Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 8th, 2020

Paul Sporer: It’s time to chat! I had a mock draft hence the hour delay on start time, btw.

Owen: You predicted Hampson to lead the league in steals. I love it. But where do you think he will get most of his PT? Is that a prediction that Hilliard and Rodgers don’t get much action?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be the primary 2B and spot into the OF

Paul Sporer: Though I know the Rockies cannot be trusted to be smart

Bobby: Considering letting Nate Lowe ($4) go in a dynasty and trying to get him cheaper in the draft + keeping Eric Thames 테임즈 ($3) and his playing time instead. Wise gamble or foolish?

Paul Sporer: No, I can get behind this move for sure. Thames should have full-time against righties and it’s hard to guess at Lowe’s PT at all

Jill: Keep k. Marte in the 8th or lux in the 12 in 5 keeper 12 team roto.

Paul Sporer: I gotta go Marte. I don’t think 4 rounds is enough for someone who hasn’t done anything in the majors yet

Jonny: In one of my dynasty leagues, this year we did a World Cup-style thing where the four worst teams drafted divisions and we’re doing round robin and then a tournament. Embrace the weirdness, right? Anyway, I am fairly outraged because instead of picking the worst teams, one guy drafted my team, a way stronger team, and a comparably strong team into the same division. Only two teams advance from each division and I am concerned that my team might be disadvantaged. What do you advise I do? Should I complain a lot or dry my tears and move along? I’m not sure if it helps but the co-owner of my team is excited to compete and isn’t even a little upset. Help!

Paul Sporer: Loooove that y’all are embracing the weirdness. As far as the division you’re in, you just have to take on that other top team. Let’s be honest, with COVID and everything, it’s impossible to really handicap any team’s true strength or weakness

memeking: (pre-pandemic) I sent Yelich and Darvish for Bryce H. and Corbin. dyntasty points league. How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: Perfectly fine. It’s fair. I have Yelich over Harper but Corbin over Darvish. I don’t quite have the same split between the SPs that I do the hitters, but this is a perfectly defensible deal

Steve: Hello, keep 6 forever, mixed 12 team league. How early in the draft would you take Franco? FWIW, I should be in contention with current keepers, but he’s someone I really want to own. Thanks for the chat.

Paul Sporer: I really can’t take him before a teens round at earliest. I know he made the 60-man, but I still think TB slow roasts as much as possible

Brian: 12 team auction roto mixer strategy……maybe 2-3 aces but spread the risk on offense to handle injuries? Thanks Paul

Paul Sporer: I can definitely get behind that, with a little extra focus on positional flexibility to help cover it, too

Hank: Justin Smoak homered today

Paul Sporer: NL DH moves him way up, IMO. I was already looking at him as a nice reserve, now he’s CI/UT viable IMO

Nate: What do you make of the Cards pen situation? Does the Gallegos absence open the door for CMart?

Paul Sporer: Ya I believe there was a quote from Mozeliak yesterday saying Helsley could be in the driver’s seat with Gallegos gone for now and CMart could jump right back in there if he doesn’t prove capable of handling an SP workload

Paul Sporer:

 

Mark Saxon

@markasaxon

 

Asked about his team’s closer role today, John Mozeliak’s first response was Ryan Helsley, who finished last season on a roll. Also mentioned Gio Gallegos, who isn’t yet in camp and Carlos Martínez if he’s not fit enough to start. #Cardinals

8 Jul 2020

Bored: In a keep forever dynasty do you have a preference between sixto sanchez and nick lodolo?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Solo Lodolo

Pickles & Cream: First year of a deep 10 keeper start up where i tried to thread the needle on win now / win later. Would you pack it up for this year and try and sell off older guys and go for it next year or just say damn the torpedos and stick to my plan?

Paul Sporer: I almost never play for the future and since you tried to balance having a chance this year with the future, I say stay with going for it this year, it’s gonna be wild, but let’s secure that title!

Bill G: First time chatter.  What are the relative strengths and weaknesses for OOTP and DMB?  Do you have a favorite, and why?  Thanks!!!

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming through! I haven’t played DMB so I can’t compare the two, but I’m obsessed with OOTP. The depth of it is just unbelievable, especially in the offline mode. I focus on the Perfect Team online mode where you square off against other people’s teams, but the whole game is a baseball nerd’s dream without a doubt

Robert: Hey Paul! Is there a way you’re looking at to use short season to your advantage in fantasy?

Paul Sporer: Really leaning into schedule strength (at least early on, not sure I’m drafting guys based on their late-Sept. schedule), SP handedness by division, and positional flexibility to cover for injuries/COVID

Prohphet of the Sandlot: AL, Dynasty, ten teams, Standard Roto….For the 60 game season only…..do I have my SPs ranked correctly: 1) Bieber 2) Paxton 3) Civale 4) Eovaldi 5) James 6) Gibson 7) Duffy 8) Whitley?

