Author Archive: Paul Sporer

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I wonder how many teams that drafted Ian Seymour are still benefitting from the fruits of his summer labor. A popular late round breakout pick after 57 solid innings to close out last year, Seymour didn’t make the rotation out of camp and promptly allowed 5 ER without getting an out in his season debut. If that didn’t lead to a rash of cuts, his residence in the bullpen for the first 2+ months almost certainly did in most leagues. In mid-June they started mixing him in for starts and extended follows (4, 5 IP in 2 starts; 3.3, 6.7 IP in 2 follows) and since July, he’s had a traditional starter’s workload with 7 starts and 2 long follows. In that stretch, he’s put up a 3.59 ERA/1.03 WHIP/25% K-BB, leading to 6 Ws in 13 appearances.

While I thought he had the workload established to avoid needing the ramp up management (143 in 2025; 145 in 2024), I did still think that Tampa Bay would take that approach. From my March SP rankings:

I’m a big Ian Seymour fan for 2026, just not necessarily 2026 drafts as he’s very likely to be an in-season reinforcement for the Rays so unless your league is setup to favor holding a guy for 4-6 weeks (Draft Champs, deep reserve AL-only or giant mixed lg), just keep tabs on him for a the call-up and be ready to pounce. He’s got an excellent changeup as his A-pitch and then four supporting pitches to craft the rest of his arsenal from, which makes sense when you throw 92 mph (multiple options instead of raw fastball dominance). After some early struggles as a pro (11%), his control took a leap in 2024 and has now sat around 7% for 288 IP, and he’s never had issues missing bats despite the lack of velocity (double-digit SwStr rates at every stop but one as a pro and that one sub-10% was for 4 IP). Seymour is likely their 4th best SP right now behind Ras, Pep, and Shane Mc, but in typical Rays fashion, they will likely try to get some innings out of Steven Matz and Nick Martinez at the frontend of the season before turning to the young lefty. They shouldn’t because after 143 IP last year, he can go a full season, but they almost certainlyyyyy will so plan accordingly.

Seymour’s excellent changeup helps him profile as the rare lefty who decimates righties (204-point reverse platoon OPS split: .622 vR, .826 vL) and the opposition almost protects him from his weakness, too, by stacking righties against him in hopes of getting a platoon edge that never seems to come their way. The lefty struggles are heavily tied to his 8 HRs allowed in 145 PA, compared to 7 vR in 254 PA. I still see a 25% K-BB (42 Ks, 6 BB) against lefties as a major reason to believe he will get better against them even if he regresses some against righties (a still-healthy 19% K-BB, but a .252 BABIP that won’t necessarily hold firm). If he continues to excel down the stretch, his draft price will skyrocket and he should be positioned to be a full-time starter out of camp for Tampa Bay in 2027. Does the original Seymour drafter still have him in your league?

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I haven’t fallen asleep before posting in a while, but I crashed after the Tigers game. I’m adding comments right now (as this goes up at 8 AM CT), but wanted to get the base post up right away since I’m late.

Pfaadt has returned to the majors with a vengeance and some of the best success of his career. A rough start in the rotation led to a role change but the bullpen didn’t go any better and eventually saw him demoted to a Triple-A in early-June. After three “opens” (they were starts, but all under 4 IP), he returned with 5.3 strong IP v. SFG, netting his first W of the year followed by an even sharper 5 IP outing at SDP that included 6 Ks/0 BB. Given the offenses in question, I remained skeptical. A solid start at LAD (5.3 IP/2 ER, but just 2 Ks) resulted in a 3rd straight W and he’d eventually run the streak up to 5 straight Ws. I still wasn’t sold that it was a transformation, citing his 200-pt. platoon split in the August 3rd SP Chart.

Now nine starts into his return, Pfaadt has certainly shown it’s more than a hot run. He’s even made it into the 7th inning in each of his last four, completing it three times, running his record up to 7-0 in the process. There’s at least a souvenir cup-sized of cold water to throw on this with a meager 14% K rate that gives him an out of place 11% K-BB to go with the incredible 1.16 ERA/0.89 WHIP. Premium control (3% BB), a .237 BABIP, and just 1 HR allowed (0.2 HR9) have overrun the need for strikeouts, at least for now. Let’s be honest, only the walk rate is truly skill-based, meaning the other two are ripe for regression. More 4-seamers (+10 pts to 30% usage compared to pre-demotion) are leading his 3-headed fastball approach (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) along with a huge surge in changeup usage (+13 pts to 22%) making him formidable against lefties for the first time… ever? Southpaws have just a .218 wOBA against Pfaadt since returning, down from .405, while he’s also gotten better versus righties, dropping from .284 to .227 wOBA.

