I’ve completed two 15-team, 50-player draft-and-hold leagues and started two more. While I feel I have a decent understanding of the player pool, after pick 500 I’m unfamiliar with many of the players being drafted. This series will rectify that for me and hopefully other owners can find it useful.
To find the names, I just started working my way down the NFBC ADP list until I said “Who?” As I found out diving into the players, I don’t know may of the young prospects. And backup catchers. And middle relievers. Besides the who players
I missed those five great major league innings at the season’s end. While he’s always been able to strikeout about 1.5 batters per inning, his walk rate hovers around 6.0 BB/9. There is a chance he could close but I think he needs Brad Hand and Nick Wittgren to get hurt and/or suck. And also probably Oliver Perez and Emmanuel Clase. I’m going to pass.
My ignorance on the top prospects immediately shows up with our 56th ranked prospect. Reports have him with a 94-mph fastball and a great curve. He’s a dart throw around pick 500 but the innings are limited since his season-high is 112 IP. Also, he dealt with a shoulder injury last season. There are just pitchers going later which I think will contribute more next season.
Another late-season bullpen promotion I missed. He posted OK numbers coming through the minors. His high-90’s fastball and plus slider make him interesting. He was moved into the bullpen late in the season after having problems staying healthy as a starter. The most innings he’s thrown in a season is 101.
I bet the Twins try him as a starter one more time, but with a limited workload. I might take a chance on him in re-draft leagues to see what the Twins plans are for him. If he is not in the MLB rotation, I can quickly move on.
Stallings is not a complete sink at the catcher position and if few batted balls fall his way, he might be a most own. His projections have him with about seven to eight homers and a .256 AVG. In the minors, he’s had several batting averages over .300. Last season it was 8 HR in 271 PA. It’s not out of the possibility that he hits .280 with 20 homers.
Tuivailala is a bullpen arm I’ve never been interested in. Probably because in 124 games, he as just seven Holds and no Saves. The reason his stock is up is that the Mariners bullpen stinks and he could get some Saves if Matt Magill doesn’t cut it.
Another bullpen arm I missed and he got two Saves in 25 games. A strikeout rate over 10 is a given. He’s shown some walk issues. Also, he gives up a ton of flyballs and therefore home runs. The teams who draft Archie Bradley in draft-and-hold leagues may be picking up Ginkel for insurance. Otherwise, I have no interest.
I missed a ton of information with him and that is why I do this list. He came to the plate 242 times in the majors. Additionally, he had 15 homers and nine steals over three levels (~500 PA). On top of his late-round stats, he is expected to be the Phillies starting center fielder. He should be going much higher.
The 21-year-old is going to need to take a major step forward have any value next season. Even though he made it to AAA, he just projects out to 12 HR and 8 SB with a .250 AVG. No job. Limited talent … for now. Pass.
Great AA numbers at 18 HR, 21 SB, and .301 AVG in 452 PA. That’s the rub, he’s only been to AA and the Diamondbacks have Carson Kelly and Stephen Vogt in the majors catching. This seems like one season too soon.
While he’s not ranked as a top-100 prospect here at FanGraphs, he’s made it as far as AA with great results (17.4 K/9, 2.13 ERA). His arsenal is average to above average across the board. His value comes down to how quickly the Tigers promoted him an the other pitching prospects.
He’s a hard-thrower who doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate and walks too many batters. And didn’t allow any home runs to keep his ERA under 3.00 while his other estimators are over 4.00. Pass.
Oh damn … that Rafael Montero. I thought he was dead. He was quite dominating in 29 IP with a 2.48 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 0.97 WHIP. He’s got a 96-mph fastball and a good change (18% SwStr%) and slider (14%). I’m all back in with him as Jose Leclerc insurance.
Think of a worse version of today’s Billy Hamilton and put him at shortstop. That’s Willi Castro. No power. No plate discipline. Can’t make contact. But he can steal some. Pass.
Allen, part of the Jurickson Profar trade, is an all power catcher with 21 homers in less than 300 AAA plate appearances. While struggling in the majors, he could see more time if Sean Murphy gets hurt.
While some beat your favorite author leagues will be starting soon, feel free to go to the NFBC and sign up for their Draft or Online Championships. Also, for those with deeper pocketbooks, the NFBC Main Events are quickly filling up.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.