Mining the News (1/23/20)

• Here is a loaded Tweet:

Dave Martinez revealed Friday the clearest picture yet of the Nats’ plans this year. They’re betting on Carter Kieboom at 3B and…
• Starlin Castro everyday 2B
• He thinks Zim reunion will happen
• Lineup shuffling could include Trea Turner hitting 3rdhttps://t.co/ziJg1M5s6d

— Sam Fortier (@Sam4TR) January 17, 2020

Starting with Turner, I think this gives him a bump in value. His Run-RBI mix will be closer to 1:1. Additionally, I compared all hitters projected for 30+ steals and how often they attempted steals from the first and third lineup spots in the same season. The drop was between one and two stolen bases. It’s a change but nothing to get too worked up about. The like 50 extra RBIs is a much bigger deal.

Also, with Starlin Castro at second and Carter Kieboom at third, Asdrúbal Cabrera’s fantasy value tanks.

• In deeper formats, don’t forget to take a flier on Yoenis Céspedes to make it back to the bigs since he’s “sprinting”. He’s been going after pick 450, so his cost is little to nothing right now.

• The Rays are back and determining who plays where and how much is already confusing. Here is the first base and DH talk:

During Martínez’s four-year career, it has been no secret what he does best. He crushes left-handed hitting, and that’s what the Rays will primarily expect out of the 31-year-old. Martínez has a career .976 OPS against left-handers. But for him to gain more playing time, he’s going to have to prove that he can hit right-handed pitching and be at least somewhat serviceable at first base. If he does not show defensive improvement, Martínez will likely just serve as the team’s designated hitter against lefties.

Martínez’s performance could impact Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe. Choi is expected to get the majority of the reps at first base after posting a strong second half last season. His playing time would only be affected if Martínez shows improvement defensively, and even then, Choi shouldn’t worry about playing time — as long as he’s hitting. For Lowe, the young first baseman could benefit from starting the season at Triple-A Durham in order to get regular at-bats. Lowe showed off his power last season, launching seven home runs in 152 at-bats, and he will contribute at the big league level at some point during the year.

And some third base talk.

Just like first base, Rays manager Kevin Cash will have some juggling to do with playing time at the hot corner. Yandy Díaz will spend the most time at third against southpaws. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo will have to prove that he can play the position in the spring, and if he does, he’ll get some time against right-handed hitting. There’s also Joey Wendle, who can play all over the infield. While it may seem like the Rays have too many mouths to feed, last season proved that injuries are part of the game and Tampa Bay would benefit from depth throughout the 162-game season.

A nice little mess.

• Everyone can tap the brakes a bit on the Cavan Biggio to centerfield hype train.

Based on comments from Montoyo, Biggio in centre appears to be nothing more than a contingency plan. Maybe he’ll get reps there during spring training. But if he doesn’t, Montoyo won’t play him there in-season. “That’s not fair for the kid,” he explained.

So, who then will be in centre field for the 2020 Jays? It’s currently under discussion. Barring a major upgrade on the trade front, the team will likely go with either Teoscar Hernández or [Randal] Grichuk in centre. Meanwhile, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has the inside track on left field, while Derek Fisher, Jonathan Davis, Anthony Alford and Billy McKinney will fight for the remaining outfielder jobs.

• Matt Shoemaker is 100% healthy … for now.

“I’m ready to go,” he said.

For three straight years, Shoemaker has seen his season interrupted by injury, with the latest being a freak ACL tear that ended his 2019 in April. It was even more heartbreaking considering Shoemaker had got off to a blistering pace on the mound, pitching to a 1.57 ERA through five starts.

But after about six months of grueling rehab, Shoemaker was cleared to throw off a mound in October. It’s been a normal offseason routine for him since and he is expected to be a key piece of the rotation this season.

• It looks like the Mariners have no issues putting Dee Gordon and his ~$14M contract on the bench this next season to find out what they have in Shed Long Jr.

Figuring out Gordon’s role will be one of the stories to watch this spring as Long definitely figures to get much of the playing time at second base as part of the youth movement. Gordon is capable of backing up at shortstop as well, so he could find sporadic playing time at both those positions and be a veteran mentor to Long and J.P. Crawford.

Should either of those players get injured, Gordon would be the logical replacement at this point and the new 26-man roster limit could help Seattle carry him as an extra infielder. But given he turns 32 in April and is entering the final year of a contract paying him $13.8 million for 2020, Gordon isn’t in the club’s long-term plans, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he’s eventually traded, designated for assignment or released.

• Since Adam Plutko is out of options, he’s likely in the Indians rotation with Zach Plesac on the outside looking in.

