Week 8 FAAB Projections

With just the normal closer speculation bids, I’d not be surprised if this week had the lowest percentage of remaining FAAB spent so far this season. With Derek Dietrich as the top prize on the hitting side, I don’t expect owners to be spending much.

The guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Week 8 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Stephen Vogt C | SF 0% 3% 3% $24
Charlie Tilson LF | CHW 0% 2% 2% $24
Mac Williamson LF | SF 1% 10% 9% $30
Josh VanMeter SS | CIN 1% 10% 9% $30
Ronny Rodriguez SS | DET 1% 9% 8% $29
Kelvin Gutierrez 3B | KC 2% 10% 8% $29
Gio Urshela 3B | NYY 2% 7% 5% $26
J.P. Crawford SS | SEA 5% 8% 3% $25
Derek Dietrich LF | CIN 8% 37% 29% $97
Raimel Tapia CF | COL 13% 20% 7% $31
Hunter Pence LF | TEX 14% 24% 10% $37
Cavan Biggio 2B | TOR 14% 16% 2% $27
Eric Sogard SS | TOR 15% 24% 9% $36
David Fletcher 2B | LAA 16% 22% 6% $32
Howie Kendrick 2B | WAS 16% 21% 5% $30
Kurt Suzuki C | WAS 17% 20% 3% $29
Austin Riley 3B | ATL 20% 23% 3% $30
Brendan Rodgers SS | COL 27% 31% 4% $36
James McCann C | CHW 28% 49% 21% $81
Chris Taylor SS | LAD 30% 37% 7% $42
Tommy La Stella 3B | LAA 31% 35% 4% $39
Brian Goodwin CF | LAA 32% 38% 6% $42
Yordan Alvarez LF | HOU 36% 46% 10% $54
Kole Calhoun RF | LAA 37% 44% 7% $49
Josh Phegley C | OAK 39% 48% 9% $55
Christian Vazquez C | BOS 39% 45% 6% $49
Jorge Soler RF | KC 40% 55% 15% $73
Hunter Renfroe LF | SD 42% 46% 4% $49
Jonathan Lucroy C | LAA 47% 65% 18% $94
Miguel Sano 3B | MIN 47% 51% 4% $54

● Derek Dietrich: He’s been hot this May hitting .308/.419/.885 with five homers after struggling over the first month of the season. He’s provided decent power from second base. I’m just surprised for the major jump in ownership.

● James McCann: Owners are still looking to play the hot hand (.436 BABIP). He hasn’t cooled off yet (.400 BABIP) this past week. With so many catchers struggling, he’s a reasonable add. I’m just surprised it took some owners so long.

● Hunter Pence: With the demotion of Delino DeShields, Pence’s path to playing time cleared up.

● Ronny Rodriguez (SB & HR), Charlie Tilson (SB), Mac Williamson (HR), Kelvin Gutierrez (AVG), and J.P. Crawford (SB): I’d not be surprised if one or two of these five are a top-40 hitter rest of season. Each one can provide help in at least one category and playing full-time can help in Runs and RBIs. It’s not going to take much FAAB this week to roster any of them. Look at your team’s needs and pick the player who can help before the price goes up.

● Josh VanMeter: I like the talent but he needs to find some playing time.

● Franklin Barreto: Julian McWilliams of The Athletic reports Barreto may be close to major league call up.

● Didi Gregorius: Owners may want to add him this week before the news hits of his rehab games and his price jumps.

