Author Archive

Who is Being Dropped & Why

Instead of call-ups, I’m finding most of my gems in last week’s trash. Here are the players dropped the most in the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues

Demoted

  • Corbin Martin (25): A 5.59 BB/9 and a matching ERA means he is off to the minors.
  • Devin Smeltzer (23): With Michael Pineda off the DL, Smeltzer and his 89-mph fastball are back in the minors.
  • Willians Astudillo (18): There is just no room for this fan favorite on the team. Marwin Gonzalez is a perfect utility player while Mitch Garver (1.103 OPS) and Jason Castro (.933 OPS) can handle the catching duties.
  • Daniel Mengden (13): Mengden is an instance of an owner trying to get a jump on a possible two-start week against Tampa and Seattle. Then he went out in his one start and allowed six runs in just over two innings of work.
  • Garrett Hampson (11): He’s back in AAA since he just can’t find his footing in the majors (.186/.231/.258)

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the FAAB bids in the two Tout Wars mixed leagues

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: CMoran: 57
LGurriel: 53
JJones: 33
ASampson: 29
CSisco: 26
SAlcantara: 24
AniSanchez: 22
FValdez: 22
ESogard: 19
JDuplantier: 16
FPeralta: 14
JBeeks: 13
HAlberto: 6
RMartin: 4
JVargas: 4
CPuello: 4
JGant: 3
MWacha: 3
NAnderson: 1
DFreese: 0

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: FValdez: 70
JEickhoff: 43
RYarbrough: 34
ADeSclafani: 23
MKelly: 21
TDArnaud: 17
PLambert: 13
BWorkman: 7
EThames: 6
ASampson: 5
RoPerez: 4
CAdams: 3
CMaybin: 2
HAlberto: 2
JChoi: 2
PSeverino: 2
JNaylor: 1
EFedde: 1

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Week 12 FAAB Projections

I feel the fantasy baseball season is at the part of the season where few “new” call-ups happen. Instead, it’s players we’ve already known about coming into and out of playing time. Garrett Cooper has been around for a couple of weeks but just now he’s seeing his ownership jump. I’ve noticed many of the movers are on 2nd or 3rd division teams. Owners are a little slow at knowing how the playing time shakes out on these sub-.500 teams. Bargains can be found in them.

The guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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AL Lineup Analysis

Angels

  • Albert Pujols has started only six of the last 10 games.
  • Brian Goodwin is hitting (.211/.244/.263) over the past two weeks after a hot start.
  • Since May 21st when Andrelton Simmons went on the IL and Luis Rengifo was forced into a fulltime role, Rengifo is hitting .302/.387/.415 with no speedin 15 of 16 games.

Astros

  • With George Springer on the IL, Derek Fisher is leading off and hitting .262/.326/.429.
  • Yuli Gurriel is still batting fourth even though he’s hitting .240/.257/.323 over the last month.
  • Jack Mayfield is hitting .074/.107/.222 while playing in seven of the last 10 games at a middle infield position.
  • I’m guessing Tyler White (.220/.313/.293) will head to the bench one anyone returns from the IL with Fisher or Tony Kemp taking his place.

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Two-Start Rankings: What’s the Cutoff?

In last week’s “Who is Being Dropped & Why”, I noted the following on Jeremy Hellickson

At home, he faced the Mets and Cubs and they lit him up. I went back over the previous two weeks in the NFBC Main Event to see if owners targeted him for this two-step. In the Main Event, owners typically look two weeks ahead on the two-start pitchers to get a jump on the crowd.

Week: Add Count, Avg Bid
8: 7, $14
9: 5, $5

First, I found it a little funny that the owners hoped to get a jump on the bidding paid more. Second, almost all of the Hellickson shares added were then dropped (12 of 13).

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FAAB Spending Comparison in 12 and 15-Team Leagues

Today’s data dump is brought to you by Paul Sporer and Justin Mason. In a recent Sleeper and the Bust episode, they were frustrated with not knowing how bidding in a 12-team league compared to a 15-teamer. I decided to go ahead and dive into the bidding in the NFBC’s 12-team Online Championship and the 15-team Main Event.

Note: I worked on this article over the weekend and only had this season’s FAAB data up to week 10. By the time the article publishes, week 11 will be available. The results wouldn’t change much with one additional week.

First, here is some background information on the league types. They are exactly identical in these ways:

  • 23 total starters, 9 pitchers, 14 hitters
  • $1000 in FAAB to spend with no Vickrey bidding and the results run on Sunday evening.
  • No $0 bids.
  • Seven bench spots.
  • Both have a league and overall prize.

As for the differences, one is obvious, one has 12 teams and the other 15 teams. The less obvious one is that the 12-team leagues, on average, start drafting earlier in the preseason. For this reason, MLB teams have more time to churn their rosters and deal with injuries making the first FAAB period a little more aggressive compared to the 15-team leagues.

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:21
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello, I’m still getting things together.

7:21
Jeff Zimmerman: Translation: I need to get a beer.

7:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are tonight’s FAAB bids from the two 15-team mixed Tout Wars leagues:

7:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction:

7:22
Jeff Zimmerman: NGoodrum: 108
DStewart: 79
DSmeltzer: 64
YGurriel: 53
ZPlesac: 48
ARussell: 44
DPhelps: 39
CAnderson: 38
HRamirez: 31
DomSmith: 29
IKennedy: 26
EPagan: 24
NAhmed: 22
ABass: 22
TFrazier: 16
JJunis: 13
DFisher: 12
EFedde: 11
MWieters: 9
JJeffress: 7
SArmstrong: 5
AJurado: 3
KNewman: 2
RoPerez: 1
PSeverino: 1
BDixon: 0

7:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft:

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FAAB Projections for Week 11

I thought some weeks were boring but this week may take the cake. Some interesting rookie starters like Devin Smeltzer and Zach Plesac are available but it’s a whole lot of blah.

Again, here are the parameters for the values.

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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AL Lineup Analysis (5/30/19)

Angels

  • Luis Rengifo has started eight straight games with no power (.034 ISO) and zero stolen base attempts.
  • Since Zack Cozart went on the IL, the players in the lineup have stayed constant besides Jared Walsh giving Albert Pujols a break every third day or so.

Astros

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Who is Being Dropped & Why

This past week’s Sunday night’s FAAB bidding was fairly calm after FAAB-ageddon. Even with else action, I find some of the drops interesting.

Note: Normally, I focus on players dropped in 10 or more leagues of the 38 but the five players dropped in nine leagues are the most interesting so I included them.

Injured

  • Wilmer Flores (27): Fractured foot means bye-bye.
  • Andrelton Simmons (20): I held onto Simmons utilizing the following news. Rostering him with limited roster space comes down to how many other injured players are on the team.

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