers around $300. Calhoun is the real wild card but could be in the $200 range, especially with his fast start. Mercado and Lopez will go around $100.

There are a few lines of thought on the bidding. One is that with so many bids, people won’t go all in like they did with Juan Soto last year and the prices will be down.

The second is that it’ll be like an Only league at the trade deadline. Each team wants a piece and will spend. If they don’t get their top player, they’ll keep the same bid and get the second player. I think Riley, Hiura, and Rodgers fit this for sure and Calhoun could sneak in.

The last is that teams will bid on their needs. If Mallex Smith goes for over $400 last week, Mercado could easily go for triple digits.

In all fairness, owners will move on after the bids are done but owners might need to look back at this week’s bidding (and the hype leading up to it).

● If Tommy La Stella (i.e. Babe Ruth) is available, get ready to pay up.

● Ronny Rodriguez, Charlie Tilson, David Fletcher, and Jarrod Dyson could all for little or nothing this week with all the focus on the rookies. The list could go on with C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun, and Marwin Gonzalez. I’d not be surprised if some of the best deals come from players further down the pecking order. After coming to grips with the rookie bids, spend five minutes and look for any available regulars.

Week 9 Pitcher FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Cole Irvin SP | PHI 1% 18% 17% $32
Shaun Anderson SP | SF 1% 4% 3% $22
Wilmer Font RP | NYM 1% 3% 2% $21
Scott Barlow RP | KC 1% 3% 2% $38
Adam Plutko SP | CLE 1% 3% 2% $21
Brandon Workman RP | BOS 6% 8% 2% $22
Felix Pena SP | LAA 7% 24% 17% $33
Marcus Walden RP | BOS 7% 13% 6% $41
Daniel Norris SP | DET 9% 11% 2% $22
Wade LeBlanc SP | SEA 9% 11% 2% $22
Corbin Martin SP | HOU 10% 71% 61% $166
Steve Cishek RP | CHC 11% 28% 17% $63
Chris Martin RP | TEX 13% 17% 4% $40
Zac Gallen SP | MIA 14% 26% 12% $28
Andrew Cashner SP | BAL 16% 21% 5% $23
Chase Anderson SP | MIL 18% 21% 3% $23
Mike Leake SP | SEA 20% 32% 12% $29
Lance Lynn SP | TEX 20% 23% 3% $23
Hansel Robles RP | LAA 21% 30% 9% $48
Tyler Mahle SP | CIN 22% 27% 5% $24
Taylor Rogers RP | MIN 22% 24% 2% $40
John Means RP | BAL 29% 46% 17% $37
Mychal Givens RP | BAL 33% 37% 4% $45
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 34% 44% 10% $30
Tanner Roark SP | CIN 35% 45% 10% $30
Diego Castillo RP | TB 35% 43% 8% $50
Danny Duffy SP | KC 36% 47% 11% $32
Luke Jackson RP | ATL 39% 67% 28% $118
Mike Fiers SP | OAK 39% 56% 17% $40
Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW 43% 47% 4% $28
Lucas Giolito SP | CHW 44% 74% 30% $68
Chris Bassitt SP | OAK 46% 57% 11% $34

● Corbin Martin, where available, could go for a ton. While some owners need hitting and others need pitching. Some need both. And there is only one pitching option this week. I’m thinking some owners will jump in with both feet and he could be in the $200 range since Griffin Canning went for $151 a few weeks back.

● Weekly Closer Rankings

  • Luke Jackson
  • Chris Martin
  • Steve Cishek
  • Michael Givens
  • Hansel Robles
  • Diego Castillo
  • Taylor Rogers
  • Scott Barlow – 10th inning Save with Royals
  • Marcus Walden
  • Brandon Workman

● Cole Irvin and Shaun Anderson are two rookie pitchers trying to stick in a rotation. Irvin has two decent outings under his belt and Anderson makes his second start tonight for the Giants. For now, I prefer Anderson but both are barely replacement level.

● Felix Pena should be rostered in all leagues.

● While I don’t provide two-start pitcher rankings, many others do. Pour over those rankings as they may come on the cheap with owners focusing on he promoted rookies.

● Grab Craig Kimbrell if he’s available. He’ll likely sign with a team after the draft (June 3rd to 5th)

Here are last week’s successful NFBC bids (38 leagues) and last year’s numbers.

