Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 20th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Hey everybody! Let’s talk some baseball

Hannah Hochevar: With Rasmus joining Dickerson in TB, is it fair to say the Rays outfield is ‘hardcore-y’?

Paul Sporer: Get out.

Paul Sporer: lol kidding, I did laugh at that

Buff: 12 team NL only 5×5. Rebuilding this year, playing for 2018/2019. Please rank: Drury, Toles, Hernan Perez.

Paul Sporer: I think you just did. I just don’t buy Perez so I’d prefer the other 2

roger: Do you think Josh Bell will split playing time with Jaso and Freese?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’ll lose some time because despite being a switch hitter, he doesn’t hit lefties too well

Chris: Austin Meadows is fantasy relevant in ___________ .

Paul Sporer: NL-only leagues? It’s less about him and more about their outfield being really good (I think Cutch bounces back)

Ron: Should I trade away Hosmer & Gallo for Gary Sanchez?

Paul Sporer: I’d be OK with that, though it’d be helpful to know league context

Bob: What are your thoughts on Andrew Triggs? Deep league sleeper?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think so. Solid base skills, good GB%. Deserved better than his 4.31 ERA

Hannah Hochevar: Hi Paul. Really enjoying your ADP stuff but stymied by being in auction leagues. Is there a standard (if uneven) ADP-to-Auction$ conversion? I’m especially interested in only leagues, though that’s perhaps too many kettles of fish removed. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I can’t find anything immediately. Just pinged Jeff Zimmerman and he has done some work on it, but not in a particular piece. I think he’s going to do something in the near future for us, so stay tuned.

Buff: How much of a plus is the trade for Dan Straily? How do you rank him as NL only starter over the next 2/3 years?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think his ERA is really going to improve, but rather that he’ll have a good shot at “earning” a similar ERA (in other words, his ERA/FIP will be much closer as Marlins Park should help stifle his HR issue)

Rick: Is Schwarber’s true talent avg/obp 250/350?

Paul Sporer: Projections are closer to .265/.355 but the difference is negligible between .250 and .265, so essentially yes.

Ian: Hi Paul – based on what you saw in 2016 can you rank for 2017: Matz, JGray, MMoore & Taijuan Walker? I like them all but trying to get a feel for valuation…thanks!

Paul Sporer: I like all four, too. I actually have them all within about a 12-spot clump – Gray, Matz, Walker, Moore.

Slamboni: Which C should I pick up for my dynasty league: Meija, Collins or Sisco?

Paul Sporer: Mejia

Rick: Dynasty H2H – Nate Jones better choice than Benoit or N Felix? Thinking Jones has a better shot of getting saves later in year, given Feliz and Benoit likely traded if they’re good?

Paul Sporer: With Robertson there, I’m just not sure Jones will thwart him. Love Jones if D-Rob is moved, but until then I think I prefer the two guys expected to close

Octavia: At what point do you invest in elite non-closer relievers vs Starting Pitchers? Quintana too high?

Paul Sporer: I’d much prefer Quintana. I probably get at least 60 SPs deep before preferring stud non-closers

MetsFanInUtah: Any worries about Lester losing grandpa rossy?

Paul Sporer: A smidge, but I think he’ll be good still

Golden Streamers: What’s Ryon Healy’s future value? I know he’s a hot commodity right now, but if I invest in a dynasty I want him to have a moderately high ceiling

Paul Sporer: I don’t think his ceiling is massive. I’m a big fan as I’ve mentioned at every turn this offseason, but I think the ceiling is a .285/30 season which is v good, but not *elite*

Twoseaming Action: Dynasty $120M budget – I have room for Freddie Freeman and estimate winning the auction at $20M or I could keep Carlos Santana for $10M. Rest of team is stacked, no holes and quality depth everywhere. They’d fill the UT slot. Is there enough difference in projections (5-year deals) to justify the cost?

Paul Sporer: It’s a pretty sharp AVG difference, but I’m not sure it’s worth 2x. If you have AVG coverage elsewhere on the team, I’d just go with Santana

Ant: How many of these players can/should I offer to land Trout? Correa, Springer, Polanco, Stanton, Freeman, Hosmer, Villar, Bird and Sano..

Paul Sporer: Love Trout, but I wouldn’t want to decimate my team. My guess is that someone trading would want Correa to start and go from there. I have no idea what would get accepted, but if you really want Trout, you could offer Correa, Stanton, and Hosmer.

