Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 726 – Top 30 SPs for 2020

8/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

TOP 30 SPs

I didn’t do individual player timestamps because I didn’t want to spoil the list!

  • Just Missed (1:00-24:39)
  • 30-21 (24:40-40:40)
  • 20-11 (40:41-53:43)
  • Top 10 (53:44-1:09:35)

Please let me know if there was someone I didn’t mention that you consider worthy or if just your general thoughts on where someone is slotted, particularly if you have him markedly higher or lower than I do.

Read the rest of this entry »


6 Second Half Surging Starters

A group of guys who’ve shown some improvement lately and could have more success on the horizon. Note to my deep league managers, this group is mostly available in shallower formats (all are sub-50% on FantasyPros, which blends Yahoo! and ESPN).

Jeff Samardzija | San Francisco Giants

The Shark has rediscovered his teeth this year. After an injury-riddled 10-start lost season in 2018, Samardzija was an afterthought in 2019 drafts going in the 20th round or later. He got off to a fast start in April (2.53 ERA), but then saw his HR issues return in May and June (1.9 HR/9), posting a 5.75 ERA and winding up on waiver wires across the fantasy community.

Read the rest of this entry »


Hitters to Watch

Pardon the brief intro, but I’m coming to you live from Disney World! I wanted to give you a few guys to look for on your waiver wires this weekend!

Mike Tauchman OF – NYY | 141 wRC+

With the absurd number of injuries that have struck the Yankees, it’s kind of surprising that Tauchman is just now breaking through. He got some playing time in April, but couldn’t make it happen, posting just a .177/.282/.387 line as a .211 BABIP held him back. He has become a lineup staple since the All-Star break and he’s absolutely raking. He has a .413/.471/.825 line with 6 HR and 4 SB in 70 PA and I’m sure Alex Chamberlain’s wife is tired of hearing about his crush’s numbers every night! With Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on the IL, Tauchman’s playing time should be solidified for the foreseeable future. Buy!

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 725 – Spicy and Icy

8/8/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 724 – Playing the Schedule

8/7/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

Paul looks at the remaining August schedules and highlights some potential streamers so you can get a leg up before they are front and center on the waiver wire.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 36 minutes of joyous analysis.


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 723 – News and Notes; Aug. SP Rankings

8/6/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

  • Josh Bell getting a rest (1:20)
  • Jose Leclerc returns to closer role (7:43)
  • Kolby Allard debuting Friday (8:00)

Read the rest of this entry »


Biggest Risers in August SP Rankings

Taking a closer look at what drove the biggest risers in my latest SP rankings.

Jeff Samardzija, SF | +65 to 52nd

For those of you who don’t have Shark on a team or aren’t familiar with his numbers this year, take a quick guess at his ERA and WHIP on the season. You may be surprised to learn that he’s at 3.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his 126.3 innings of work. He isn’t just leveraging Oracle Park, either. His home/road splits are very close as his ERA is just 0.25 points higher on the road while his WHIP is actually 0.05 points lower. He is carrying a heavy platoon split (LHB are +186 in OPS at .803) so you might be careful with him in switch/lefty-heavy matchups like Arizona (potentially 6 switch/lefty batters on any given day).

Read the rest of this entry »


August Starting Pitchers

July was a nightmare. August looks better. Slogging through the July rankings was remarkably difficult because it seemed that everyone after about #40 or so was the same and they were somehow all awful. The middle of the pool has crystallized a bit and hopefully the deadline leaves things settled for a bit, too, outside of the unpredictable injuries. Speaking of injuries, I don’t include guys who are out for a long time, but I did start to put some guys back in who are due back within the week or so (the longest might be P.Lopez, who is tracking around mid-August).

Please leave your questions and comments below!

The tiers are as follows:

#1s (10 SPs) – The true aces of fantasy baseball.

Must Start (20 SPs) – Should be pretty obvious, but these are the guys who always start. Again, it isn’t just the very best guys. There are second and third tier arms in terms of market value that I’d start every time out. They don’t have an obvious split or weakness that would give you a better chance at picking off their poor starts. Some of them are “No Coors Field”-types, but it’s predominantly set it and forget it for the foreseeable future.

Usually Start (20 SPs) – If “No Coors Field” is 20-25% with the MS group, it’s more like 60-70% with this group. You need to find a reason to sit them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day or they could get smacked by a weaker opponent. If you’re rostering them, you should probably be starting them.

Shallow Spot Start (30 SPs) – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. These guys might also be US tier arms here temporarily while they get on track. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a gauge for future production, especially in small samples. I decided to split the group a bit as sort of a way to identify upward or downward mobility for these guys. The shallow ones are a bit more talented and/or running hot so we’re maybe keeping a closer eye on them.

Deep League Spot Start (40 SPs) – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength, so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be plucked and the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).

Read the rest of this entry »


Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 2nd, 2019

Transcript is below, thanks for coming out!!

12:01

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! I’m back after a week off, let’s talk some baseball!!!

12:02

Zipp: I hate catchers, that is all

12:02

Paul Sporer: But Will Smith is an absolute monster!

12:02

Don Juan: What do you think the upside for Aaron Sanchez is?

12:04

Paul Sporer: I mean it’s hard not to be excited about what the Astros could do for him given their recent successes. It might not click until next year, but I’m willing to bet on spec in most leagues that he can be a low-4.00s guy with solid win probability

12:04

Rickey H.: A Duvall in Nl

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 722 – Trade Deadline Breakdown

8/1/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

TRADE DEADLINE REVIEW

Read the rest of this entry »