Jeff Zimmerman Fantasy Baseball Chat

3:01
Snuds: How would you attack starting pitching in a redraft AL only roto league for the short 2020 season?    Starters always go quickly

3:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Go with the high IP/S guys to get Wins and/or QS.

3:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Greinke would be a good target.

3:02
Chris: In a points league who do you like best and how would you rank Dahl, Willy Calhoun or Upton?

3:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Calhoun, Upton, Dahl

3:03
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not a fan of Dahl because he unstartable on the road and against lefties.

3:03
Chris: Are you in on Mathew Boyd, Zac Gallen or Tanaka this year?

3:05
Jeff Zimmerman: I find myself liking Gallen and Boyd at their prices. Both have a path to improving. I’m just not a Tanaka fan. He’s unstartable in too many games (at home and tough opponents)

3:05
Aceman: H2H Points,Would you move Maeda for Brian Anderson? I’m loaded with arms

3:06
Jeff Zimmerman: I guess, but I’d hold for now.

3:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Your loaded team could get decimated with injuries during the second ramp up.

3:08
Guest: Thoughts on Tyler Rodgers – best  xwoba  and subpar strikeout. A unicorn or something to believe?

3:08
Jeff Zimmerman: I love a 82 mph fastball

3:09
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s  a fine bullpen arm but it’ll be interesting to see if the Giants trust him with closing

3:09
Chris: Who are your favorite last few round sleepers in a points league?

3:10
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m trying to grab Matt Carpenter late. I’ll know right away if he still stinks, but could be a top-50 player.

3:10
Jeff Zimmerman: Staying with the Cards, I’ve also been gambling on Kim

3:11
Ryan: With a shortened season, do the value of relievers go down considerably given their wide range of outcomes or do the “dependable relievers”(an oxymoron) see their value rise?

3:11
Jeff Zimmerman: I think good relievers, no matter the role, will be highly prized.

3:12
Jeff Zimmerman: They grab some Saves, help ratios, and take the place of a SP disaster-in-waiting.

3:12
Chris: Am I crazy to think willy adames is going to be good this year?

3:14
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a nice late sleeper who made some nice improvements as the 2019 season went on. I’d be all in if it wasn’t for Wander Franco in the minors.

3:14
John: In a nl only  10 team 6×6 (obp) is Mauricio dubon  someone to buy into?

3:15
Jeff Zimmerman: I have been. His playing time situation will improve with the DH and if he plays 80% or more of the games, I could see him steal the equivalent of 20-30 steals.

3:15
You Never Give Me Yasmani: Do you see any fantasy growth for a player like Matt Chapman or is he what he is?

3:16
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s maxed out. Now, if he changed teams, his production could jump considerably.

3:16
Chris: Is Andujar going to play enough to be a sneaky DH option in a points league? Also any favorite NL DHs you expect to get eligibility quick?

3:18
Jeff Zimmerman: With likely the whole team back (e.g. Hicks, Stanton, Judge), I don’t think he’ll get 5% of the DH at-bats. His best best is at 1B if Voit struggles.

3:18
Maris: Straight points league. I have both K. Marte and C Biggio at a one buck salary. Biggio on new contract; Marte needs to be signed up now. Marte can play OF for 2020. How far would you sign Marte? one-two-three years. How sure is Biggio at 2B for future. Thanks Jeff.  

3:19
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d max Marte out. I find it’s better to dump a bad deal then miss out on several seasons of production.

3:20
Jeff Zimmerman: As for Biggio, I think he’s fine. The AVG is a drag and I’m not confident it will improve.

3:20
Quincy: Is it time to give up the ghost on kbryan Hayes and Jonathan India?

3:21
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not the best for prospects, but owned Hayes in a keeper league. I’m just not sure he’ll hit enough to be fantasy viable.

3:22
Reuben: How has your evaluation of risk evolved over time? What is your balance between quantifying it and trusting your gut?

3:25
Jeff Zimmerman: It depends on the definition of risk. For some, it’s variation and others downside. As for downside, I’ve come to compromise with hitters using a projected PA value that helps weight projections. For pitcher downside, I try my hardest to stay away from anyone with recent elbow or should injuries in the first 12 or so rounds.

3:25
Ralphie: If there’s a dh in the nl would you be fading hitters with the increased supply?

3:26
Jeff Zimmerman: No … not yet. I do want to see who projections/playing time changes and see who moves up and who moves down.