Pitchers can succeed for long periods without a ton of strikeouts. It’s not the best day to cite him after a 6 ER Dud last night, but Nick Martinez has a 3.05 ERA/1.14 WHIP this year despite just an 11% K-BB in 142 IP. He’s one of nine guys with a sub-3.50 ERA and K-BB no higher than 12% in at least 100 IP. Only three of them have a 20% or better K rate, none eclipsing the 22% league average (Walbert Ureña 22%, Michael King 21%, and Robbie Ray 20%). They all have a SIERA in the mid-4.00s, ranging from 4.33 to 4.90 and it’s hard not to think there are some Duds in the offing for Pfaadt if the skills remain down here. He’s doing positive things that are driving enough bankable success to get him into rotations in any league size, but he still isn’t close to a set it and forget it type and won’t be able to achieve that level without cultivating a swing-and-miss pitch he can believe in start-to-start.

• Cavalli hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 12 starts, netting a 2.82 ERA/1.04 WHIP with a sharp 22% K-BB, fueled by a pair of double-digit strikeout games and four more with at least 7 Ks. He was lifted before a total implosion in the worst two of these 12 starts with early walks (5 BB in the 5 IP of these two outings) perhaps being a key indicator that it’s not his day. Unsurprisingly, he has 3+ BB in 5 of his 8 worst starts by Game Score (far from a perfect measure of a game, but a useful starting point in bucketing good/bat outings) this year. TEX is bottom 10 in BB% vR on the year and 27th in the L30 days (7%) along with the 3rd highest K% (26%) in that same time.
• Offff course May has two gems since joining MIL! He closed his STL tenure with a pair as well, so it’s been four straight good ones since his last Dud, posting a 1.50 ERA/0.96 WHIP/15% K-BB in 24 IP. I was definitely carrying some residual sourness from buying in after his 17 scoreless IP in mid-June only to see him allow 11 ER in 2.7 IP over his next two starts at KCR and at ATL. He’s earned enough trust that his next Dud won’t instantly have me running for the hills.
• Holmes was sharp in his 2nd start off the IL with 6.7 IP of 1-hit shutout ball. Only 3 Ks, but that’s never been the focus of his game with an elite groundball rate that should play very nicely with this defense behind him. Now they did lose Dansby Swanson which moves Nico Hoerner over to SS and Pedro Ramírez into the everyday 2B role which no doubt weakens the overall unit, but not enough to become a liability for Holmes.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• Harrison got trounced at SDP, including a Luis Rengifo grand slam, but just 3 of the 8 runs were earned. Unfortunately, there were no “unearned baserunners” so the 10 H and 3 BB resulted in a disgusting 2.77 WHIP. The fastball velo was down to 93.2, compared to a season mark of 94.9 and 94.6 in his first start off the IL which does give some pause that this is more than just regular ol’ bad start (hat tip to trashpanda in the comments for posting the velo info right as I was about to go search it up and saved me the trouble!), but I’m still riding with him today and this will be a pivotal start in determining there’s more to worry about. If it was a really tough matchup, I might suggest more caution in shallower leagues, but catching the lowly M’s gives him a great chance to get right and shake this one. Regardless of the results, keep an eye on the velo. Sub-94 mph again and we start to get some real concerns.
• Ray has 8 BB in 2 starts w/SDP after just 5 in his final 3 w/SFG which is just the standard inconsistency that comes with his game. NYM is surging of late vL (8th in L30 days) but it’s not enough to take me off this start. Ray is someone you generally just set and forget outside of injury. When he’s on, no one can touch him.
• Maybe Martinez should be above the trio of lefties with how electric his season has been for Tampa Bay. His already modest K% is even lower this year at just 14% and yet he’s got some of the best ratios going at 2.74 ERA/1.09 WHIP. MLB-bests of 4% BB and 85% LOB are working in concert to keep his WHIP tiny and make sure that his 1.0 HR9 stings a lot less than normal. There’s still some real “run-hot” to the season, but dammit, the Rays did it again!!
• Y’all already know I’m terrified about Baz being this high, but he’s earned it and of course, NYY is ripe for the picking right now (here comes 6 ER now that I said that, of course). Even with a Dud last time out, Baz has a solid 3.39 ERA/1.33 WHIP/15% K-BB in his L8. There’s still plenty of risk here even with the hapless Yankees.
