Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 24th, 2020

Transcript is below!!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Baseball has a start time, let’s talk about it!!

1:03

Fleece Johnson: Any chance you can help get the new TheBATX in auction calculator?

1:03

Paul Sporer: I will mention it today!

1:04

Fleece Johnson: What strategy changes are you making in casual home leagues based on 60 games? Do any player types/positions move up your board compared to normal?

1:05

Paul Sporer: I haven’t made any changes to that effect, but my overall strategy in-season is going to change as I’m going to be moving a lot quicker. Obviously, I’m not cutting my #1 pick if he goes 0-fer in the first 6 games, but the last few rounds of players are getting a week or 2, the couple rounds before that are getting 2-3 wks, and so on

1:07

99: seems like a lot of people are selling for next year even with the season planned because it won’t feel as legitimate.  thoughts?

1:08

Paul Sporer: In fantasy or real baseball? I’m not just going to give up this year because it’s shorter. If I can win a title, I’m gonna go for it

1:08

Paul Sporer: As for real baseball, I’d imagine teams should be pushing harder because the small season volatility makes several fringe teams viable

1:13

Joe: Holy shit baseball

1:13

Paul Sporer: !!!!

1:13

Paul Sporer: This is going to be a wild ride, but let’s do itttttt

1:13

Launch Angle: will we see a lot of short starts in first 30 games? taking 1st in wins pitching category might be super hard to project

1:14

Paul Sporer: It’s always pretty hard, but yes I think this will make it even more difficult.

1:14

Joe: 60 games is going to make us wonder why we ever played 162

1:14

Paul Sporer: I disagree. Players need the long season for insane volatility to smooth out

1:17

Matt W.: NFBC announced their plans going forward.  Moshttps://nfbcforums.shgn.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=22468

1:17

Paul Sporer: I was actually JUST reading that, so thank you for posting

1:17

Zack: Would do a one off season if ur in dynasty or just roll with the circumstances

1:18

Paul Sporer: Yes I’ve heard the single season league idea for dynasty leagues. Leave their current dynasty intact but then play a one off league for this wildness.

1:18

Matt W.: Do you think there will potential FA’s just sit out the season to prevent injury. Like the NBA is seeing?

1:20

Paul Sporer: I think we could see some. There’s still soooooooooooooo much to be settled before we even hit the field. I don’t think we’ll see a rash of them, but I could see a one off or two FA doing it

1:21

RMR: Keeper league that keeps ~120 players each year.  I’m toying with the idea of going significantly more for youth / upside in the draft than I normally would (i.e. taking basically no vets unless they have upside and profile as a possible keeper).  Thinking being that I’ll end up with a couple of nice long-term keepers and I could end up competing anyway given the season is so short and weird things are bound to happen.  Our league is also talking about decreasing (or even eliminating) the buy-in this year, which makes this strategy easier to stomach.  Thoughts?

1:22

Paul Sporer: I’m honestly open to trying any type of strategy this year and considering that this one could also aid you the following year, I say go for itttt!!

1:22

Joe: If you’re in a keeper league, what do you think about pausing the entire league for this year, doing a redraft, then going into 2021 with whatever team you started the “real” 2020 season with?

1:22

Paul Sporer: Totally get it. I was just mentioning that a bit earlier in chat and think it’s definitely a reasonable idea

1:22

RMR: Assuming nothing goes way wrong in the next week or so, have they said when actual ST games would resume (vs. a date for just showing up and starting camp again)?

1:23

Paul Sporer: Let’s not assume that because that will break out hearts. Shit will DEFINITELY go wrong, but that said, they’re eyeing a start in a month (late July)

1:23

Jen: is baseball back?

1:23

Paul Sporer: kinda sorta yaaa!!!

1:25

\__O__/: do you consider the new rangers stadium to be more like a grill or a barn?

1:25

Paul Sporer: pardon?

1:28

Jim: Clevinger for Cy?

1:28

Paul Sporer: He’s VERY much a candidate, I love ClevDog

1:28

RMR: Right, I saw the July 24th start for regular season, I meant for spring (or summer) training games.

1:28

Paul Sporer: Oh I have no idea what spring II is supposed to look like

1:29

RMR: What are we to do with prospects in the upper minors (Pearson, Gore, Bohm, Howard, etc.) at the moment in terms of valuing them?  Seems like no one knows if these guys will be up sooner or not at all now.  Just wait and hope we get more info from the teams once ST resumes?

1:29

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think we have to give it some time to hear from the teams regarding taxi squads and all that. There won’t be any minors so it’s going to be a weird setup

1:32

\__O__/: What player is going to get boosted up like crazy in 2021 based on 2020 small sample and why is it Buxton?

1:32

Paul Sporer: looooooooooooool Buxton is finally gonna go off and then be a 2nd round pick next year

1:34

J.D. Martin: For leagues drafting now, Trout has to fall from the preseason rankings right?  His wife is pregnant and due in August and he’ll surely miss some time

1:35

Paul Sporer: I’m still taking him in the first round, but I totally understand moving him down within the 1st as he does seem near-certain to take time off and given how short the season, a week off would be very impactful

1:37

Quarantino Martinez: BASEBALL!!!!!

1:37

Paul Sporer: Yesssssssss

1:37

Guest: Thoughts on Brendan McKay?  Mine are that he gets all innings he can handle, so he can contribute in 2021.  Also, Yarbrough/Chironis can are proven “openers”, so can more easily be slid out of the rotation.

