Author Archive

Starting Pitcher Chart – April 2nd, 2025

by
April 1, 2025
Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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It’s a very straightforward Wednesday with 6 of my Top 10 and 20 of the 30 landing in my Top 60 pitchers. Let me know if you have any questions or comments below! I stay on top of the comments so in a case like Monday where Thomas Harrington was called up, I’ll definitely get in there and give my thoughts if someone asks about them.

Starter Notes April 2, 2025
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB 2024 wOBA RK
1 Tarik Skubal DET at SEA x x x 192 2.39 0.92 26% 24th
2 Paul Skenes PIT at TBR x x x 133 1.96 0.95 27% 29th
3 Zack Wheeler PHI v COL x x x 200 2.57 0.96 22% 16th
4 Garrett Crochet BOS at BAL x x x 146 3.58 1.07 30% 7th
5 Cole Ragans KCR at MIL x x x 186 3.14 1.14 20% 13th
6 Blake Snell LAD v ATL x x x 104 3.12 1.05 24% 4th
7 Framber Valdez HOU v SFG x x x 176 2.91 1.11 16% 9th
8 Dylan Cease SDP v CLE x x x 189 3.47 1.07 21% 26th
9 Pablo López MIN at CHW x x x 185 4.08 1.19 20% 30th
10 Luis Castillo SEA v DET x x x 175 3.64 1.17 18% 22nd
11 Zac Gallen ARI at NYY x x x 148 3.65 1.26 16% 1st
12 Hunter Greene CIN v TEX x x x 150 2.75 1.02 18% 24th
13 Sonny Gray STL v LAA x x x 166 3.84 1.09 24% 27th
14 Freddy Peralta MIL v KCR x x x 173 3.68 1.21 18% 13th
15 Ryan Pepiot TBR v PIT x x x 130 3.60 1.15 17% 28th
16 MacKenzie Gore WSN at TOR x x x 166 3.90 1.42 16% 28th
17 Zach Eflin BAL v BOS x x x 165 3.59 1.15 16% 6th
18 Clay Holmes NYM at MIA x x x 63 3.14 1.30 17% 21st
19 Yusei Kikuchi LAA at STL x x x 175 4.05 1.20 22% 23rd
20 Carlos Rodón NYY v ARI x x x 175 3.96 1.22 19% 1st
21 Jeffrey Springs ATH v CHC x x 33 3.27 1.36 18% 16th
22 Jameson Taillon CHC at ATH x x 165 3.27 1.13 14% 23rd
23 Sean Burke CHW v MIN x x 19 1.42 1.00 20% 10th
24 Landen Roupp SFG at HOU x x 50 3.58 1.37 10% 8th
25 Jack Leiter TEX at CIN x 35 8.83 1.71 8% 19th
26 Ben Lively CLE at SDP 151 3.81 1.25 11% 4th
27 Easton Lucas TOR v WSN 11 10.80 2.23 2% 26th
28 Kyle Freeland COL at PHI 113 5.24 1.41 12% 3rd
29 Bryce Elder ATL at LAD 49 6.52 1.63 13% 2nd
30 Connor Gillispie MIA v NYM 8 2.25 1.13 9% 11th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Starting Pitcher Chart – April 1st, 2025

by
April 1, 2025
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – March 31st, 2025

by
March 31, 2025
Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

The 2-Start chart is a Monday feature ranking the expected 2-start pitchers. For now, the data is for 2024 until we start getting to 4-5 starts for guys. I am a bit riskier early in the season when it comes to 2-start guys. It does a bit more pressure on the ratios if you eat too many blowups, but we’ve got 6 months to work and ratios can move a lot all year long. And it’s not like I’m just frivolously starting any 2-start arm, either, just that I’ll take on some tougher starts to get the potential gem against one of the worst teams in the league.

—

Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!

 