The second thing that makes this such a tough question is that the Indians have three experienced hurlers to earn the final two spots. Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale saved the Tribe last year as the club’s pitching staff battled through endless injuries. But now that Adam Plutko is out of options, the Indians will have to decide if they want him in the rotation or the bullpen. The best guess is that they will start the year with him in the rotation and, if all else fails, they’ll shift him out and call up one of their younger arms.

With all that being said, the best early predication of a starting rotation would be:

1) Clevinger
2) Bieber
3) Carrasco
4) Civale
5) Plutko

• Monte Harrison will step in for Lewis Brinson in Florida’s outfield when Brinson struggles.

Harrison is already on the 40-man roster, so creating roster space for him isn’t an issue. My only concern with Harrison is whether he is completely ready, especially after being limited to 56 games at Triple-A last year. He missed time due to a right wrist injury that led to surgery. Still, Harrison performed at Triple-A, hitting .274 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases.

• Luis Arraez is expected to be the Twins full-time second baseman.

Speaking to the first question: No. Keep in mind that manager Rocco Baldelli and his staff thought highly enough of Luis Arraez’s bat last season that they entrusted the rookie to learn to play outfield on the fly in order to keep him in the lineup. If Arraez is anywhere close to replicating his performance from last season, he should be entrenched at second base. He did have a markedly worse OPS against lefties (.696) than righties (.887), but his on-base percentage was elite in both cases, and his Minor League performance would suggest that gap should close as he continues to acclimate to the Majors.

• Detroit’s Matt Manning should throw around 150 innings in 2020 while Casey Mize will throw less because of his 2019 injuries.

Manning has proven to be durable on his way up the developmental ladder the last couple of years, including 24 starts last year at Double-A Erie. He topped 100 pitches in a game only once, but he had six outings with 95-plus, and he had four seven-inning starts. He progressed from 117 2/3 innings in 2018 to 133 2/3 innings last year, so it’s reasonable to expect him to get at least 150 innings this season between Triple-A Toledo and, hopefully, Detroit.

Mize will be an interesting situation, not just because he was shut down in mid-August last year but because it wasn’t his first bout of struggles down the stretch in a season. He essentially alternated good outings with subpar ones after coming back from the injured list in July, and he ended up with fewer innings for the season (109 1/3) than he had his final year at Auburn (114 2/3). The Tigers will want to figure this out, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they’re careful with him early on to see if it helps him for the stretch run — whether he’s in Toledo or Detroit by then.

And both should be promoted around the All-Star game.

Manning and Mize looming as potential midseason call-ups.

• This news item may just have been me not paying attention last season, but Josh Rojas is an option to play second base for the Diamondbacks.

[Daulton] Varsho, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the club’s No. 5 prospect, played a little bit of center field during the Double-A playoffs last season and the D-backs liked what they saw of him out there. The plan right now, though, is for him to focus his efforts behind the plate. It’s possible that he could once again see some time in the outfield or possibly second base, but I don’t think you’ll see him at second base in the big leagues this year. I still think it’s possible the D-backs could acquire a second baseman before Opening Day, but if not you’re looking at Eduardo Escobar, Josh Rojas, Ildemaro Vargas, Andy Young and Pat Valaika as players who could see time there.

Alex’s crush doesn’t seem to have an Opening Day job but just about any injury makes him a starter.

• Jorge Bonifacio could end up in Detroit’s outfield mix.

Bonifacio, a right-handed hitter, will be competing with Victor Reyes, Travis Demeritte, Derek Hill and Troy Stokes Jr., for the right-field spot. There is a chance, too, that Bonifacio could end up in left field, splitting time with left-handed hitting Christin Stewart.

• Jaylin Davis is likely to start in the Giants outfield.

Well, Yaz will probably be in center. Other than that …

I know the Giants are still working on some things and they’re cautiously optimistic, but short of a surprise strike for Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, they’re going young. They really go want to give one of these internal guys 300 at-bats to see what he can do. The early favorite for that role seems to be Jaylin Davis.

• Byron Buxton is still not 100% and may not be by the time Spring Training starts.

Buxton’s nevertheless a valuable member of the reigning AL Central champions’ roster, though, and after undergoing left shoulder surgery last September, he’s recovering well, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune reports.

The 26-year-old Buxton received medical clearance this week to swing a bat again and could be ready to face live pitching by the time the Twins’ full-squad workouts begin Feb. 17.

 

While some “Beat Your Favorite Author” leagues will be starting soon, feel free to go to the NFBC and sign up for their Draft or Online Championships. Also, for those with deeper pocketbooks, the NFBC Main Events are quickly filling up.