With the season delayed, I’ve had time to dive into some shelved projects including creating some unique projections. Today, I’m going to introduce my StatCast hitter projections.

I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:

“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very acurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.

…

Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “

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The last of the Finding Giolito series comes to pause. I couldn’t find any footage on Logan Webb and the Manaea video was crap. That said, the Garrett Richards looked great.

Garrett Richards (Padres, RHP)

Games

• 3/3/20
• 3/9/20

Notes

• Pitches straight ahead attacking the plate.
• The slider has a curveball shape but in the low 90’s.
• He never controlled the curve in either game. He was just giving away those pitches.
• In the third inning of the 3/9 game, he lost control of everything. He might have tried throwing his change since he bounced a couple pithces way in front of the plate.
• While the broadcast talked of the changeup, I didn’t notice him throwing one else it was one of the pitches he bounced.

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No.

Last week I started a series on finding the potential Spring Training breakouts based on increased velocity and a possible new pitch. I planned on going in-depth on a couple of guys but found no game footage for Nick Pivetta, Danny Duffy, and John Means. Instead, I pivoted to Alec Mills.

Alec Mills

Improvements

• Fastball velo up 0.8 mph.
• New two-seam grip.

Games watched

• 2/26/20: 2 IP, Best game to watch. Good camera angle and pitch velos.
• 3/7/20: 3.2 IP, Horrible camera angle.
• 3/11/20: 1 IP

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I’m continuing my quest to find the next Lucas Giolito breakout and failed with these two. They both were to be adding slider and some added velocity.

Tyle Mahle: Reds right-handed pitcher

Games

• 2/29/20
• 3/5/20

Notes:

• Some rise on the fastball but it’s really straight (95 and 97 mph from broadcast on two pitches).
• The curve was inconsistent and he hung a few.
• Just didn’t throw a put-away pitch in the second game.
• He had no feel for the splitter at all in the 3/5 game. It was better in the 2/29 game.
• I wasn’t sure what he was doing. He might not of known either.

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I don’t know how many times I’ve been asked this offseason, “Who is this season’s Giolito?” So I’m supposed to know of a pitcher who was completely useless the previous season but is going to throw harder, find the strike zone, and rework his repertoire. Yea … I wish. But we can start diving in and I’ve found 10 arms who may pull it off.

The elusive list of 10 pitchers came taking anyone on Jason Collette’s New Pitch Tracker with anyone who saw a velocity increase in the first Spring Training. Initially, 12 pitchers made cut.

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Note: I’d like to grade out both of their pitches more but the camera angles where sh …. not good.

Kwang Hyun Kim

LHP on the Cardinals

Games watched

• Feb 22: 1 IP (in rain with ump covering the catcher’s glove)
• Mar 9: 3 IP

Projections and comps from earlier this offseason.

The projected talent should play with comparable projected pitchers being Jesus Luzardo (3.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Sonny Gray (3.91, 1.30), and Carlos Martinez (3.97, 1.33).

One game that was not on MLB.tv had StatCast velocity readings and here are his pitch velocities.

• Fastball: 90-93
• Slider (Change): 83-86
• Curve: 69-71
• Cutter: 88- 89
• Split: 77-78

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In my Tout Wars auction held just over a week ago, 72 players were rostered who cost just $1. While I rostered my standard four, one owner got 10 with two others at nine*. I wondered if there is a point that having too many $1 players on a team is a detriment.

First, a little background on the auction. Here is the plot of the auction bids compared to the actual 2019 results.

The 2019 production leader was at $47 (Razzball) and $43 (FanGraphs auction calculator). Six players went at or above the $47 mark and eight over $43. The idea of spending more early on is to grab some $2 to $8 guys in the end game for $1. In this auction, everyone was taking that approach. I used my standard “lesser stars and scrubs” approach.
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This past weekend, I missed out on one of my favorite weekends when I head to New York for the Tout Wars 15-team mixed auction and the NFBC Main Event. While the NFBC Main Event was postponed, the Tout Wars auction went on but from the confines of our homes. Here are a few observations on a team I may not get to manage this year and how can these industry drafts help the people in their own leagues.

Thanks to Fred Zinkie and Tanner Bell who both jumped on Skype with me to bounce ideas off and at least giving me someone to talk to.

Preparation

Simply, I have a whole book on how I prepped for the auction. I didn’t deviate from it except in the following few ways. Each will be incorporated into future editions of The Process.

First, I split apart the player pool into four groups: Catchers, non-catchers, starters, and closers. The tendencies of the league are set with each group having their own valuations. The big change for me is a separate catcher group. I didn’t go through the whole replacement level valuations that boost up some catchers into the top-20 players and mess with the auction dollar distribution. Instead, I made them their own player pool. After catchers messed up my hitter valuations in LABR, I adjusted and fewer in auction adjustments were needed.
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