We are another week into the season and it’s an interesting week of FAAB bidding. Some bids over 10% may occur if the player wasn’t rostered during the last week’s FAAB process. Otherwise, it’s some nice popup names as playing time begins to settle down.

As usual, the bids are estimates for the 15-team NFBC Main Event leagues which use $1000 in FAAB budget and a $1 minimum bis. CBS’s ownership rates are used since daily pickup leagues are allowed in some of their leagues so the ownership rate can increase before the weekly FAAB transactions run. I used a cutoff at 25% ownership in the previous week to add the player.

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It’s now time to go over the American League lineups. I feel some are just not set but it’s interesting seeing some of the early season adjustments.

Angels

• Zack Cozart leads off against lefties, Kole Calhoun against righties.
• The lineup may go into some flux with Andrelton Simmons possibly missing some time.
• Tommy La Stella, David Fletcher, and Cozart are in a three-way timeshare at second and third base.

Astros Read the rest of this entry »

Today finishes my examination of starting pitcher pitch mix and velocity from the first two days of the month. Some of the starters overlap from my first article and I used their combined numbers.

My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points or from 12% to 22%).

April 1st

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A few days ago, I examined the pitch mix and velocity for all the Opening Day starts. Today, I tried to catch up but failed. I just couldn’t examine another 30 pitchers. Tomorrow, I’m going to try my hardest to give a glimpse at everyone remaining.

My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Since there is a ton to get through, here are the daily starters ordered by fastball velocity change. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points).

March 29th

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Another week into the season and another week of drops. I’ve categorized all the drops in 10 or more NFBC Main Event Leagues and some other names I find interesting.

Hurt

• Steven Souza Jr. (27)
• Hunter Strickland (21)
• Andrew Heaney (14)
• Mark Trumbo (12): The 33-year-old is out at least two months and his owners are likely dealing with a roster crunch. On one team, I dropped Justin Upton.
• Corey Knebel (11)
• Elias Diaz (11)

Demoted

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Last season, I started collecting FAAB bids from the NFBC Main Event to help estimate the player costs. It’s time to start the 2019 estimates for week two. The process is far from perfect but it does provide a bidding guideline. I use the NFBC Main Event because it contains 37 15-team leagues but each individual league is going to have its own unique dynamics. Understanding and trackings the differences are key for each owner. Owners need to take these player guesstimates and see how they compare to their own league. It may seem like too much work but can really help to determine how much to spend.

In our book, The Process, Tanner Bell and I broke down the 2018 FAAB bidding in detail going over the various trends. We found that player bids fit into three types:

1. Minimum bids: These are $1/$0 bids for players only the person bidding desires. Owners need to find the corresponding ownership rates and the bids which won these players and stick to it. So many dollars are wasted on early season overbids on players only one person needs to fill in for an injured player.
2. Middle ground: I feel this area is where leagues are won and lost. Owners see players with new skills and/or playing time. The key with these players is to understand they can’t be had for $1 but an owner doesn’t need to drop >10% of their budget on them. It’s more of an art when bidding in this range.
3. Wallet openers: These players are going to go from anywhere between 10% to 50% of a budget. Usually, these players are rookie call-ups or new closers. The key may not be winning the bid as much as setting a limit to not cripple your team in the future.

Here are this week’s estimated FAAB with the ownership percentages from CBSSportsline and bid estimates for the NFBC Main Event ($1000 Budget, low bid of $1). I use CBS’s ownership rates since they divide the ownership by weeks but also allow daily pickups. An early player demand rate can be seen from these daily pickups.

Thoughts:

• My FAAB formula has the minimum bid this week at $25 dollars. I know bids can be lower, but teams historically have spent a few more dollars early to get their guy. Last year, over two-thirds of the week-two bids were over $10. The above players are in demand and will not be won for a minimum this week.
• There could be several wallet openers this week if the players slipped through the cracks and are available (Holland, Peralta, Lauer, Tatis, Beckham, Hernandez). The surprise jump for me is Eric Lauer. While I picked him up in several places as a streaming option, he now has some real trade value with his dominating win.
• In leagues where Tatis is available, I’d not be surprised at all if he goes for 50% of total FAAB. Personally, I’d max out around 20% to 25%.
• I added a few closer options, especially with the Hunter Strickland injury. The one arm I’m a little surprised is so low is Blake Parker. He may be Minnesota’s closer and only has a 14% ownership rate. Last week in Tout Wars, I pegged him as Wallet Opener and spent over $100 in FAAB on him. The next highest bid was $37. I should have used my own work to limit my bid and not waste the $70 in FAAB.
• For reference, here are players picked up the most last season along with the average bids.

If any stat can be monitored with a small sample, it’s pitch velocity. Fastball velocity stabilized with a sample of ‘1’. Just one fastball is enough to know a pitcher’s velocity going forward. I collected the Opening Day starters’ fastball velocities and compared them to last year’s values. It’s all we can really do at this point in the season.

Additionally, I compared this year’s and last year’s pitch mix. Mainly, I was hoping to find if a starter dumped or added a pitch. I didn’t mention a pitch if its usage didn’t change by  10% points or more.

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I’ve been considering this article’s concept for a while and am going to try it out for a couple of weeks and see if it is useful. I’ll spend three hours catching an hour of three different games and writing my thoughts and diving into deeper into areas of fantasy interest. Here is take #1 and let me know your thoughts.

Orioles at Yankees

• It was an easy choice for taking this game. Scherzer versus deGrom sounded like a 1-0 game with the Mets bullpen letting deGrom down (I was close but wrong).
• The top of the Orioles lineup could steal a few bases nothing to play for and Cedric Mullins, Dwight Smith Jr., and Jonathan Villar as those first three. I had to examine Smith and determined why I didn’t know more about him. He’s kind of boring with a projection near 10 homers, 10 steals, and a .240 average. Maybe it will be just Mullins and Villar stealing bases.
• Like it’s going to matter but Andrew Cashner’s velocity was up a tick.
• Luke Voit with a bomb (113 mph) to straightaway center. His power is legit and needs to be in the Yankees lineup every day.
• Additionally, Luke Voit possesses some 80-grade hair.

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As the regular season nears, I’m trying to stay on top of any lineup changes. It’s the National League’s turn to go under the microscope.

Arizona

• The Diamondbacks lineup is in flux with Steven Souza Jr. possibly having a messed up knee. Adam Jones may have stumbled into some full-time reps and possibly Jarrod Dyson if Jones’s defense is subpar.
• Ketel Marte has not been playing in the outfield, so the center field experiment may be over before it even started. The problem is that there aren’t enough infield spots to go around. The biggest issue is that Nick Ahmed has played shortstop in five of the last seven games. Eduardo Escobar seems entrenched at third. So the Wilmer Flores experiment may be over at second base (Marte’s spot) and Flores and Jake Lamb will platoon at first.

Atlanta Read the rest of this entry »