| 3:00 |
: Hi everyone.
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| 3:01 |
: Assuming Carlos Rodon and Michael Fulmer are both healthy, which of the two would you prefer? Thanks!
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| 3:01 |
: Simply, I think the Sox will Win more games.
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| 3:01 |
: Do you think Josh James wins the 5th spot in the Astros rotation still? Does the shorter season make you like him any more (or less)?
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| 3:02 |
: I’m not sure how to approach him without the schedule.
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| 3:02 |
: Teams could need 6 starters.
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I’ve been sitting on a ton of possibly useful information since Spring Training was cut short. I was just going to sort through it once MLB tries to start up but it was becoming too much. I’m going to purge all the information in two to three articles and try to write Mining the News on a regular basis.
• Jon Daniels says the Rangers are “idling”.
Daniels said the Rangers want their pitchers “idling their engines.” That means not shutting it down completely, but also not going at full intensity without knowing when they will be called back to work.
“Until the league tells us otherwise, we are going to try and keep guys in some sort of state of readiness,” Daniels said. “That’s going to vary with each guy based on what they can do safely. We don’t want anybody to do anything that will jeopardize their health or the public’s health.”
A couple of weeks back, Mike asked for possible topic ideas. Today, I’m going to go through some topics that can be quickly answered or why they may be too massive to take on. Some reasonable questions were asked that deserve their own article so don’t fret if it wasn’t answered. Also, let me know which of these topics can be expanded and how?
Rock Lobster: Which stats are the most volatile week to week in h2h leagues? I assume something like Ws fluctuates more from week to week than SBs, but by how much? Could knowing this information lead to any insights regarding roster construction in h2h leagues? Or is it just noise?
This is a huge undertaking. Tanner Bell compiled weekly stats for a few studies in our book, and those took months. It’s something that could be done again but what are the standard points systems used? Just the standards at ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS? Any others? It’s doable but once jumping in, I think it’ll be a one-time study so everything desired needs to be in place before it begins.
I’ve spent the last few articles releasing new projections. Today is no different and piggybacks off Monday’s article on single-season based pitcher projections or the GM’s. Today, it’s the hitters’ turn.
While the inspiration for these projections started with Giolito, I found I wanted the same dataset available for hitters. I took the players’ 2019 stats and regressed them to the league’s average rates and added in an aging factor. Finally, I prorated everyone to 600 PA.
Read the rest of this entry »
| 3:00 |
: It’s time to get started. |
| 3:00 |
: Hello |
| 3:00 |
: Hi |
| 3:00 |
: In dynasty leagues, how does Severino’s recent injury woes (shoulder and TJ) impact your long term outlook on him? |
| 3:02 |
: I just assume any more that starters will miss some time with TJS. It’s why I prefer to focus on hitters long term and piece together staffs each year. |
| 3:03 |
: With Severino (and Thor), I just don’t trust either NY medical staff to get them right |
While I had little luck finding the next Lucas Giolito, he still intrigued me. He was possibly the worst major league starter in 2018 (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 173 IP). Last season, he remade himself by throwing harder (avg FBv from 92.4 mph to 94.3 mph), throwing more strikes (4.7 BB/9 to 2.90 BB/9), and reworking his pitch mix (dropped the sinker and curve).
The problem is that standard projection systems still incorporate the previous three or more results which hurt his projection. Our auction calculator (Steamer) ranks him as the 45th pitcher while he’s going as the 14th pitcher in the NFBC. Fantasy owners knew to reset his projection but to what? I decided to create a projection system called the GM (Giolito – Marte) based only on the previous season results. Nothing more.
Read the rest of this entry »
With the season delayed, I’ve had time to dive into some shelved projects including creating some unique projections. Today, I’m going to introduce my StatCast hitter projections.
I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:
“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very acurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.
…
Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “
The last of the Finding Giolito series comes to pause. I couldn’t find any footage on Logan Webb and the Manaea video was crap. That said, the Garrett Richards looked great.
Garrett Richards (Padres, RHP)
Games
Notes
| 3:00 |
: What’s your thought on fringey SVs guys in the new normal? Lugo, D. castillo, etc. Closer to SVs bc chaos or farther from SVs bc teams will trust their guys?
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| 3:01 |
: The trade deadline might also be in play. Maybe some teams may trade for a reliever immediately.
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| 3:01 |
: Also, if 7-8 games a week, the backups with get more chances.
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| 3:02 |
: If the season starts, it’ll be a fun variable.
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| 3:02 |
: What Baseball article have you enjoyed the most over the past month not by a fangraphs writer
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| 3:03 |
: I like the series Eno Sarris did on the bad players who destroyed a single team.
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