2019 Week 8 NFBC Main Event FAAB Bids
Name Bid Leagues
Steve Cishek 49 35
Charlie Tilson 40 35
Mac Williamson 33 34
Chris Martin 51 31
Aledmys Diaz 15 26
Mike Fiers 30 23
Ronny Rodriguez 54 22
Gio Urshela 19 19
J.P. Crawford 17 18
Josh James 13 18
Hunter Pence 81 17
John Means 33 16
Junior Guerra 12 16
Hunter Strickland 18 14
Brandon Kintzler 10 14
Nick Kingham 7 14
David Fletcher 37 12
Freddy Peralta 26 12
Jason Castro 13 12
Jordan Luplow 8 12
Tony Wolters 4 12
Jefry Rodriguez 33 11
Wilmer Flores 31 11
Wilmer Font 11 11
John Hicks 9 11
Albert Pujols 18 10
Harold Ramirez 13 10
Homer Bailey 12 10
Chris Davis 12 10
Brandon Brennan 11 10
Stephen Vogt 5 10
Danny Duffy 46 9
Tommy La Stella 46 9
Jed Lowrie 20 9
Chris Iannetta 8 9
Blake Swihart 8 9
Didi Gregorius 42 8
Cody Allen 26 8
Jon Duplantier 19 8
Daniel Norris 18 8
Carlos Martinez 15 8
Kyle Seager 13 8
Scott Barlow 10 8
Ivan Nova 6 8
Trevor Richards 36 7
Luis Urias 20 7
Lance Lynn 20 7
Nick Pivetta 19 7
Jeremy Hellickson 14 7
Anibal Sanchez 12 7
Albert Almora Jr. 10 7
Stevie Wilkerson 8 7
Mike Leake 6 7
Jonathan Loaisiga 33 6
Nick Margevicius 26 6
Scott Kingery 22 6
Grayson Greiner 9 6
John Gant 8 6
Reyes Moronta 8 6
Alex Reyes 7 6
Tyler Beede 5 6
Corbin Burnes 4 6
Daniel Ponce de Leon 4 6
Jalen Beeks 40 5
Brandon Dixon 25 5
Freddy Galvis 21 5
Jason Kipnis 15 5
Ji-Man Choi 14 5
Johan Camargo 13 5
Willy Adames 12 5
Jose Urena 12 5
Seth Lugo 8 5
Brandon Crawford 5 5
Neil Walker 4 5

 

2018 Week 9 NFBC Main Event FAAB Bids
Add Avg Count
Austin Meadows $96 34
Freddy Peralta $51 29
Niko Goodrum $18 29
Tyler O’Neill $38 28
Jordan Lyles $41 28
Seranthony Dominguez $125 27
Jarrod Dyson $43 23
Franmil Reyes $29 23
J.D. Davis $32 19
Dan Winkler $22 19
Jose Iglesias $13 19
Ross Stripling $79 17
Ben Gamel $18 17
Brandon Nimmo $27 17
Jaime Barria $30 17
Johan Camargo $16 16
Nate Jones $159 15
Daniel Robertson $32 15
Jhoulys Chacin $16 14
Max Muncy $19 14
Ryan Tepera $24 13
Chad Pinder $9 13
John Hicks $34 12
Jace Fry $30 12
Bartolo Colon $17 11
Daniel Descalso $21 11
Guillermo Heredia $22 10
Joe Jimenez $14 9
Dustin Pedroia $49 9
Adam Eaton $39 9
Ryan Yarbrough $19 9
Justin Anderson $33 8
Devin Mesoraco $32 8
Clayton Richard $12 8
A.J. Minter $54 8
Dansby Swanson $55 8
J.R. Murphy $6 8
Blake Parker $131 7
Seth Lugo $7 7
Leury Garcia $43 7
Jason Vargas $5 7
Tyler Austin $25 7
Wade LeBlanc $9 7
Matt Joyce $10 7
Johnny Field $26 6
Albert Almora $29 6
Rajai Davis $10 6
Jerad Eickhoff $10 6
Seung-Hwan Oh $11 6
Daniel Palka $13 6
Miguel Rojas $29 6
Anthony DeSclafani $8 6
Matt Harvey $15 6
Carlos Rodon $24 6
Kendrys Morales $28 5
Jon Jay $6 5
Chris Owings $53 5
Dellin Betances $11 5
Luiz Gohara $118 5
Richard Rodriguez $5 5
Brandon McCarthy $6 5
Eric Lauer $2 5
Adam Plutko $12 5
Wilmer Flores $16 5
Pedro Severino $3 5
Mark Reynolds $13 5
Martin Maldonado $6 5

We hoped you liked reading Week 9 FAAB Projections by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Do you think there is any merit to not going all in this week? My biggest fear is blowing my load on one of the hitters (when pitching is my biggest need, and am certainly going ham on Martin) and then having Yordan Alvarez who is hitting the ball like no one ever has get called up, and not having enough money to get him.