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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• Harrison got trounced at SDP, including a Luis Rengifo grand slam, but just 3 of the 8 runs were earned. Unfortunately, there were no “unearned baserunners” so the 10 H and 3 BB resulted in a disgusting 2.77 WHIP. The fastball velo was down to 93.2, compared to a season mark of 94.9 and 94.6 in his first start off the IL which does give some pause that this is more than just regular ol’ bad start (hat tip to trashpanda in the comments for posting the velo info right as I was about to go search it up and saved me the trouble!), but I’m still riding with him today and this will be a pivotal start in determining there’s more to worry about. If it was a really tough matchup, I might suggest more caution in shallower leagues, but catching the lowly M’s gives him a great chance to get right and shake this one. Regardless of the results, keep an eye on the velo. Sub-94 mph again and we start to get some real concerns.
• Ray has 8 BB in 2 starts w/SDP after just 5 in his final 3 w/SFG which is just the standard inconsistency that comes with his game. NYM is surging of late vL (8th in L30 days) but it’s not enough to take me off this start. Ray is someone you generally just set and forget outside of injury. When he’s on, no one can touch him.
• Maybe Martinez should be above the trio of lefties with how electric his season has been for Tampa Bay. His already modest K% is even lower this year at just 14% and yet he’s got some of the best ratios going at 2.74 ERA/1.09 WHIP. MLB-bests of 4% BB and 85% LOB are working in concert to keep his WHIP tiny and make sure that his 1.0 HR9 stings a lot less than normal. There’s still some real “run-hot” to the season, but dammit, the Rays did it again!!
• Y’all already know I’m terrified about Baz being this high, but he’s earned it and of course, NYY is ripe for the picking right now (here comes 6 ER now that I said that, of course). Even with a Dud last time out, Baz has a solid 3.39 ERA/1.33 WHIP/15% K-BB in his L8. There’s still plenty of risk here even with the hapless Yankees.
• SDP’s offensive surge has come more vR than vL, but they are up to 11th in wOBA over the last month against southpaws so don’t take that 26th season rank totally to heart. I mentioned this briefly yesterday that we’ll need to be careful starting any ol’ pitcher against SDP as we were throughout most of the summer, but Thornton still clears the bar to get a full reco from me. He is susceptible here if the Ks remain light, though. He has just 7 total in his L3 starts for a mere 10% K%.
• Ashcraft battled through a brutal July, posting a 7.78 ERA in four starts, but he’s hit the road in August to get right. In three straight roadies, he’s allowed just 5 ER in 19 IP (2.37 ERA) and had his best start of the year last time out, allowing just a solo shot in a complete game at MIA with 10 Ks.
• Well, we mega-whiffed on Mahle! Justin, Jason and I thought his move from SFG to ATL would be a total bust given how much of a stark home/road split he had with the Giants. Instead, he’s had two of his best starts of the year, one at NYY and the other hosting NYM. Sure, neither of those offenses are anywhere close to scary, but I was concerned that Mahle would actively hurt fantasy teams regardless of who he was facing. This is a nice challenge for Mahle as MIN can hit it outta the park and they’ve been 11th in runs against righties.
• After an unstoppable 7-start run to open the year, Soriano labored through May and June, posting a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, boosting his ERA from 0.84 to 3.42 in the process. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts since then, but it’s worth noting that the 2.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP combo since then comes with just an 8% K-BB (he was at 20% during his opening 7-start surge). With that in mind, he’s not a must-start in the shallowest of formats, especially against a tough TBR team.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• This doesn’t really apply to McLean today as he’s an auto start everywhere, but it’s worth noting that SDP is on fire of late, sitting 1st in wOBA vR over the L30 days. They’re also up to 10th vL after spending the vast majority of the year in the bottom 5 both ways. This will definitely be a bigger deal for their MIN series later in the week and might cost Zac Thornton an “x” for Tuesday’s board.
• Wacha gets a remarkably hobbled ATH team with Tyler Soderstrom joining the rest of their best players on the IL. They’re on the road all week so it’s easy to play against them in that situation even without all the injuries, but now we might start considering more arms against them at home next week and beyond.
• I really don’t mind running Snell in any format, even in Coors. I gave him the extra “x” this morning after just 2-x on the initial board. Yes, Coors can clip anyone at any time, but we’re talking probabilities and it’s hard for me to drum up any major concern about the Rockies, even at home. The strength of their lineup comes from the left side, too, which obviously plays into Snell even more.
• McClanahan comes off the IL for a bizarre 2-step where he’s facing BAL both times thanks to a wraparound series that has him finishing the weekend set today and then getting ’em again this weekend at BAL.
• Board might feel a bit thin when Perez, Pallante, and Bello (who isn’t even traditionally starting) hit the Top 10, but they’re all deserving. Perez has been flat out amazing all year with a 2.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP in 106.3 IP and is currently in the midst of an 18-IP scoreless streak. Even with a pair of Duds (5+ ER outing) mixed in, Pallante has a sparkling 2.88 ERA over his L12 starts, totaling 72 IP. He’s still skills-light with just a 9% K-BB but a groundball stud with a great defense behind him can outrun modest strikeout numbers more easily. There’s still high risk with any given start, but hard to get him outta the rotation these days. And Bello has been dialed in since going to an extended RP role, posting an 0.81 ERA and WHIP across 6 appearances (22.7 IP) with a 20% K-BB. He hasn’t been a traditional Follower in each, notching a 3-IP SV in one of them, but he is lined up to follow today.
• Castillo is coming off a beautiful outing v. CIN last time out (7 IP of 1-hit ball w/10 Ks), but let’s keep things in perspective and not immediately throw him back into every lineup. The two starts before this were both Duds and the recently outing only just got him back below 5.00 ERA for the year (4.96).
• I took Mlodzinski’s “x” from the initial post upon further review. He has a pair of bad 3 IP outings since returning to the rotation and it’s not like the DET offense is a rollover. I’d probably start Bratt over him (not that I’m interested in either).