Starter Notes March 31, 2025
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK 2024 NOTE
1 Tyler Glasnow LAD v ATL x x x 134 3.49 0.95 25% 17th
2 Cristopher Sánchez PHI v COL x x x 181 3.32 1.24 14% 21st
3 Drew Rasmussen TBR v PIT x x x 28 2.83 1.08 25% 28th
4 David Peterson NYM at MIA x x x 121 2.90 1.29 11% 29th I’ll take on a lot of tough starts to get at MIA and D Pete’s v TOR this wknd isn’t close to the riskiest
5 Jackson Jobe DET at SEA x x x 4 0.00 0.50 6% 18th Diving in headfirst with one of the best pitching prospects in baseball
6 Ronel Blanco HOU v SFG x x x 167 2.80 1.09 14% 25th
7 Kris Bubic KCR at MIL x x x 30 2.67 1.02 28% 13th I’m in on the Bubic hype train this year
8 Ben Brown CHC at ATH x x x 55 3.58 1.08 20% 23rd Him securing the rotation spot snuck up on me but I’m excited to see what he can do; easily running him here, interested in the 2-step
9 Chris Paddack MIN at CHW x x x 88 4.99 1.39 15% 30th Still allowed 2.0 HR9 in ST, but 23% K-BB and 14% SwStr, too; not a slamdunk for 2-step w/v HOU
10 Bowden Francis TOR v WSN x x 103 3.30 0.93 17% 20th Will be watching to see if he can sustain a consistently low BABIP or if he can’t, does he have the skills to survive?
11 Kumar Rocker TEX at CIN x x 11 3.86 1.54 15% 19th Not a great landing spot for his debut, but I think I take it on to get the 2-step v. TBR this wknd
12 Brady Singer CIN v TEX x x 179 3.71 1.27 15% 24th
13 Cade Povich BAL v BOS x x 79 5.20 1.43 10% 11th Strong spring earned him a spot, but the heat gets turned up immediately w/BOS & at KCR to start the season
14 Emerson Hancock SEA v DET x x 60 4.75 1.34 8% 22nd Super boring, but neither DET or at SFG completely scare me so might be worth the spin, mostly in deep lgs, though
15 Tyler Anderson LAA at STL x x 179 3.81 1.29 9% 23rd Definitely more of a deep league play but it’s not a terrible 2-step w/CLE on Sunday
16 Grant Holmes ATL at LAD x 68 3.56 1.19 20% 2nd It’s probably prudent to sit him here despite how much I love him for the year… I would start him in a weekly to get MIA this wknd
17 Michael Soroka WSN at TOR x 79 4.74 1.38 12% 12th Big start here to see where he’s at after 2 good, 2 bad starts in ST w/his last 2 being the duds; mega dud here would raise some alarm bells
18 Miles Mikolas STL v LAA x 171 5.35 1.28 13% 27th
19 Kyle Hart SDP v CLE x 0 0.00 0.00 0% 8th
20 Jordan Hicks SFG at HOU 109 4.10 1.45 10% 8th I just don’t want to deal w/the headache of Hicks as an SP
21 Sean Newcomb BOS at BAL 10 6.30 1.70 -2% 7th I gotta see something before I jump on board here
22 Luis L. Ortiz CLE at SDP 135 3.32 1.11 12% 4th Brutal spring included 15% BB and 1.5 HR9
23 Carmen Mlodzinski PIT at TBR 50 3.38 1.18 13% 29th
24 Cal Quantrill MIA v NYM 148 4.98 1.52 6% 11th
25 Martín Pérez CHW v MIN 135 4.53 1.48 10% 12th
26 Germán Márquez COL at PHI 4 6.75 2.25 -5% 9th
27 Joey Estes ATH v CHC 127 5.01 1.23 12% 14th
28 Elvin Rodriguez MIL v KCR 0 0.00 0.00 0% 13th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

2-Start Chart for the Week of Mar. 31st
RANK PITCHER TYPE MATCHUPS IP ERA WHIP K-BB Pitch+
1 Corbin Burnes 1 at NYY/at WSN 194.1 2.92 1.10 17% 106
2 Tyler Glasnow 1 ATL/at PHI 134 3.49 0.95 25% 102
3 Cristopher Sánchez 2 COL/LAD 181.2 3.32 1.24 14% 103
4 Drew Rasmussen 2 PIT/at TEX 28.2 2.83 1.08 25% 102
5 Jackson Jobe 2 at SEA/CHW 4 0.00 0.50 6% 97
6 Ronel Blanco 2 SFG/at MIN 167.1 2.80 1.09 14% 103
7 Kris Bubic 3 at MIL/BAL 30.1 2.67 1.02 28% 115
8 David Peterson 3 at MIA/TOR 121 2.90 1.29 11% 98
9 Grant Holmes 3 at LAD/MIA 68.1 3.56 1.19 20% 99
10 Brady Singer 3 TEX/at MIL 179.2 3.71 1.27 15% 99
11 Bowden Francis 4 WSN/at NYM 103.2 3.30 0.93 17% 102
12 Ben Brown 4 at ATH/SDP 55.1 3.58 1.08 20% 93
13 Kumar Rocker 4 at CIN/TBR 11.2 3.86 1.54 15% 104
14 Michael Soroka 4 at TOR/ARI 79.2 4.74 1.38 12% 91
15 Will Warren 4 ARI/at PIT 22.2 10.32 1.90 17% 103
16 Cade Povich 4 BOS/at KCR 79.2 5.20 1.43 10% 98
17 Emerson Hancock 4 DET/at SFG 60.2 4.75 1.34 8% 101
18 Germán Márquez 5 at PHI/ATH 4 6.75 2.25 -5% 96
19 Tyler Anderson 5 at STL/CLE 179.1 3.81 1.29 9% 98
20 Chris Paddack 5 at CHW/HOU 88.1 4.99 1.39 15% 113
21 Kyle Hart 5 CLE/at CHC 0 0.00 0.00 0% –
22 Sean Newcomb 5 at BAL/STL 10 6.30 1.70 -2% 82
23 Luis L. Ortiz 5 at SDP/at LAA 135.2 3.32 1.11 12% 100
24 Miles Mikolas 5 LAA/at BOS 171.2 5.35 1.28 13% 108
25 Jordan Hicks 6 at HOU/SEA 109.2 4.10 1.45 10% 94
26 Martín Pérez 5 MIN/at DET 135 4.53 1.48 10% 104
27 Cal Quantrill 6 NYM/at ATL 148.1 4.98 1.52 6% 97
28 Joey Estes 6 CHC/at COL 127.2 5.01 1.23 12% 107
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats | 4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1394 – Opening Day: Closer Crashouts

