Monday Night Fantasy Baseball Chat by Jeff Zimmerman January 20, 2020 8:02 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s time to get started. 8:03 Isaac C: Any recommendations for first time players in the NFBC. Asking more about what’s a good level to start playing at? 8:04 Jeff Zimmerman: An online championship. The FAAB process and bi-weekly lineup setting can be learned with one. 8:04 Dragoon: 14 team dynasty points. I have an excess of 1B. Should I trade A) 5 years of Pete Alonso for 2 years of Story, 2 years of Conforto, 6 years of Tony Gonsolin B) 5 years of Pete Alonso for 1 year of Mookie, rookie roster Ian Anderson, Trevor Larnach, Astudillo or C) Hold 8:05 Jeff Zimmerman: I like A a lot. 8:05 Ned: How many plate appearances for Miguel Andujar this year? 8:05 Jeff Zimmerman: 300 at most. It’s not a good situation for him right now. 8:05 abel: how much stock do you put in the SMART strategy? seems sensible enough, but wouldn’t the scarcity element have you taking catchers and closers and 1b very early? seems so…dirty and wrong. 8:07 Jeff Zimmerman: It has some good points and don’t mind valuing those positions early but if their ADP is later, just wait. 8:07 Escobar: $10 vladito for a $13 Buehler in a points dynasty league? Thanks 8:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Vlad, I’ll lean hitter most of the time 8:07 Thank you for the chat!: What are your thoughts on who could emerge as fantasy relevant from the SF bullpen? 8:07 Jeff Zimmerman: I think Gausman will be the best arm this season. 8:07 Fangraph’s Lurker: the best rookie eligible player on the white sox will be ______? 8:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Roberts … 8:08 Thank you for the chat!: Does Deivi Garcia have a chance to break camp with the NYY? 8:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Without any injuries, no. The rotation is too deep. 8:08 BA: When making your own custom rankings what advanced metric(s) do you consider the greatest tool in predicting success 8:09 Jeff Zimmerman: lineups. 8:09 Jeff Zimmerman: For pitchers, I look at individual pitch metrics 8:10 Jay: 10-team / keep 7 (weekly H2H, points based system, not roto); any mistakes if I hold Freeman / Acuna, JDM, Blackmon / Cole, Verlander, Sale and trade or throw back Morton, Nola, Goldschmidt, Tim Anderson, Justin Turner? 8:10 Jeff Zimmerman: I could be talked into swaping Goldy for Sale. 8:10 Yordan: How big a value is shohei conpared to a comparable hitter who doesnt pitch. 8:12 Jeff Zimmerman: All depends on league type and how the website handles his duel elligibility Daily moves, a second rounder. In weekly moves, After the top-100 8:12 Thank you for the chat!: In your early views on the upcoming season, where do you see the most group think from your competitors? And what opportunities do you see to zag when they are all zigging? 8:14 Jeff Zimmerman: I think closers are now a great value where they are going. There is always that one or two guys who jump on closers and last year, they got burnt. They are backing off, so I think everyone is waiting. 8:14 Dildo Shwaggins: My buddy and I got into a discussion that turned into a bet…who would have more homers this year…G Stanton or J Abreu. I took Stanton. Who u got? 8:14 Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton 8:14 Smokey: Who is the next Lucas Giolito? 8:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Giolito was a unicorn last season. We have no idea who will 1) find the strike zone 2)gain sign velo 3)rework pitch mix. The only way to find them is to watch ST games or the first week of the season. 8:16 Smitty: What can we expect from N Solak now that Frazier is in tow? 8:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Right now, he might not make the team and could be demoted on who they sign. I think someone will struggle (e.g. Odor) and Solack will then take over about mid-May. I’m staying away from Solack but if he hits the wire, I’ll grab him in season. 8:18 Kenny G: Can Kiermaier pull off a 20/20 this year? 8:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Sure if he answers the most important question, can he stay healthy. 8:18 Powder blue: What do you see in Scott kingery this year? How many PA’s? Does he make way for Alex da bohm 8:19 Jeff Zimmerman: Good question 8:20 Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will start him until he fails. I like him but I need to know that I might need to immediately move on. 8:20 Big Tuna: Do you have any stats in particular you like using when looking at MiLB guys to determine if they have translatable fantasy skills? 8:20 Jeff Zimmerman: The Voit-Muncy list for me 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/why-we-missed-wendle-muncy-voit/ 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: For pitchers, it’s more feel. They can change so much. 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: I try to catch one of their starts 8:22 Thank you for the chat!: How ugly would real baseball be if the managers made playing time decisions to optimize for fantasy baseball outcomes? 