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8/14/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK20 (July 31st)

• AUTO-START: Cristopher Sánchez, Drew Rasmussen, Nolan McLean, Bryce Miller, Ranger Suarez
• Foster Griffin CLE – vs SF (28), @ COL (16) 4:50
• Framber Valdez DET – @ PIT (24), @ KC (21) 7:39
• José Soriano TOR – @ TB (3), @ NYY (16) 11:52
• Will Warren NYY – @ BAL (15), vs TOR (25) 16:50
• Michael Wacha KC – vs ATH (17), vs DET (12) 20:14
• Shane Baz BAL – vs NYY (16), vs TB (3) 23:00
• Nick Martinez TB – vs BAL (15), @ BAL (15) 26:00
• Andrew Abbott CIN – vs STL (22), @ ARI (3) 31:00
• Luis Castillo CWS – @ CHC (7), vs NYM (28) 32:55

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’m dealing with a nasty neck strain the last couple days so I’m heading to bed early and will get some comments going in the morning (might be late-AM if I can’t get ’em done before Justin and I record the podcast).

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• It’s always scary to take an SP in Sacramento, but Rasmussen is amazing plus the A’s have been melting as the season wears on with their three best players (Kurtz, Shea, and Rooker — if you want to say Soderstrom is over Rooker, sure, but it’s splitting hairs and there’s no disputing Kurtz/Shea as 1/2) on the IL and Gelof just returned two days ago. The result of these injuries has been a precipitous drop in home wOBA vR from 5th through July 25th – first game without Langeliers – to just 24th since then.
• This is why I stay living in the gamelogs: Framber’s L30 is a 4.58 ERA/1.63 WHIP but if you lop off the meltdown at CHC (6 ER, 7 baserunners in 2 outs of work), he’s at 1.89/1.32 including a great outing against the aforementioned hobbled A’s (7 IP/2 ER). And yeah, 1.32 WHIP is still bad but it’s a reminder how much a bad start can spoil a sample. Over these last 4, it’s 2 gems, a decent one (5 IP/2 ER), and the Cubs Dud. Plus, he gets a CLE team that has struggled with lefties all year.
• Miller doesn’t quite have the crazy home/road splits of teammate Bryan Woo, but it’s still nearly 2 runs of ERA (2.09 home/4.02 road) and nearly 40 pts of WHIP (.75/1.14). And yet, he’s a full reco for the same reason Woo was yesterday – the Yankees offense is rouuuugh right now. Only Miller’s own M’s are worse in wOBA than NYY since Judge’s departure on June 1st. They’re only marginally better when looking at their work vR at home in that timeframe (up to a whopping 27th!).
• C’mon, don’t burn me, Baz! If you read me consistently, y’all know I’ve been skeptical on him for a minute but he’s shaved his ERA down to 3.76 on the year so if you can afford some WHIP risk (1.32), I’m good running him anywhere today. He’s coming off his best start of the year (8 IP/2 ER/9 Ks at TEX) and has been dialed in over his L7 in all: 2.55 ERA/1.19 WHIP/16% K-BB. MIN can certainly pop off as evidenced by their 8th ranked offense vR for the year, but they are floundering down at 25th over the last month.
• Like I said, SEA’s offense is similarly awful lately, hence a full reco on Warren despite his inconsistency since June 1st (not related to Judge, just happens to be when he dropped off after a nice April-May: 3.23 ERA/1.20 WHIP/19% K-BB thru May | 5.49/1.61/12% since then.