by
March 30, 2025

3/28/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

  • Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
  • Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

SMALL SAMPLE THEATER

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Paul Sporer’s 2025 Bold Predictions

by
March 27, 2025

It’s Bold Predictions time!! Check out the rest of the staff’s predictions here. I’m trying to have some spice here while also having a real path to coming to fruition. I know whenever we do these later in draft season there are inevitably some folks who bummed that it comes out when draft season is mostly done, but I promise you these are incorporating players I’ve already discussed at length this offseason so if you’ve been reading my work or listening to the pod, you’re aware of my affinity for these guys. Without further ado…

Seiya Suzuki is a Top 10 OF

Honestly, this is a playing time prediction as the skills are already there for Suzuki. He has been a .284 AVG/21 HR/11 SB guy the last two seasons with 583 and 585 plate appearances, respectively. This year, he pushes 650+ with his first fully healthy season and delivers a .290/30/15 season with 95+ R and RBI.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 26th, 2025

by
March 26, 2025

Baseball Eve, we’re so close now!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1393 – SP Preview Pt. 6

by
March 25, 2025

3/24/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

SP PREVIEW PT. 6:

TEAM-BY-TEAM OVERVIEW OF THE REST OF THE POOL

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1392 – SP Preview Pt. 5

by
March 21, 2025

3/21/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

SP PREVIEW PT. 5:

Tier 11

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Starting Pitcher 2025 Fantasy Rankings

by
March 20, 2025
Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Welcome to the Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2025!

JUMP TO FULL RANKING LIST

We are live more than a month earlier than last year which helps those diehards drafting through the winter while the living, breathing document aspect of them allows us to keep these relevant all the way through draft season in March. The Hot Stove is positively blazing which has brought about several updates before even going live. Chief among them being a pair of premium lefties joining the AL East.

The updates will come regularly as I fill in the profiles over the coming weeks while also reacting to the news as it happens. We still have an ace who needs to be signed, plenty of trade rumors already in play, and the inevitable out of nowhere trades that we will get at some point this offseason. Feel free to leave comments about guys who don’t yet have a profile, but just know that one is coming. I intend to write up all 200 before we reach Spring Training.

First update is finally here in early-January and they will be much more frequent now that we’re out of the holiday season!

—

My body decided to get a nastyyyy flu at quite literally the worst time of the year. I’m finally starting to feel a bit better today so those more frequent updates I promised last time will actually start coming through consistently.

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OK, I reworked the ranking quite a bit instead of just going 1-200+ within each tier. A lot of y’all had been asking for that after the first release, so there you go. I still have lots of profiles coming so stay tuned for those!

—

Profiles will continue to flow as we approach March. As I dive deeper on pitchers, rankings will continue to shift. I obviously don’t want to be making sweeping changes to the them in mid-and-late March so y’all can have confidence in them as your drafts come up so I expect the massive swings to slow down after the next couple of updates. I’ve been battle-testing my rankings with multiple drafts recently and that’s been a key driver behind a lot of movement. I had my TARF draft last Sunday (board can be found here, I’m team 4) which is part of the EARTH set of drafts as well as the LABR mixed draft (board) this past Tuesday and both were eye-opening in terms of where I sit with a lot of pitchers.

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More rankings movement, more profiles and unfortunately more injuries. We’re at that time of the year when the injuries will start rolling in with way more frequency than any of us want.

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Mid-March, we are in the thick of it now! Good bit of movement again today as things really start to develop with Main Events starting over at the NFBC. We’ll be through the Top 100 profiles w/the next update, but if you have questions about anyone without a profile yet, please don’t hesitate to drop a comment.

—

Another big update here on March 20th because the injuries just won’t stop! Last massive draft weekend before the season starts and then one more draft weekend for those who go right after the season gets going. I’ve battle tested these rankings in several drafts so I made some big moves based on guys I kept passing over at their current ranking and others I’ve been zipping up my board.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1391 – SP Preview Pt. 4

by
March 20, 2025

3/20/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

SP PREVIEW PT. 4:

Tier 9

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