8:22 Jeff Zimmerman: There would be more stolen bases in which I’m all for. 8:23 Dildo Shwaggins: What are u setting Byron Buxton’s over/under for games played this year? 8:23 Jeff Zimmerman: 120? 8:23 Muncy Indiana: Who is your favorite source of late speed at the moment? Maybe a dead cat bounce from deshields? 8:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Jorge Mateo, he’s out of options and can run. 8:25 Kaiser Soze: Do u think balls and strikes should be determined electronically and without bias…or should we just take a guy’s opinion like always? 8:26 Jeff Zimmerman: I like the umps. Adds strategy to the game. And many of the “bad” calls is from the catcher standing up in front of the ump. 8:26 RMR: How much of mitch keller’s issues last year were plain bad luck? It’s obviously a decent amount, but I feel like some are completely waiving away his issues and pointing to the measures where he performed well. 8:27 Jeff Zimmerman: A lot of it. I’m willing to role the dice on him and he could be a top-15 talent. 8:27 Scott: Jeff, are you fading any of the Astros this year? And provide a worry meter from most worried to least. Ex. Altuve/Bregman/Springer/Alavarez/Gurriel 8:28 Jeff Zimmerman: Not at all. Wrote why: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/should-projections-for-astros-hitters-be… 8:28 RMR: Where is Edmans PT gonna come from? 8:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Good question. I’m fading him hard because of it. He looks to be a utility bat. The Cards have no problems sitting good bats as seen with Jose Martinez 8:29 Stormy D: Is the Franimal the next Aaron Judge? 8:29 Jeff Zimmerman: No… that’s not even close 8:30 Sweet Daddy Wags: Dynasty points league. Merrifield, Lux or Biggio? 8:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Lux 8:30 Dildo Shwaggins: Jorge Soler…was it a fluke last year or could he repeat those numbers again? 8:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. 20% chance. 8:31 Glass Family Hot Tub: Who will you feel dirtiest about picking up for SBs? 8:31 Jeff Zimmerman: Robles. I’ve screwed up the draft if I’m picking him. 8:31 RMR: How are you projecting akiyama? Heard someone saying something like eaton. Does that sound about right? 8:32 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s close. I’m writing up my projections tomorrow for RG. He might be a 15/15 guy. 8:32 Mark: Is there a Closer who you think is Undervalued ? 8:33 Jeff Zimmerman: Magill made some late season changes which allow him to be a stud. 8:33 The Process: Is z-score method the same as the auction calculator? 8:34 Jeff Zimmerman: Really close. The AC is closer to PMV 8:34 Glass Family Hot Tub: Buy any Royals batters after Mondesi, Soler, Merrifield, Perez, and Dozier? 8:34 Jeff Zimmerman: For those looking for steals, a late gamble on Lopez might be worth it. 8:35 Craig: Marcus Stroman last 6 GS with the Mets was dynamite. A sign of things to come? 8:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Possibly. I don’t trust the Blue Jays to get the best out of their “cost controlled” pitchers. One issue is that Stroman is always pitching from behind 8:36 Solak: GM talked about him potentially getting time in CF on a dallas radio show. They will find a place for him. Beat writers think theyll add another Corner OF or 1B/3B type 8:36 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s a mess 8:36 RMR: I’m planning to keep 3 SP (snell, severino, syndergaard). I usually try to add 1-2 bounceback type vet SPs before I dive into the younger guys (i.e. gallen, montas, luzardo, fried, etc.) Unfortunately ik not really liking the vet arms in that area this year. Would you endorse a strategy of going with some of those young guys first and then doubling back to grab a couple vets? I always like to diversify to some degree (i.e. not go all upside). 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: There is a decent batch of younger arms that I realy like. In my two drafts so far, I may grab an ace and they get several arms in the 8 to 12 round. 8:38 Kevin: Paul and Justin seem to be big believers in Fried this year. You buying too? Top 25 guy? 8:39 Jeff Zimmerman: There is no reason Soroka should be going before Fried 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Fried out peformed Soroka in every aspect except ERA. 8:40 Scott: 2018 ball or 2019 ball for 2020? 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: 2019 to start with 8:40 Craig: King Felix have a shot as 5th SP in ATL? 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: No … 8:40 Nicholas: Which team has the fewest fantasy relevant players? 8:41 Jeff Zimmerman: Colorado and Baltimore have to pitchers at all. With Colorado having 3-4 bats worth starting every series, I’ll lean Baltimore. 8:41 Craig: Breakout catcher this year? 8:42 Jeff Zimmerman: Kelly in AZ and Barnhart in Cin made some changes which may stick 8:42 Estel: Dear Jeff, first auction draft for me, please advise should I go heavy with top players i love or remain passive? 