• Once we get out of the 3-x realm, things gets dodgy immediately. Can Soriano keep BOS cold after their blazing hot run? They have just 10 R in their last 4 games combined after averaging 10 the 5 before that and of course the 15-game W streak not being that far in the rear view.
• Was the Mahle trade a sneaky gem for ATL? Not just saying that because he debuted with 6 scoreless and 9 Ks at the sputtering Yankees, but because he’d stabilized a bit in his last 7 starts with SFG (3.79 ERA/1.18 WHIP/12% K-BB). Even his Dud at SDP in his last start as a Giant still had 9 Ks! I only gave 2-x, but he could be started in a 10’er against NYM.
• I was too aggressive with Junk’s original rank so I dropped him to 1-x. I’ve been aggressively running away from PIT vR for most of the year and I am open to taking a shot on him at home with PIT sitting 18th in wOBA over the last month but only in 15s as more of a Hail Mary. He has such a stark righty-lefty split (.860 OPS vL, +256 pts his vR mark) that he might be the perfect Rx to get them out of their funk.

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Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Comments in the AM… or early PM, but games don’t start until evening so we should be good!

• Skenes is now staring down the barrel of a 4.00+ ERA, but whattya gonna do, bench him? No. Never. Still has 162 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, and 9 Ws.
• How about my guy Sandoval?? I’ve been a longtime fan and longing for his departure from LAA to a more competent org and when he landed in BOS, I was super excited for him to get healthy (they took a shot on him during TJ). The bill will come due on that .386 BABIP if he doesn’t get it under control soon, but I wasn’t going to pass this juicy matchup.
• Pallante has had an impressive summer and really entire year when compared against expectations, but particularly nice of late. Even with a pair of Duds mixed in, he has a 3.14 ERA/1.11 WHIP in 66 IP since June 1st. Now, it comes with an 11% K-BB which does make him scary to trust in any given start as that .274 BABIP during this run & .278 on the season could regress at any moment (.287 league average). Though I say and it’s worth noting that Pallante has a strong 55% GB rate and quality defense behind him.
• Woo has a brutal home/road record, but I’m sticking with him due in large part to NYY second to only Woo’s very own Mariners in wOBA since Aaron Judge’s exit from the lineup on June 1st. He still has a 15% K-BB on the road which is still well below his 20% home mark, but above the 13% league average.
• I miiight be closer to 1.5-x for Young at MIN, but while they are a good offense in the aggregate, he is catching them at a good time given that they are just 22nd vR at home over the last month.
• Bradford’s only in his 2nd start off the IL (4.3 IP the first time) so he could still be on a tighter pitch count but I’ll take the shot at LAA.
• Snell/Lodolo both off the IL in case you want to see one before getting ’em back into the mix.