3:26
Kevin: How would an 78-82 game season impact strategy around FAAB in your opinion? Should people be more aggressive on available players since there’s less time to make impactful moves?

3:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Definitely aggressive, but save back some money for each week since they’re effectively twice as valuable. Teams may not have the chance to pull away in the short season and category push in the last week could be huge.

3:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Tanner Bell and I won won of the Memorial Day leagues and didn’t have the lead until the 3rd to last and last day as we rostered all the 2-start pitchers in the last week and jump 6 spots in strikeouts

3:29
Joe: But, for real, why are baseball owners the worst?

3:30
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s bad …

3:30
Guest: How much regresion to the mean are you expecting from Danny Santana? What kind of full season numbers are you shooting for?

3:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he could be fine in a whole season but the Rangers have a few too many bats and if Santana starts out slow, he could be on the bench. If he plays the whole season, he could put of the equivalent of 20/20

3:32
Quadrangular: Who do you like and dislike for power and volume in an OBP league: Braun, Yandy, Avisail, Carpenter, and Peralta

3:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Dislike Diaz … then Braun. None of these guys give me a warm fuzzy

3:33
Quadrangular: Trying to not be insensitive to issues that are much larger than baseball, but it’s safe to say that Mancini will not play in 2020, yes?

3:33
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s done

3:33
Bob: More homers this season – joc, Cron, Smoak?

3:34
Jeff Zimmerman: I like Joc with the DH option … and then Smoak. No NL DH, I’m with Cron

3:34
Guest: Do you think games wil be played at less than 100% due to a lack of getting back into baseball shape as well as no energy dervied by the lack of fans?

3:35
Jeff Zimmerman: I think players want to play and they’ll go all out. I think this early increased effort might lead to injuries.

3:36
Jeff Zimmerman: If someone needs fans to play hard, they’ve probably not made it to the bigs.

3:36
E: Seeing some stuff on the Twitterverse that Dansby Swanson is the better value than Bo Bichette at their current ADPs (46 vs 252). What says you?

3:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I can get behind that take. Unless it’s a first round SS or one with dual qualification, I’m trying to roster one until after round 10. There are so many good late options.

3:37
Bob: Who are some favorite late round OF targets of yours – around the adp 250 range?

3:38
Jeff Zimmerman: It really depends on my team’s needs, power or speed. Outfield is the only position where teams have the option of speed or power, so I hold off on roster any until then

3:38
KJ: In a keep forever league, I need SP. Is Eddie Rosario too much to give up for Dustin May?  Categories are R, HR, RBI, Ave, Ks, SB…wins, saves, era, whip and Ks.

3:39
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d keep Rosario

3:39
Aceman: Thanks for earlier reply on Maeda,I assume you  think there will be a lot of pitcher injuries, do u think it’s more starters or bullpen and do suspect same with batters

3:40
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’ll be starters and who knows who will be the ones hurt. In an AL league one year, I had 8 SP on my bench and DL who were all top-100 starters in mixed leagues. Weird shit can happen.

3:40
Dan: Alex wood, j gray, or g canning? QS league. Thanks!

3:40
Jeff Zimmerman: Wood ……Gray ……Canning

3:40
Ed: Should we expect a smaller % of QS this season?

3:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Oh hell yea with only a planned 2 week Spring Training. The season might be a third over until pitchers are at their normal IP/S

3:42
Trent Hauser: Kyle Schwarber or Willy Calhoun?

3:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Schwarber and it’s not close. With the DH, I’d not be surprised if he was a top-20 hitter.

3:42
Trent Hauser: Ian Happ: breakout candidate?

3:43
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe … he’s making more contact be still has a ways to go.

3:43
Quadrangular: Alec Bohm hype is starting to get loud, perhaps in light of the DH extending to all teams. Are you interested for 2020? What’s the ceiling like?

3:44
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m interested and think Schwaber is great comp.

3:44
Jeet: Hi Jeff – I’m trying to decide on my fifth keeper and looking for help!  SGP likes Villar, and Z-scores likes Eloy Jimenez.  I’m leaning towards Jimenez mostly for future value, but in a shortened season any little edge in a category can help.  For context it’s a roto league with OPS, triples, and total bases.  Other keepers are JRam, Albies, K. Marte, and Springer.  Thanks!

3:44
Jeff Zimmerman: You’re right to keep Eloy for his age.