Jc36: Is Tanaka the most forgotten-about Top 20 starter in baseball?

Paul Sporer: He’s a bit underrated right now and has been since news of his UCL tear came out. It’s a partial tear, though, and I think many have it in their mind that he WILL get TJ sooner or later and we can’t know that. I think some fail to realize that many pitchers have some kind of partial tear, but that can be 5% or 55%, we just don’t know. I still love Tanaka.

Yuk Yuk Puk: Should I be selling Jackie Bradley right now? Asked another way, is his value at it’s apex right now?

Paul Sporer: It’s probably in the upper reaches, ya. I’m a JBJ honk, but I recognize that plateauing is his best bet as opposed to getting markedly better at this point. V good real life player, but just a solid fantasy player

Ocean: General Question: Is there a specific percentage of auction dollars you like to have on draft day after keepers? It’s looking like I will have spent 68% of my total auction dollars on keepers.

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think there’s a general rule. It really depends on league setup and your individal team

Cliff: I feel like Marcus STROMAN is in for a big year. What are your thoughts Pete?

Paul Sporer: WTF is Pete?

Benson DuBois: Rate the following on most saves expected in ’17:

Benson DuBois: Ottavino, Neris, Kelley, or J Johnson. How would you rank for ’17?

Paul Sporer: Ottavino, Johnson, Kelley, and Neris (I think Benoit closes)

Octavia: What are your thoughts on xStats done by your colleagues? Pretttty interesting.

Paul Sporer: Great stuff to read. Always like learning and I’m glad they’re smart enough to do that stuff since I’m all good for is lame jokes about Giancarlo Stanton is like the toxic ex girlfriend you can’t stop talking to

Andy: Could a deal be worked around CJ Cron for Matt Strahm? Gives the Royals a long term 1B/DH and the Angels clear up salary and get a starter

Paul Sporer: Think the Royals might be working to extend Hosmer. They’re gonna keep someone(s) from their group of guys coming up for contract after this yr. They’ve dealt Davis and Dyson, could maybe deal another, but I think Hosmer and Moose or maybe Hos and Alcides get deals

Paul Sporer: Cliff, I like Stroman. I think he’s good for a mid-3.00s ERA with a good WHIP. Strikeout rate likely to be about average, though he did spike in 2H of ’16

ChicagoCardinal: Paul, Who are some guys who might be a bit undervalued because they’re old and boring?

Paul Sporer: Pretty much all of em, but a few specifically: VMart, Beltran, Rajai. Miggy at the high end, even though he’s no worse than a 2nd rounder.

JJ: How much playing time will Luis Valbuena get if he indeed signs with the angels? Will it depend on potential trades?

Paul Sporer: I’d say about 450 PA slotting in vR regularly

Tony: Am I overly optimistic if I think peak Albies can hit 12-15HR and steal 35-40 bases?

Paul Sporer: Power feels high, but agree w/SBs. more of a high AVG/high SB guy

Brad: Where would you rank fulmer this year? Adp is 35 behind Reyes which I think is absurd.

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t really see how he’s behind Alex Reyes. I’ve got Fulmer 31st right now

Paul Sporer: Eno and I discussed him yesterday and we think his ERA will in fact regress, but that his Ks could surge to offset it

Alex: trade my Correa away for Goldy & Villar?

Paul Sporer: Yessir, 100%

Pat: I can only keep 3 AL only auction: Hosmer ($26), JD Martinez ($26), Byron Buxton ($13), Chris Archer ($27), Zach Britton ($23) and Andrew Miller ($18). Standard Roto.

Paul Sporer: Martinez, Britton, and Buxton

OttoNeu: What are your thoughts about Beltre heading into 2017? Great season last year, but how long can it last?

Paul Sporer: Hall of Famers often have smoother declines, but I understand the worries at age-38 because at that age it can just go instantly instead of a steady decline. For Beltre specifically, I still trust him

JayB: in a 10×9 category, 12-team H2H “keep forever” keeper league with the following categories: R H HR RBI SB BB K TB AVG OPS and IP k/9 k/bb QS W ERA WHIP HRagainst….which player would you prefer: Hamels, Trumbo or KDavis. Would you trade Hamels straight-up for either of them?