Paul Sporer: Got Gibson higher, but generally agree: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-for-a-60-game-season/

Adam Dawson: Hey Sporer. This is Baseballfan from your Twitch Stream. Just got offered Ryan Mcmahon for Ryan Yarbrough, should I take it?

Paul Sporer: Yoooo, thanks for coming through! I’d definitely take that!

Dakota: Dynasty league and I’m trying to sell Nelson Cruz, and not a single person wants him, so I’m “stuck” with him. How many more seasons of must-start production do you think I’ll get?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t worry about the future, just enjoy his excellence now. Hard to say how his body will hold up, but his skills are beyond reproach right now so I’d be happy to be “stuck” with him, even in a dynasty league (to truly answer the question, I’d say 2-3 more seasons)

Heineken: Standard roto. Willie Calhoun or Schwarber?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got Schwarber higher, but legitimately love both and would have no problem pairing them in a 3-round stretch (or maybe back-to-back, but you can probably wait a round or two after taking Schwarber to get Calhoun)

Dakota: What position eligibilities do you think Josh Rojas gets this year, and how many MVP votes?

Paul Sporer: 1 (OF) and 0 (sorry, Alex Chamberlain!)

RMR: How are you valuing Carrasco right now?  Sounds like he’s planning on playing and is actually ready to throw 6+ innings, but he could opt out quickly if things go south.  Do you downgrade him for that or hold steady to where his talent would justify without the increased opt-out risk?

Paul Sporer: I think the market has downgraded him enough and I’ll take that discount as opposed to pushing him down any further. It could go south as he’s more at risk, but I’m not going to overvalue that risk in relation to others in the face of him being here and ramping up nicely thus far

Big Tuna: Any SP rise or fall for you because of schedule? Reds (easiest in the league)? Angels (toughest)? Etc

Paul Sporer: Favoring the central, particularly the strong-to-solid teams in the mega-central (so all but PIT, KC, DET)

Paul Sporer: But I won’t go toooo far and ignore good SPs in the East, for example

Dominikk85: Many say a WS this year would come with an asterisk. Doesn’t that depend a bit on the team?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I don’t think it matters. It’s a 60-game season, it has to come with an asterisk noting that it was 60 games. Still counts, but it’s unquestionably different

RMR: What do you think of Senzel’s stock right now in dynasty formats?  I feel like the industry has soured on him pretty quickly and there’s still a lot to like there.

Paul Sporer: Agreed that things have soured which creates a buying opportunity. I understand the frustrations with his health thus far, but this is still a mega talented bat and I’m open to buying, especially in dynasty leagues

John: What do you think Wander Franco’s draft value will be next year if he does not play at all this season? I have the opportunity to stash him on my bench this year and get him as a $2 keeper next year and $3 the following year in a 12 team H2H league

Paul Sporer: Even if he doesn’t play this year, I could see him being a $5-7 player next year on the hype so I can see stashing him if it fits your team

RMR: How much should we downgrade arms on these teams that are saying their starters will only throw 3-4 innings the first couple times through the rotation?  I really liked guys like Fried and Paxton, but I can definitely see both limited on innings the first couple times through with what’s being said.

Paul Sporer: I could see making it a tiebreaker but it seems like it could be a widespread issue so I’m not plummeting these types down the rankings

Dominikk85: If it was the astros or dodgers the RS would have been a glorified warm up anyway

Paul Sporer: Ya but if the Dodgers win it, you know people will clown them for not being able to win it in a full season (though there’s no much logic there because it’s not like they don’t make the playoffs in full seasons). Bottom line, though, this is just SUCH a different season that there’s no way we could pretend a title this year is the same as a normal, non-pandemic year

Nuke LaLoosh: Ottoneu H2H Points – Harper ($47)/Correa ($33)/Kela ($7) or Keller ($15)/Adell ($3)/Lux ($3). Money involved balances the transaction. Which side you got in Keeper?

Paul Sporer: That feels like a contend-now v. build-for-future trade so I think that’s the decider for me depending on where you’re at in the win curve. It’s definitely fair, IMO

RMR: I’m assuming a positive COVID test is a much bigger deal for arms at this point than bats since this is directly going to effect their ability to quickly build up their innings?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d agree that it’s a bigger deal for arms with symptomatic positives. You can follow things on this spreadsheet made by Jon Becker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WA37lkF6DNpjw_t_e_Sq08RyBYiTSK…

RMR: Does Kendrick get anything resembling full-time PT this year with Zimmerman opting out?  Love the bat and positional eligibility, but unsure if he’ll get enough PAs.

Paul Sporer: Yes I think he’s damn-near a full-timer now with the DH and his ability to bounce around the diamond. Sign me up! Dude is just a badass hitter

Guest: Rank and tier these back back ends starters

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-for-a-60-game-season/

Martin: would you grade my offense in the chat or is that lame?

Paul Sporer: I can do it. Make sure you include league settings (teams, roto/h2h, etc…)

RMR: How quickly does Braun get 1B eligibility this year (if at all)?