3:45
LK: Would you consider having any shares of a(n allegedly) healthy Yoenis Cespedes as the Mets full time DH?

3:45
Jeff Zimmerman: I keep wanting to grab him as my last pick but people kept jumping me. He’s worth a shot that late.

3:46
Nathan: If indeed there is an 82 game season, that means the regular season will likely be either 13 or 14 weeks if teams play 6 games a week on average.  So in H2H leagues, assuming there are 3 weeks of fantasy playoffs, it leaves only 11 weekly matchups at most.  Teams will only square off once. How do you suggest leagues with 12 or more teams handle which teams do not face each other, if they have the ability to set the schedule?

3:47
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m sure double match ups are allowed by most where teams face two teams each weak. It’s the best option I can think of.

3:47
Dave: Jeff, just dropping in to say hello from North Topeka. Can’t stay for the chat, but wanted to tell you I enjoy your articles.  Keep up the good work and take care!

3:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Stay warm

3:48
AKA22: Alex Wood, Jordan Montgomery, Nate Eovaldi – any/all worth a late round pick in a 12 team league? Who do you like best?

3:49
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d make sure to add Wood and Monty. When healthy, Wood is good. Monty’s velo was up a ton in ST, so yes with him. I’ll happily pass on Eovaldi.

3:49
Eric: If we do have half a season, how do you think this impacts leagues like ottoneu?  Is it worth making a big push for a win when there will be so much more variance involved?  Especially given the risk that the season has to get shut down

3:50
Jeff Zimmerman: One thing, know the shutdown rules before going all in. I’m wondering if other owners will be going all in itching to get going.

3:50
John: With no minor leagues this year and little clarity on how/where the non-active available players will train and stay sharp, do you think there’s any chance top prospects who haven’t yet played above AA (i.e. – Mize/Manning) get the call this year?

3:52
Jeff Zimmerman: From what I gather each team will have a ~50 man taxi squad, so owners will know which prospects could get the call. Owners should be making their choices from this candidates.

3:52
Bill: Are there any minor league/college parks you would like to see host an MLB game?

3:53
Jeff Zimmerman: Not really …

3:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Now, I’d love to see a game at neutral site with passionate fans on both sides. I love the 50-50 games.

3:54
Quadrangular: Thanks for the chat, Jeff!

3:54
Jeff Zimmerman: No problem

3:55
Salty: Jeff – with NL DH potentially opening up more PT, how would you rank the following for overall production (no specific category needed):  Eric Thames, Dom Smith, Teoscar Hernandez and Domingo Santana

3:55
Jeff Zimmerman: Santana, Hernandez, Thames, Smith

3:55
Cubbies: Care to speculate how teams or MLB will handle if a player(s) becomes infected with COVID-19? Entire team is quarantined for 2 weeks, the opposing team also quarantined? If tests don’t come back quickly does the next team get quarantined? I can see this train being derailed before it gets past the first mile marker.

3:56
Jeff Zimmerman: This needs to be addressed first. Doolittle had a great thread on it.

3:56
Jeff Zimmerman: This has be decided before moving on.

3:56
Guest: Any prospects not thought of as imminent call ups that you’re stashing in redraft leagues thinking the crazy season will give them a chance?

3:57
Jeff Zimmerman: No … rookies are on the back burner for me. I want to see the rules and focus on regulars changing value before I deal with rookies.

3:58
Edwin: Can Maxx Kepler escape the ‘BABIP trap'(2 consecutive <.250 BABIP) in this year?. I can’t understand >90% Contact, >80% contact player’s such a low BA

3:58
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s so flyball phone that it’s either an out or HR.

3:58
Jim: Is this the year Mazara explodes?

4:00
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so … I’ll bet on his disappointing past continuing.

4:00
MJ: ’30-20′ palyer(ex, F Lindor) is 1st Round. ’20-20′ player(ex Mercado) is around 100 ranks. Is it possible for Kyle Tucker(AAA, 30-30) to rank in 1st-2nd round in next year?

4:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Sure but he needs to start performing when give a MLB opportunity.

4:01
Jeff: Kris Bryant’s chances of going .300/.400/.600 in a shortened season? Full season?

4:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Higher in a short season but so are the chances of him hitting .200/.275/.350.

4:02
Jeff Zimmerman: That’s it for today. I’ll talk to everyone next week.

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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