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge Trumbo guy so I’d probably take Davis for him, but each is probably a fair deal

Benson DuBois: Rate the following NL pitchers on potential to bounce back: Strasburg, Harvey, DeGrom, Grienke, Cole.

Paul Sporer: Strasburg, Greinke, deGrom, Cole, and Harvey. I’m really playing wait-and-see with Harvey. Thoracic Outlet Surgery doesn’t have a great track record, but it’s relatively new, too, so I’ll have a close eye on Harvey in spring

Twoseaming Action: Jose Quintana vs. Matt Moore – worth the premium or worth the wait?

Paul Sporer: Not sure Q is better enough to offset 4-5 rounds, I’d wait for Moore

Jared: Who has the better year in an OBP league – Cutch or Piscotty? OPS league?

Paul Sporer: Cutch in both

Unexpected Erection: To piggyback on Hannah’s question- is there an auction price to draft round converter for those of us not in auction leagues?

Paul Sporer: Look for Jeff’s work in the near future on that

Dbagks: Do you see Robbie Ray being a potential fantasy sleeper this year? Pitching at Chase doesn’t help but high strikeout guy anyway

Paul Sporer: I’ve come around a little on him, but still don’t believe he was just unlucky. Was actually just discussing it –

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

@heathcummingssr Park and GB%

20 Jan 2017

https://twitter.com/sporer/status/822564700135292929

Aaron Hicks: Is Jacoby Ellsbury done yet?

Paul Sporer: Not entirely, but I’m still taking you as a late flier in deep leagues, Aaron

Greg: Who do you like and dislike in the Astros’ rotation?

Paul Sporer: Keuchel came to my birthday, McHugh never responds to my texts, McCullers uses me to hang with Charlotte, Fiers and I had a falling out, and I don’t really know Morton yet

Paul Sporer: McCullers is my fave, upside is still huge. Keuchel is a solid mid-to-high 3.00s guy, McHugh and Fiers are AL-only fodder, and Morton is an intriguing gamble. Injury cut him short in PHI, but he was showing something with his new velo. I’ll throw a buck at him in a few lgs for sure

sam son: why has there been no talk about Tetsuto Yamada being posted, great numbers in Japan

Paul Sporer: I don’t know him 🙁

Ken M: Google Paul Sporer DUI. You’re basically a criminal now

Nice work Pete

Paul Sporer: LOL, you jerks

Paul Sporer: i gotta delete that tweet now before ppl take it seriously

Bryan: Any chance JDM gets traded this year if the Tigers fall behind?

Paul Sporer: yes, definitely possibly

Paul Sporer: possible*

Trainman: Max Kepler: Like, Love, or Dislike this year?

Paul Sporer: Like

Brad: Is their much difference in production between rizzo and miggy?

Paul Sporer: Nope http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/you-should-take-miguel-cabrera-in-the-first-round/

Pete S.: Can Kepler make the leap into a top 40 OF this year or next three?

Paul Sporer: Ya he certainly could

Carl: Carlos Martinez or Chris Archer in a dynasty? Is it close?

Paul Sporer: Archer, but yes it’s close

Drew: Hey Paul. We love you in Tennessee…or I do, at least. Anyways, should I worry about Kevin Kiermaier’s playing time with the Rasmus and Smith additions?

Paul Sporer: Thanks!! No, you shouldn’t. His defense guarantees his spot. Bat is emerging, too. I like KK

Chaz: First year player draft (diamond mind), which Cardinal: S.Oh or A.Diaz?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Oh fan

Trainman: What are your thoughts on Tyson Ross? Just read today he’s going to be out until May / June. AL only league, should I even bother trying to spend $ on, or let someone else have him?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t bother. Let someone else deal with the headache this year and monitor him for ’18

Trainman: What are the odds Trevor may is minnesotas closer this year?

Paul Sporer: 36%

Trainman: Good afternoon Paul. Hope you are well. I play in an AL only league, OBP is a category. Would you keep (same price of $2) vogelbach or berrios?

Paul Sporer: Doin pretty well, thanks! I’d keep Berrios. Awful yr in 16, but I’m not giving up

Tim: Think Kelvin Herrera can become a top 5 closer?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I do and I’ve been drafting him as such since the Davis deal

Pete: Love the podcast. 20tm H2H Dynasty (holds lg) – trade Ottavino and Ramos for Betances?