Paul Sporer: Needing 5 games? I’d think probably the first month. I imagine he’ll primarily play DH

Big Tuna: What are you doing with hitters who have already tested positive like Kingery?

Paul Sporer: I’m focusing on whether or not they’re symptomatic or not. If not, I’m not really moving them. Otherwise, I gotta bounce ’em down a couple rounds

Bilbo: If you have $5 to fill a UT position, do you go Ryan Braun or Nick Solak?

Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker for Solak, buuuuuttt his best case is likely to put up something akin to what Braun’s already BEEN doing so I gotta go for Brauny

Martin: 16 team 6×6 (OPS) roto

• C – Jansen
• 1B – Bell
• 2B – Mous
• 3B – Suarez
• SS – Manny
• OF- Yelich
• OF – Pham
• OF – Braun
• Util – J Turner
• Util – Hoskins
• BN – Ces

Paul Sporer: For 16 teams, that’s really nice! Balanced across the positions. Light on speed, but that’s where I’m OK being light if I have to have a weakness heading into the season. This group will rake

Big Tuna: Are there any categories that you prioritize more in drafts than you would have in a full season?

Paul Sporer: Not one of the standard 5×5, but rather PA. Playing time is a focus for me even more so than normal as I’m open to taking someone without a starting job at the beginning of a normal season because of his skills profile figuring that the cream will rise to the top. In this season, I’m trying to gain an edge via volume and think it’s more possible than in a standard 162

RMR: How would you value injured arms like Sale, Severino and Syndergaard in dynasty formats at this point?  With such a short season, holding those guys on the IL becomes a lot easier.  Trying to figure out how to rank them going forward.  I feel like Severino’s health is the scariest at this point given he had multiple issues and not just the elbow, but I guess it could be a total coin flip depending on who comes out of surgery best,

Paul Sporer: Ya I think going forward, I’ve got them Sale, Thor, Sevvy

Bilbo: You have Carlos Carrasco and Rich Hill ranked lower than I expected. What is the reasoning behind those ranks? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Carrasco was because his status was uncertain when I made those and Hill’s health profile still makes him a risk, even in a 60-game season. In fact, if he misses a few starts in a season like this, it’s even more damaging

Duchess: How we feeling about Aaron Judge? Last window to sell at something close to his normal value?

Paul Sporer: Love the talent, but I’m not sure I see him all of sudden finding health and putting up a buncha full seasons. He’s already 28, too, so yeah I’d say the window is closing to get big returns for him

JD: Any love for Ian Happ? Small sample size last year, but 11 HR in 58 games and managed to cut down a bit on Ks.

Paul Sporer: Huuuuge fan! Drafting him pretty much wherever I can!

Erk: Think Nate Pearson is up after a week? Think Logan Gilbert makes some starts this year? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Yes on Pearson and I could see Gilbert getting some burn later in the season, but I’m not sure I’m drafting him

RMR: Looking for a lower ranked 1B I could pick up later in my draft and kind of liking what I’m seeing in the data for Christian Walker.  Never been much of a fan, but he hit the ball hard, had a good batted ball distribution, upped his walks and even grabbed some chip-in steals.  The under the hood stuff seems to support what he did.  Think he can repeat this?

Paul Sporer: He’s been a bit forgotten, but I agree with there being a good bit to like with him and I’m a big fan of that team so the R/RBI potential should be nice, too

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: Plesac, Pablo Lopez, Voth, Stripling…..in a 95th percentile situation, could any of these guys make a leap to to 25 starter status?   Asking for an enemy…..

Paul Sporer: Yes, Stripling! I’m a huuuuge fan of him and now he has a role!!

Bilbo: We’re switching to from H2H to Roto for this shortened season. In H2H, I like to anchor my staff with two dominant SPs. Should I continue that strategy in Roto, or take one ace (I already have Verlander as a keeper, but I could go after Scherzer in the auction), or grab someone like Paxton and invest the $$ savings into my offense?

Paul Sporer: I like the 2-ace setup in either situation, tbh. JV/Max still feels reeeaaalllyyy good atop a rotation

Phil: Price is completely done for 2020? He has no option to return mid year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t believe so. I think once you opt out, you’re out

JD: Both of these guys could be leading off. Do you prefer Akiyama or Verdugo?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Akiyama. Better team, better division, healthier

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: You like hampson to start at 2b and also like McMahon.   You assuming McMahon plays 1B full time?

Paul Sporer: Yes and Murphy at DH

RMR: With guys like Gore, Pearson, Kopech, Howard and Puk, even if they get a starting spot are we going to see enough innings to make an impact?  Feels like all of these guys are going to be babied to some degree innings wise.

Paul Sporer: Not sure teams will have the luxury to baby them much. If they’re in the rotation, they’re needed.

Britton: What’s up with Franklin Perez? Any chance he plays for the Tigers this year?

Paul Sporer: Health has certainly slowed him and thus he’s yet to reach 90 IP in a season. I could see some relief, but he’s a non-entity in fantasy right now

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out, I appreciate all the questions! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!