8:43 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m passive but if you feel you need to pay up, do it for steals 8:43 Longrod von Hugendong: M Sano…900+ OPS last year…ADP is 175 on RTSports points leagues. He’s criminally underrated, no? 8:44 Jeff Zimmerman: Especially since he’ll have 1B in a week or so. One issue is that NFBC leagues play for the overall so anyone who drains an AVG gets knock down hard. 8:44 Diggy: Do you have cause to believe Muncy is going to get worse this year? 8:44 Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing I know of 8:44 Longrod von Hugendong: Yu Darvish or Max Fried? 5X5 leagues. 8:45 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d go Darvish. He was insane in the 2H 8:45 Craig: Who produces more in ROTO next year – Bryce Harper or Javy Baez? 8:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Baez 8:45 Alfred the Butler: Kris Bryant. Buying, Selling, Holding for 2020. For beyond? 8:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Hold 8:45 RMR: I feel like people are REALLY down on benintendi. He was a top ten OF in our league (obp with Ks as a category for hitters) just a year ago. I know 2019 was ugly but are people overreacting to a bad year? Looks like he was tinkering with approach last year and it just didnt work. Is it as simple as going back to what he was doing before? 8:47 Jeff Zimmerman: It might no be simple to go back and who knows about the steals. And once he struggled, he go dropped in the lineup. While some rebound is expected, I don’t see anything in his profile to expect more than his projection. 8:47 Bale: MLB Network’s “Top Ten Right Now” had Muncy as the number 2 first baseman in all of baseball. Does that hold for fantasy as well? 8:47 Jeff Zimmerman: No 8:47 Craig: Do you look at the way pitchers end the season when projecting for the following season? 8:48 Jeff Zimmerman: I look for late season changes. 8:49 Jeff Zimmerman: For example, Eduardo Rodriguez made some late season changes to keep the ball on the ground more and the home runs he allowed dropped. 8:49 Jeff Zimmerman: Not some much the results but why. 8:50 Dan: Mistake to use your first round pick on a pitcher in standard 5×5? Feels like you end up weak in a skill position, versus being able to compensate with streaming pitchers 8:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Some numbers point to the first four picks should be pitchers. The top arms are way better than the pack. While no one will take Cole #1 overall, it is defensible. 8:51 Kevin: Segura back to 20-25 steals with Kapler gone or is this an organizational approach? 8:52 Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure but I gave him a boost and he’ll likely get 2B elligibiltiy at some point. 8:52 Jay: Outside of CA, which position do you expect to be most shallow this year? 8:53 Jeff Zimmerman: 2B is little rough in patches. And becaus of this, bad 2B are getting pushed up. 8:53 Rotorotoroto: Which way will the Javy Baez rollercoaster go this year? Is he worth the gamble in shallow leagues (12-teamers) 8:53 Jeff Zimmerman: His production was good last year. I’ll ride it all the time. 8:54 Craig: What categories/stats/trends do you look closest at when projecting SP’s? 8:54 Jeff Zimmerman: Velocity and pitch mix changes. Also Zone%. 8:54 Alfred the Butler: Read another site that talked about Ty France, a guy I had never heard of, and that’s rare (sick brag). Any thoughts on him for 10tm NL only? 8:56 Jeff Zimmerman: He was up last year and I recomended him. He’s OK but the Padres have so many options. He’s tough to roster without a job but if he gets one, feel free to pick him up 8:56 Rotorotoroto: Will you be stacking any Travis Shaw shares? Sounds like he thinks his struggles were rooted in offseason swing tinkering 8:56 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes … I read that. Great rebound canidate 8:56 UDFro: Do you see Austin Meadows finishing as a top 15 OF? 8:57 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe top-5 to 10 8:57 Logan: Gone are the heady days of Cano, Murphy, Dozier, Pedroia, etc. What is your plan for 2B this year? 8:57 Jeff Zimmerman: DJL 8:58 Rotorotoroto: I think its sporer who thinks Trevor Bauer is fancy robbie ray. Are you low on him as well for similar reasons? 8:59 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d just count on the K’s from Bauer and nothing more. 8:59 Celtics Fan: A lot of 2nd halfs speed guys I am trying to parse through. K Wong. Rosario. Mercado. Anybody stand out for you? Do you think September call ups affect speed more adversely with inexperience pitchers being poor at holding on the runner? 8:59 Jeff Zimmerman: I love Mercado since he has some power. He’s a decent hitter. 9:00 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m a fan of Tim Anderson because he quit running because of the injury. He could go off. 9:01 Jeff Zimmerman: That’s it for tonight. Hopefully my kids schedule opens up and I can chat next week.