Paul Sporer: Thank you! Even w/the holds I don’t think I’d do that. I really like Ottavino. And Ramos is pretty good, too. Dellin rules, but he’s not SO much better to trade two strong RPs for him

Austin Meadow’s Ass: hey paul, can you rank smyly, tai walker and nola for next year?

Paul Sporer: Nola, Walker, Smyly

anonymous: First impressions on ADP: which positions are you waiting on? Which positions do you want in early on? (hitters and pitchers)

Paul Sporer: Waiting on 2B for sure. Think there’s some depth to 3B, too. Would like a cornerstone 1B. I’m doing a series on the early ADP – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-adp-thoughts-outfield-part-1/

Bruce: Type faster my guy!!

Paul Sporer: Seriously?

Larry A: Will Cody Allen get more saves than Miller?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes

Moltar: Better keeper, slightly-below-market Lester or minimum Fulmer?

Paul Sporer: Min Fulmer

Dbagks: Also (in regards to earlier Robbie Ray question), is he a possible Top 25 SP in standard scoring leagues?

Paul Sporer: It would take quite a leap for that

Moltar: Solarte has long been one of my favorite bottom of the draft guys bc of his positional eligibility. He’s now only eligible at 3B for this season (had 1 and 2b last year), do you forsee him getting time at other positions this year? Any other utility types to target?

Paul Sporer: I love GOATlarte, too, but it does suck that he’s 1 position now. I could definitely see him bouncing around the IF and acquiring some in-season elig.

rustydude: Please rank Duffy, Fulmer, Smyly, Porcello

Paul Sporer: Duffy, Porcello, Fulmer, Smyly

Robert: Are these players worth the following in 12 team with OBP, mixed league: Yelich ($21), Cabrera ($44), Lester ($10)

Paul Sporer: Yelich is a little cheaper than market, Cabrera is market cost, and Lester is much cheaper

James: How do you feel about Ray if we add K/9 as a category?

Paul Sporer: It helps, but I’m still not gaga over him

anonymous: whoa, real high on Walker are we?

Paul Sporer: are we?

Paul Sporer: I guess I am higher. I’ve got him 45, market is 61st

President Clown Baby: is jd martinez (assuming health) a lock for .280 and 35 bombs?

Paul Sporer: Ya I feel good about that

Nick: So do you think Pollock can accomplish 15HR/30steals?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Cory: Quick one, Kiermaier or Broxton?

Paul Sporer: Kiermaier

Chris: James Paxton: dislike, like, or love this year?

Paul Sporer: Love

anonymous: Considering picking up MLB The Show next year just to get me through January. Oof, this has been rough

Paul Sporer: They’ve been pumping out new cards all winter. It really does help me get through it, tbh. I haven’t been able to really play at all this week, but I should have time tonight

ChicagoCardinal: Re: bounceback pitchers – is there a higher ceiling than Harvey?

Paul Sporer: He still has a v high ceiling if the TOS healing is quick

Paul Sporer: It’s just such an unknown, espec. bc so many who have had TOS were older

Brad: I’m seeing mccullers being drafted as top 50 sp. if he reduces walks and stays healthy, is top 15 possible?

Paul Sporer: There’s huge breakout potential, but he NEEEEDS to stay healthy. Something like a top 15 breakout is like a 5% outcome, but I’ll be investing in the upside

Chris: Re: Astros rotation…Do you see a young guy making an sizeable impact, i.e. Martes or Devenski?

Paul Sporer: Martes, Devenski, and Paulino will be waiting in the wings if injury or under performance strikes

Paul Sporer: Devenski is a sneak tip solid investment in deeper leagues

sam son: Do you believe in James Paxton as an ace, both in real and fantasy and would you keep at $13 in $260 auction with maybe 10 good pitchers not owned and available

Paul Sporer: Def keeping at $13. For me an ace is more established, so he’s not there yet, but he can be a strong #2 this year if he stays upright

Cory: Keeper draft for years but want to try something else. Where would you go for your first auction draft?

Paul Sporer: Can you start a home league? Live auctions are life!

Buddy: Expectations for Stanton this season?

Paul Sporer: Disappointment.

Paul Sporer: 35/.260

Bork: Hello friend!

Paul Sporer: Hi

Trainman: Over / under 180 innings for McCullers this year?

Paul Sporer: Under

30 is the new 20: With homers up so much last season, Hosmer’s 25 HR was pretty average right? Do you believe in Hosmer in a dynasty lgs? Is the skill set better than 2016 performance?