1:38

Paul Sporer: I think the three of them and Trevor Richards are 3-5 inning guys and paired together often

1:39

\__O__/: What are your favorite NL bats that have jumped in value based on DH? Edman?

1:41

Paul Sporer: Here are my guesses at NL DHs from a while back: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/potential-national-league-dhs/ — and yes I think the DH boosts Edman and makes him a full-timer player

1:41

Paul Sporer: though I was already on the “Edman will play a lot” train

1:41

Lorenzo: In general, should we put a premium on guys who hit for high average like we do for SB guys?  I understand there is no guarantee that a player who hit .300 last season will do it again.  But guys like Jeff McNeil, D.J. LeMahieu, and Bryan Reynolds seem way under-ranked.

1:42

Paul Sporer: Do you mean bc it’ll be a short season and they might be less prone to the volatility of those samples given then penchant for contact? I agree that they’re underrated in general and I’ve been targeting McNeil & DJLM even before the shortened season bc of their skills & positional flexibility

1:42

Matt W.: Don’t think there will be any spring training games. Each MLB team is training in home cities. Travel and exposure would be risky.

1:43

Paul Sporer: That’s kinda what I was thinking. Scrimmages only. No sense adding to the other already massive risk with games that don’t even count

1:43

Quarantino Martinez: As an AL only player, I wonder what I have to do now that AL west teams are going to visit coors, etc.

1:43

Paul Sporer: There’s more work to be done with regards to what you’re talking about specifically, but I did put together a breakdown of the SP handedness for each mega division – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/sp-handedness-breakdown-by-division/

1:44

Ed: If you had to set the over/under for # of fantasy roster-worthy players who will opt out of 2020, whats the number?

1:44

Paul Sporer: Opt-outs, I’d say like 6. Guys out bc they get COVID, I’d think there will be 10s of players in that realm as we ramp up

1:48

Guest: That makes sense.  Thoughts on Fulmer?

1:51

Paul Sporer: It looks like he could be ready from jump street. I’m always nervous about guys coming back from TJ so I’m not going alllll in this year, but I’ve always been a fan so I’ll be moving up the rankings and keeping a close eye on him

1:51

RMR: Will we be able to glean anything from the 60 man rosters that get announced Sunday?  Or is that just going to tell us what we already know (i.e. any prospect in the upper minors is in play, but no one knows when they’ll be up)?  Like will any team just elect to leave some of those guys off and do something else with them like an instructional league or something?

1:52

Paul Sporer: I imagine there will be some surprising/interesting inclusions so we’ll get some useful info

1:52

Martin: Think Yahoo will make it easy to switch scoring (H2H->Roto for example) for leagues that have already drafted?

1:53

Paul Sporer: Ooh I’m not sure, especially with already-drafted leagues. I think outlets will try to be as amenable as possible to their players but it might be hard to change league structure after being drafted

1:54

Chap: In a QS league, any way you’d draft a Pearson/Howard/Gore over Caleb Smith? You have a preferred order of the trio?

1:54

Paul Sporer: No I’m taking Smith unless any of them was someone locked into their team’s rotation from day 1 (which is very unlikely). In terms of the trio on their own, I like ’em as Pearson/Gore/Howard

1:57

Martin: Do you see Renato Nunez making any gains or just a 30 dinger .780 OPS type?

1:58

Paul Sporer: I think that’s kinda his level but hey there’s definitely fantasy viability there. There aren’t a ton of lefties in the mega-East for him to beat up on, either

1:58

Joe: With increased bullpen usage and bigger rosters, expect offense to be more at a premium? Would you draft a pitcher in the first two rounds?

1:59

Paul Sporer: I think the aces could be even MORE valuable right now so I’m definitely open to drafting an ace early if it fits with my first couple picks

1:59

\__O__/: Are we buying back on Garrett Hampson?

1:59

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m dumb and like to continue letting the Rockies disappoint me

2:02

Lorenzo: What do expect out of Vlad Jr. this season?  Solid breakout candidate to target, or more patience needed, let someone else take the gamble?

2:03

Paul Sporer: He wasn’t the unmitigated superstar we hoped for last year, but he also wasn’t bad. I think he builds on it and has a really strong season. I haven’t been targeting him bc 3B is super deep, but I’m not averse to paying the price

2:03

KD: Thinking of trading Trea Turner for Bo Bichette and Moncada. Should I hold?

2:03

Paul Sporer: Do that in a second!!! BOTH for Turner??? Damnnnnnnnn

2:05

HappyFunBall: I’d think this is the season for ALL the gambles. Variance will be huge, so playing conservatively probably won’t help much

2:06

Paul Sporer: There isn’t one set way. You can draft a ton of volatile guys and they hit the low end of their range the first few weeks and you’re toast. A team of steady Eddies can absolutely compete. It’s going to be a wild season, but I wouldn’t push me into taking ONLY volatile guys or anything

2:09

Pharx: This is absolutely the season to make some wild sports bets though. Bet those longshots!

2:09

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure!

2:10

Paul Sporer: (but manage your bankroll responsibly and don’t spend your bill money!)

2:10

BBHHI: Paul,  AL-ONLY for 2021: Who are you keeping from this list:

2:10

BBHHI: List: Fulmer $1, Roark $1, Luzardo $8, McKay$8, McCuller $3, Clevdog $18, Heaney $10.  AL-Only and you can only keep 5.  Who do you keep?

2:11

Paul Sporer: ClevDog, McCullers, Luzard, Fulmer, and Roark

2:12

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. After get some concrete details and fire up draft season again, we’ll have some longer chats. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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