Week 8 Pitcher FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Marcus Walden RP | BOS 2% 7% 5% $41
Brandon Workman RP | BOS 2% 6% 4% $40
Chris Martin RP | TEX 3% 13% 10% $26
Steve Cishek RP | CHC 4% 11% 7% $43
Jalen Beeks RP | TB 5% 9% 4% $23
Zac Gallen SP | MIA 8% 14% 6% $24
Jefry Rodriguez SP | CLE 9% 34% 25% $47
Trent Thornton RP | TOR 11% 19% 8% $25
Luke Jackson RP | ATL 14% 37% 23% $86
Danny Duffy SP | KC 14% 35% 21% $41
Tyler Mahle SP | CIN 16% 22% 6% $25
Jonathan Loaisiga RP | NYY 17% 32% 15% $33
Hansel Robles RP | LAA 17% 21% 4% $42
John Means RP | BAL 19% 28% 9% $27
Lou Trivino RP | OAK 21% 25% 4% $43
Mike Fiers SP | OAK 23% 37% 14% $33
Mychal Givens RP | BAL 23% 33% 10% $52
Lucas Giolito SP | CHW 26% 43% 17% $37
Shawn Kelley RP | TEX 26% 34% 8% $49
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 27% 33% 6% $26
Dakota Hudson RP | STL 28% 32% 4% $25
Chris Bassitt SP | OAK 29% 46% 17% $38
Casey Mize SP | DET 29% 33% 4% $26
Diego Castillo RP | TB 30% 36% 6% $47
Brett Anderson SP | OAK 31% 34% 3% $26
Spencer Turnbull SP | DET 33% 58% 25% $53
John Gant SP | STL 33% 38% 5% $47
Pablo Lopez SP | MIA 34% 38% 4% $27
Anthony DeSclafani SP | CIN 42% 74% 32% $73
Martin Perez SP | MIN 47% 85% 38% $93
Wade Miley SP | HOU 48% 53% 5% $31

Here are my rankings for the closers listed (* must roster in 15-team leagues)

  1. Michael Givens *
  2. Hansel Robles *
  3. Luke Jackson *
  4. Diego Castillo *
  5. Chris Martin *
  6. Steve Cishek *
  7. Lou Trivino
  8. Shawn Kelley
  9. Brandon Workman
  10. John Gant
  11. Marcus Walden

Trivino and Kelley are close to being must roster. There are several choices this week. Owners could try to go with some lower bids and cheaply settle for some names further down the list.

● Jefry Rodriguez: I gave my thoughts on him early this week while watching a game. He’s in the Freddy Peralta/Lance Lynn pitcher class who rely almost entirely on their fastball.

Again, not one starter is seeing any kind of ownership jump to warrant a major bid. If I need a starter this week, I’m probably going to bid low and shotgun several interesting arms. For reference, here are the players who saw ten bids during the same period last week and last season in the NFBC Main Event.

2019 Week 7 FAAB Results NFBC Main Event
Name Avg Bid Adds (38 total)
Griffin Canning $151 38
Nate Lowe $163 38
Kelvin Gutierrez $30 31
Jonathan Loaisiga $42 29
Lou Trivino $62 26
Derek Dietrich $77 24
Bryan Reynolds $26 21
Cal Quantrill $16 20
Jalen Beeks $24 20
Gio Gonzalez $49 17
Jefry Rodriguez $16 17
Didi Gregorius $15 16
Joakim Soria $17 16
Trent Thornton $29 15
Jon Duplantier $24 14
Reyes Moronta $15 14
Chris Iannetta $9 12
Dakota Hudson $41 12
Ian Kinsler $11 12
Sean Newcomb $25 12
Steven Duggar $22 12
Adam Wainwright $26 11
Felix Hernandez $12 11
Ian Kennedy $51 11
Lucas Giolito $33 11
Ronald Guzman $40 11
Ronny Rodriguez $20 11
Tyler Mahle $37 11
Chris Taylor $48 10
Danny Duffy $21 10
Seth Lugo $17 10
2018 Week 8 FAAB Results NFBC Main Event
Name Avg Bid Adds
Tyler Clippard $168 34
Bruce Rondon $51 28
Edubray Ramos $47 27
Zach Eflin $29 25
Kyle Freeland $38 25
Jim Johnson $33 25
Devin Mesoraco $26 23
Blake Parker $48 22
Brad Brach $77 19
Seung-Hwan Oh $29 19
Travis Jankowski $65 18
Nick Tropeano $37 16
Matt Harvey $32 16
Hernan Perez $16 15
Daniel Descalso $14 14
Sal Romano $15 14
Alex Gordon $30 12
Daniel Palka $11 12
Dustin Pedroia $17 11
Ryan Yarbrough $12 11
Ross Stripling $16 10

 

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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cavebirdcarteralang3131982Chris PryorSnake Clowns Recent comment authors
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stockhfcrx2
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stockhfcrx2

Deshields not Mallex, at least in re to pence. Thanks for this, very helpful!!!