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Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll take a closer look on some mid-tier guys in the morning, but a mostly straightforward shortened Monday board for us to attack.

3-x

• Scott, our posterboy today, has been great since returning: 3.25 ERA/1.17 WHIP/23% K-BB in 33.7 IP including a great outing and a meh outing against the same ATL team he faces today. (The great one is the more recent one).
• I’m not jumping off Mize just because of the brutal SDP debut. It happens, it was awful, and it still only moved his ERA to 3.04 on the year which underscores just how great he’d been prior to the meltdown.

2-x

• Wesneski maybe a bit shakier than I ranked here especially with SFG’s offense being mid-pack vR. I’m a big fan of Wes, but more for 27 when he’s further away from his surgery. I am starting the 2-step in weeklies with more confidence, though (v. SEA on the wknd).
• Cameron earned 2 for his recent performance (3.34/0.86/18% in last 35 IP) even with a trip to LAD today. They’re down to 12th vL in the L30 days which is still fine, but a good bit lower than their 6th season rank as they have been sputtering a bit of late as a team (2-8 in L10). LAD can always go off on someone so I get fading Cameron even with this encouraging outlook.
• Dobbins and Elder are pitching well on the season and of late, but still carry modest skills profiles (sub-15% K-BB for both) so they are susceptible to blowups, but I like both here. Philly, despite their record and presence of superstars, just never move up the wOBA board.
• Hughes might become my new Ryan Feltner – Rockies pitcher I desperately want out of COL to fully excel. I’d like to see more swing-and-miss in line with his MiLB figure this year (12% v. just 9% in MLB), but I don’t mind giving him a shot on the road.
• I might be overly cautious with Soroka off the IL getting Rockie Road (shoutout Nick Pollack!) so he’s more 1.5-x as I’m certainly open to running him in shallower formats if you’re comfortable w/guys immediately off the IL.

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8/7/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

DISCORD/YOUTUBE

• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2-START PITCHERS FOR WK21 (August 10th)

• AUTO-START: Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Dylan Cease, Bryan Woo, Sonny Gray, Eury Pérez, Logan Henderson, Christian Scott, Ranger Suarez
• Sean Burke CWS – vs CIN (30), @ DET (6)
• Reid Detmers LAA – vs TEX (7), vs KC (18) 7:00
• Ryan Weathers NYY – vs SEA (29), @ TOR (30) 9:58
• MacKenzie Gore TEX – @ LAA (15), @ ATH (10) 15:20
• Casey Mize SDP – vs MIL (5), @ CLE (20) 17:00
• Trevor Rogers BAL – @ MIN (25), @ TB (24) 22:14
• Freddy Peralta TB – @ ATH (18), vs BAL (13) 26:16
• Tanner Bibee CLE – @ DET (6), vs SD (19) 29:29
• Dean Kremer MIN – vs BAL (13), vs PHI (25) 31:35
• Noah Cameron KC – @ LAD (6), @ LAA (15) 33:55
• Hunter Dobbins STL – vs PHI (25), @ CHC (9) 37:42
• Hayden Wesneski HOU – @ SF (12), vs SEA (11) 39:20
• Bryce Elder ATL – vs NYM (28), vs ARI (29) 41:55
• Andrew Painter PHI – @ STL (24), @ MIN (8) 44:31
• Nick Lodolo CIN – @ CWS (11), vs MIA (13) 48:09
• Cody Bradford TEX – @ LAA (15), @ ATH (10) 51:10
• THE REST – 52:27
• Drew Anderson 앤더슨 DET – vs CLE (20), vs CWS (15)
• Jacob Lopez ATH – vs TB (24), vs TEX (7)
• Jameson Taillon TOR – vs BOS (27), vs NYY (14)
• Gabriel Hughes COL – @ ARI (29), @ SF (12)
• Ryan Johnson LAA – vs TEX (16), vs KC (21)
• Jake Irvin WSH – vs CHC (9), @ NYM (28)
• Blade Tidwell SFG – vs HOU (4), vs COL (22)

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Approximately 56 minutes of joyous analysis.

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