Paul Sporer: Ya 25 wasn’t special. He’s alright, but if he’s not hitting for high AVG, then his meh HR totals just don’t do much for me

Drew: what should my trade value be for my own Dansby Swanson in my 16 TM deep keeper?

Paul Sporer: Relatively high

DarkWing Duck: Sporer, when looking at Astros rotation, no info on Musgrove or Paulino. Where do you think they slot in?

Paul Sporer: Ooh Musgrove, forgot to mention him earlier. The Astros staff isn’t star-studded, but there is depth. If some of these backend guys don’t work out or get hurt, they have viable replacements. I like Musgrove

Andres: Please rank for dynasty: Taillon, Fulmer, Gray, Manaea

Paul Sporer: Fulmer, Gray, Manaea, Taillon

ping: young SP…rank: J.Gray, A.Nola, J.Paxton, R.Ray

Paul Sporer: Paxton, Gray, Nola, Ray

Trainman: OBP into consideration, who would you target for 2B: segura or odor?

Paul Sporer: if OBP matters, I gotta go Segura. Odor’s HR advantage means less if HRs remain high like ’16

Friar: What odds do you give Gallo getting 300 ABs this year?

Paul Sporer: 30%

Friar: Which side do you like in AL only roto, Brad Miller, Andrew Miller and Nate Jones or Hanley, Profar and Ian Kennedy?

Paul Sporer: Hanley side, but it’s a good deal for both, IMO

DarkWing Duck: Opinion on new Blue Jays Alt uniforms? I think they look dope. (Worn only on Sunday home games and certain games in July)

Paul Sporer: That red pops!

Paul Sporer: I like it, Just announced? Wonder if MLB 17 will be able to get em in

Trainman: Over under for correa: 25 HR , 100 RBI, 90 R , 15 SB and .850 slash line.

Paul Sporer: Can’t really do multiple categories for an over/under

Paul Sporer: Bc you have to answer em all individually

Paul Sporer: I’d say that’s a reasonable projection and there is a solid chance for more that’s why he’s a bona fide late-first, early-second rounder

Phillies Fan: Does Maikel Franco ever get to 30 HRs annually?

Paul Sporer: I can definitely see it. He’s very early in his career, be patient

Andres: Surprised Taillon last…are you down on him?

Paul Sporer: No, it’s a tough group, though

Paul Sporer: Think he can put up some 200-IP seasons of his ’16 numbers, but I don’t see him getting markedly better

Gator: What do you expect out of Tommy Joseph this year? Is he platoon bound?

Paul Sporer: He’ll get some off days vR, but more or less a full timer

Pete S.: I know you shouldn’t turn dollars into quarters, but I could use the depth in a dynasty. Yu for Hanley and Teheran?

Paul Sporer: I’m in on that, especially with your stated purpose

Paul Sporer: Couple more, y’all

Ed: If Robles tears up AA in 2017, do you think he can play in September?

Paul Sporer: It’s possible because anyone is a call away once in AA these days, but I don’t see it happening

Benson DuBois: Will Hunter Renfroe eventually be the Padres all-time HR leader?

Paul Sporer: Sure

Paul Sporer: (I have no idea)

Paul Sporer: But he does have exquisite power

Trainman: Thanks for answering all my questions, I greatly appreciate it. Just can’t wait for baseball.

Paul Sporer: No problem!

Boz: How many innings does Tyler Skaggs pitch this year? And is he a nice deep league option?

Paul Sporer: 165, yes

Iggy: Gun to your head. Keeper, leaves out Bregman, Beni, or Dahl?

Paul Sporer: Ooh damn

Paul Sporer: I think it’s Beni

Buddy: Who you like more: Joc or Grichuk?

Paul Sporer: Joc

Will: Byron Buxton or Keon Broxton? Who do you like better for 2017

Paul Sporer: Still betting on Byron’s upside

Iggy: Keeper……deeeeeeeeeep, Soler or Gurriel?

Paul Sporer: Soler’s PT seems more stable

Benson DuBois: Broxton and Dahl too much to give up for Villar?

Paul Sporer: It’s steep, but Broxton is flawed enough that he could end up being a virtual non-factor so then it’s Dahl for Villar

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get goin’! Thanks for coming out. Tons of activity in these last couple chats. Next week I should have more time for a bigger one

Miguel: thanks, Paul