• SDP’s offensive surge has come more vR than vL, but they are up to 11th in wOBA over the last month against southpaws so don’t take that 26th season rank totally to heart. I mentioned this briefly yesterday that we’ll need to be careful starting any ol’ pitcher against SDP as we were throughout most of the summer, but Thornton still clears the bar to get a full reco from me. He is susceptible here if the Ks remain light, though. He has just 7 total in his L3 starts for a mere 10% K%.
• Ashcraft battled through a brutal July, posting a 7.78 ERA in four starts, but he’s hit the road in August to get right. In three straight roadies, he’s allowed just 5 ER in 19 IP (2.37 ERA) and had his best start of the year last time out, allowing just a solo shot in a complete game at MIA with 10 Ks.
• Well, we mega-whiffed on Mahle! Justin, Jason and I thought his move from SFG to ATL would be a total bust given how much of a stark home/road split he had with the Giants. Instead, he’s had two of his best starts of the year, one at NYY and the other hosting NYM. Sure, neither of those offenses are anywhere close to scary, but I was concerned that Mahle would actively hurt fantasy teams regardless of who he was facing. This is a nice challenge for Mahle as MIN can hit it outta the park and they’ve been 11th in runs against righties.
• After an unstoppable 7-start run to open the year, Soriano labored through May and June, posting a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, boosting his ERA from 0.84 to 3.42 in the process. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts since then, but it’s worth noting that the 2.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP combo since then comes with just an 8% K-BB (he was at 20% during his opening 7-start surge). With that in mind, he’s not a must-start in the shallowest of formats, especially against a tough TBR team.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• This doesn’t really apply to McLean today as he’s an auto start everywhere, but it’s worth noting that SDP is on fire of late, sitting 1st in wOBA vR over the L30 days. They’re also up to 10th vL after spending the vast majority of the year in the bottom 5 both ways. This will definitely be a bigger deal for their MIN series later in the week and might cost Zac Thornton an “x” for Tuesday’s board.
• Wacha gets a remarkably hobbled ATH team with Tyler Soderstrom joining the rest of their best players on the IL. They’re on the road all week so it’s easy to play against them in that situation even without all the injuries, but now we might start considering more arms against them at home next week and beyond.
• I really don’t mind running Snell in any format, even in Coors. I gave him the extra “x” this morning after just 2-x on the initial board. Yes, Coors can clip anyone at any time, but we’re talking probabilities and it’s hard for me to drum up any major concern about the Rockies, even at home. The strength of their lineup comes from the left side, too, which obviously plays into Snell even more.
• McClanahan comes off the IL for a bizarre 2-step where he’s facing BAL both times thanks to a wraparound series that has him finishing the weekend set today and then getting ’em again this weekend at BAL.
• Board might feel a bit thin when Perez, Pallante, and Bello (who isn’t even traditionally starting) hit the Top 10, but they’re all deserving. Perez has been flat out amazing all year with a 2.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP in 106.3 IP and is currently in the midst of an 18-IP scoreless streak. Even with a pair of Duds (5+ ER outing) mixed in, Pallante has a sparkling 2.88 ERA over his L12 starts, totaling 72 IP. He’s still skills-light with just a 9% K-BB but a groundball stud with a great defense behind him can outrun modest strikeout numbers more easily. There’s still high risk with any given start, but hard to get him outta the rotation these days. And Bello has been dialed in since going to an extended RP role, posting an 0.81 ERA and WHIP across 6 appearances (22.7 IP) with a 20% K-BB. He hasn’t been a traditional Follower in each, notching a 3-IP SV in one of them, but he is lined up to follow today.
• Castillo is coming off a beautiful outing v. CIN last time out (7 IP of 1-hit ball w/10 Ks), but let’s keep things in perspective and not immediately throw him back into every lineup. The two starts before this were both Duds and the recently outing only just got him back below 5.00 ERA for the year (4.96).
• I took Mlodzinski’s “x” from the initial post upon further review. He has a pair of bad 3 IP outings since returning to the rotation and it’s not like the DET offense is a rollover. I’d probably start Bratt over him (not that I’m interested in either).

