Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 8th, 2020

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July 8, 2020

Transcript is below!

2:05

Paul Sporer: It’s time to chat! I had a mock draft hence the hour delay on start time, btw.
2:12

Owen: You predicted Hampson to lead the league in steals. I love it. But where do you think he will get most of his PT? Is that a prediction that Hilliard and Rodgers don’t get much action?
2:12

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be the primary 2B and spot into the OF
2:12

Paul Sporer: Though I know the Rockies cannot be trusted to be smart
2:13

Bobby: Considering letting Nate Lowe ($4) go in a dynasty and trying to get him cheaper in the draft + keeping Eric Thames 테임즈 ($3) and his playing time instead. Wise gamble or foolish?
2:15

Paul Sporer: No, I can get behind this move for sure. Thames should have full-time against righties and it’s hard to guess at Lowe’s PT at all

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 826 – Picking Hitting League Leaders

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July 7, 2020

07/07/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

  • Everyone has COVID

HITTING LEAGUE LEADERS

  • HR AL/NL – Justin picks Cruz/Soler; Arenado/Suarez | Paul picks Olson/K.Davis; Schwarber/Conforto
  • SB AL/NL – J: Mallex/Merrifield; Villar/Dyson | P: Buxton/Mercado; Hampson/Edman
  • AVG AL/NL – J: JD/Fletcher; Cain/Kendrick | P: Arraez/Astudillo; J.Turner/Winker
  • R AL/NL – J: Bregman/Semien; Cutch/Nimmo | P: Kepler/Moncada; Albies/Akiyama
  • RBI AL/NL – J: Devers/Chapman; Harper/Bell | P: Cruz/Gallo; Story/Moose-Cast

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01:08:57

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Six Bargain Buys Using Projections

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July 6, 2020

Name value is a helluva drug in the fantasy game and often leads to overvalued players going several rounds higher than comparable players. Sometimes the name value is indicative of a star-level player who has shown heights in his past that are worth betting on at a loftier pick than his would-be equal counterpart, but a lot of times it’s just an opportunity to scoop comparable skills much cheaper.

Here’s one such case at each position using The BAT X projections:

CATCHER

Yasmani Grandal 116 ADP | Projection .235 AVG, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 71 R, 2 SB

Salvador Perez 158 ADP | Projection .255, 28, 81, 62, 0

A big part of this difference is that fact that Perez missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, Perez put up four straight seasons of 20+ HR with strong RBI counts (for the position) and decent R totals which is exactly what Grandal has done in his last four years. In standard leagues, Perez is arguably better thanks to spiking some useful batting averages over the years while Grandal is always a drag in that position (OBP leagues are a different story as Grandal has a career 14% BB rate). This three-round difference is almost certainly based on the fact that Perez is returning from injury and despite being a Grandal fan, I’ll take the discount.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 824 – Reviewing Justin’s ME Qualifier Draft

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July 2, 2020

07/02/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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01:01:55

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 1st, 2020

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July 1, 2020

Transcript is below!

1:15

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Let’s talk some baseball. My new SP rankings went live last week so I’m definitely open to questions on them: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-for-a-60-game-season/ (notes column on the rankings: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-notes/)
1:16

Babyfarts: What do you think of Thor in a dynasty league? Good buy low with hopes of half a season from him next year or do you think he is overhyped? Top 30ish still in this format?
1:17

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a huge fan so I’m down to take the gamble on the cheap. As long as there’s a reasonable discount, I say go for it
1:19

Jon: Keep 8 roto 12 team league. Judge/Torres for Soto fair? Which side do you prefer?
1:19

Paul Sporer: That’s heavy. I love Soto, but I’m not sure he and Torres are THAT different so Judge to cover the difference is too much
1:23

Sam: Thoughts on Kyle Gibson’s chance of a breakout?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 823 – Starting Pitcher Disputes

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June 30, 2020

06/30/20 

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.  

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS 

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01:15:15

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Top 100 SP Notes

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June 29, 2020

We’re just going to freeform this and make it essentially a notes column. I’ll start by saying that not every move is influenced by the 60-game season. In fact, few are. A lot of them are influenced by a change in health or just more studying that led me to make a move.

RISERS

Biggest moves up the rankings since my February 28th list.

Rich Hill +65 to 64 – He was slated to be out until June with an elbow injury so now his full IL stint happened in quarantine and he’ll now be ready from the jump. He’s been great on a per inning basis the last four seasons, but will he stay upright throughout this mini-season?

Michael Kopech +30 to 82 – Returning from TJ, Kopech was expected to miss some time at the outset of the season with a late-May/early-June target. Like Hill, that time has passed and now he’s made the 60-man roster, though his role is unknown. For fantasy purposes, it’d be perfect if Kopech was paired with an opener so if he’s limited to 3-4 innings, it comes in the middle innings and puts him in line for wins.

James Paxton +27 to 21 – 100% injury-related.

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Top 100 SP for a 60-Game Season

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June 26, 2020

Here they are!

I’ll have a whole column of notes on different guys on Monday. I just wanted to get the ranks out and we can start discussing them in the comments. This 60-game season is going to be so wild!

 

Previous list for comparison, though comparing a full season list to a 60-game one is tough.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 821 – Short Season Strategy

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June 26, 2020

06/26/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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00:49:47

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 24th, 2020

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June 24, 2020

Transcript is below!!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Baseball has a start time, let’s talk about it!!
1:03

Fleece Johnson: Any chance you can help get the new TheBATX in auction calculator?
1:03

Paul Sporer: I will mention it today!
1:04

Fleece Johnson: What strategy changes are you making in casual home leagues based on 60 games? Do any player types/positions move up your board compared to normal?
1:05

Paul Sporer: I haven’t made any changes to that effect, but my overall strategy in-season is going to change as I’m going to be moving a lot quicker. Obviously, I’m not cutting my #1 pick if he goes 0-fer in the first 6 games, but the last few rounds of players are getting a week or 2, the couple rounds before that are getting 2-3 wks, and so on
1:07

99: seems like a lot of people are selling for next year even with the season planned because it won’t feel as legitimate.  thoughts?

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