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8/14/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK22 (Aug 17th)

• AUTO-START: Cristopher Sánchez, Drew Rasmussen, Nolan McLean, Bryce Miller, Ranger Suarez
• Foster Griffin CLE – vs SF (28), @ COL (16) 4:50
• Framber Valdez DET – @ PIT (24), @ KC (21) 7:39
• José Soriano TOR – @ TB (3), @ NYY (16) 11:52
• Will Warren NYY – @ BAL (15), vs TOR (25) 16:50
• Michael Wacha KC – vs ATH (17), vs DET (12) 20:14
• Shane Baz BAL – vs NYY (16), vs TB (3) 23:00
• Nick Martinez TB – vs BAL (15), @ BAL (15) 26:00
• Andrew Abbott CIN – vs STL (22), @ ARI (3) 31:00
• Luis Castillo CWS – @ CHC (7), vs NYM (28) 32:55

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’m dealing with a nasty neck strain the last couple days so I’m heading to bed early and will get some comments going in the morning (might be late-AM if I can’t get ’em done before Justin and I record the podcast).

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• It’s always scary to take an SP in Sacramento, but Rasmussen is amazing plus the A’s have been melting as the season wears on with their three best players (Kurtz, Shea, and Rooker — if you want to say Soderstrom is over Rooker, sure, but it’s splitting hairs and there’s no disputing Kurtz/Shea as 1/2) on the IL and Gelof just returned two days ago. The result of these injuries has been a precipitous drop in home wOBA vR from 5th through July 25th – first game without Langeliers – to just 24th since then.
• This is why I stay living in the gamelogs: Framber’s L30 is a 4.58 ERA/1.63 WHIP but if you lop off the meltdown at CHC (6 ER, 7 baserunners in 2 outs of work), he’s at 1.89/1.32 including a great outing against the aforementioned hobbled A’s (7 IP/2 ER). And yeah, 1.32 WHIP is still bad but it’s a reminder how much a bad start can spoil a sample. Over these last 4, it’s 2 gems, a decent one (5 IP/2 ER), and the Cubs Dud. Plus, he gets a CLE team that has struggled with lefties all year.
• Miller doesn’t quite have the crazy home/road splits of teammate Bryan Woo, but it’s still nearly 2 runs of ERA (2.09 home/4.02 road) and nearly 40 pts of WHIP (.75/1.14). And yet, he’s a full reco for the same reason Woo was yesterday – the Yankees offense is rouuuugh right now. Only Miller’s own M’s are worse in wOBA than NYY since Judge’s departure on June 1st. They’re only marginally better when looking at their work vR at home in that timeframe (up to a whopping 27th!).
• C’mon, don’t burn me, Baz! If you read me consistently, y’all know I’ve been skeptical on him for a minute but he’s shaved his ERA down to 3.76 on the year so if you can afford some WHIP risk (1.32), I’m good running him anywhere today. He’s coming off his best start of the year (8 IP/2 ER/9 Ks at TEX) and has been dialed in over his L7 in all: 2.55 ERA/1.19 WHIP/16% K-BB. MIN can certainly pop off as evidenced by their 8th ranked offense vR for the year, but they are floundering down at 25th over the last month.
• Like I said, SEA’s offense is similarly awful lately, hence a full reco on Warren despite his inconsistency since June 1st (not related to Judge, just happens to be when he dropped off after a nice April-May: 3.23 ERA/1.20 WHIP/19% K-BB thru May | 5.49/1.61/12% since then.
• Once we get out of the 3-x realm, things gets dodgy immediately. Can Soriano keep BOS cold after their blazing hot run? They have just 10 R in their last 4 games combined after averaging 10 the 5 before that and of course the 15-game W streak not being that far in the rear view.
• Was the Mahle trade a sneaky gem for ATL? Not just saying that because he debuted with 6 scoreless and 9 Ks at the sputtering Yankees, but because he’d stabilized a bit in his last 7 starts with SFG (3.79 ERA/1.18 WHIP/12% K-BB). Even his Dud at SDP in his last start as a Giant still had 9 Ks! I only gave 2-x, but he could be started in a 10’er against NYM.
• I was too aggressive with Junk’s original rank so I dropped him to 1-x. I’ve been aggressively running away from PIT vR for most of the year and I am open to taking a shot on him at home with PIT sitting 18th in wOBA over the last month but only in 15s as more of a Hail Mary. He has such a stark righty-lefty split (.860 OPS vL, +256 pts his vR mark) that he might be the perfect Rx to get them out of their funk.

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