Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 1st, 2020

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Let’s talk some baseball. My new SP rankings went live last week so I’m definitely open to questions on them: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-for-a-60-game-season/ (notes column on the rankings: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-notes/)

Babyfarts: What do you think of Thor in a dynasty league? Good buy low with hopes of half a season from him next year or do you think he is overhyped? Top 30ish still in this format?

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a huge fan so I’m down to take the gamble on the cheap. As long as there’s a reasonable discount, I say go for it

Jon: Keep 8 roto 12 team league. Judge/Torres for Soto fair? Which side do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: That’s heavy. I love Soto, but I’m not sure he and Torres are THAT different so Judge to cover the difference is too much

Sam: Thoughts on Kyle Gibson’s chance of a breakout?

Paul Sporer: I can see it, maybe something in the realm of a mid-3.00s ERA with a mid-1.20s WHIP. He was en route toward a breakout last year until ulcerative colitis and Texas has done some good work with recent SPs so hopefully they have some ideas for Gibby… I know it’ll make Justin happy

Babyfarts: Any hope for a Matt Manning sighting this season?

Paul Sporer: There’s a chance, but I think prospect speculation is even harder in a year like this than it is normally

Kevin Ginkel: I feel like not enough people know about me. Do you see me as the future closer in Arizona?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been an Archie Bradley sucker for a few years, but he’s far from having a firm hold on ARI’s closer role. Ginkel had some nasty stuff and could definitely challenge for the role if Bradley falters or if ARI decides to use Bradley in the fireman role, they could slot Ginkel into the 9th

Toby: Does Ohtani play any OF or 1B this year or pure DH/SP?  I hate carrying Util bats.

Paul Sporer: I doubt it. Tangentially, this does bring up an interesting question about whether or not leagues will change eligibility rules to account for the shortened season

Babyfarts: In a points dynasty league how big of a difference is there between Vaughn and Torkelson? Position doesn’t matter to me

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure there’s all that much difference for fantasy. I’ll lean Tork as a Tigers fan, but admittedly they’re close enough for that I’m just playing team favorite

WAR – What is it good for?: With Mateo going to San Diego, what type of a line do you see Barreto producing? Is he worth rostering in a 15 team?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s worthy a 15-tm gamble with power/speed capability. I’d see him around a 20 HR/15 SB performance over a full season, so prorate that. I am curious about the AVG given his swing-and-miss, but the counting categories make him worth a late pick in deeper leagues

Andi: Does kopech have a decent chance for quality starts? If no, would sandy alcantara be better in a standard 5×5 roto with qs for W and sv+hold for sv

Paul Sporer: QS are going to be a nightmare in general here and I think young arms could really be facing an uphill battle for them, especially someone like Kopech coming off TJ. From a QS standpoint, I’d def favor Alcantara.

Tatis Tots: Who would be better in a QS vs W league: Hill or Alcantara? Has to be Sandy right?

Paul Sporer: Yep, another one for Alcantara. Hill loves going 5 innings

The Elephants: My understanding of the rules on minor league option is a little vague how can Jorge Mateo be out of options if he’s never been called up?

Paul Sporer: I believe once you spend 6 years in the minors, your options are used up

Babyfarts: Saw Puk was the biggest faller on your top 100. I was intrigued as I pictured him being a riser since he is now health and seemingly without an inning restriction. Did anything cause him to fall other than worry about the A’s handling of him?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-notes/

Sho: How much playing time do you think La Stella gets?

Paul Sporer: He should get quite a bit. I’m a big fan, especially if he leads off against righties in that strong lineup.

JAMAL: Is Zack Burdi going to dominate this year, or will he even pitch? Looking for K-bb champions

Paul Sporer: Zack or Nick? My guess is Nick since he’s made the majors and flashed some crazy stuff. Nick does appear to be back & ready to go, he could definitely find himself in an important role in their bullpen

lenny: Is aquino legit? Will he ever be a star?

Paul Sporer: His power is real, but I’m not seeing star… standard low-AVG, high-power bat, but now with DH, his chances at PT increase substantially

Guest: You OK with moving Uriquidy or Maeda for B Anderson,I’m good on arms but could use help with extra  corner INF and he needs arms

Paul Sporer: Yes I’m good with that. I’m a Brian Anderson fan. I like both pitchers, but I’d prefer to keep Maeda between the two

brad: Justin Mason just ranked Gio Urshela 36th among 3B, how is that possible, there is absolute ZERO chance he loses at bats to andujar, so how can he not be not only a top 30 3B, but top 15?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m not sure that one checks out. I’ll have to ask him. He has to be thinking that Urshela just doesn’t play much

Stayin Healthy: Are you using your reserve spots on pitchers or hitters this year?

Paul Sporer: I generally keep a split and will maintain that again this year. The deeper rosters and wild season means you should be prepared for just about everything so I’d ideally have myself covered across my reserve roster

Lorenzo: Despite his pathetic BB%, is Amed Rosario a good late round source of SB and perhaps even a possible breakout candidate in his age 24 season?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, there’s definitely upside here. He doesn’t walk much, but he doesn’t K a ton, either. He can run, has a bit of pop, and his defense improved which should secure his spot. SS is super deep which keeps his price affordable, too

lenny: Who is your favorite minor league player that could become the next Acuna, if you had to pick?

Paul Sporer: Jo Adell & Luis Robert are the obvious ones but you kinda have to look at the more obvious ones when you’re projecting the next uber superstar

Quadrangular: any gut feeling on the number of players that will end up sitting out 2020 (if there even is a season)? 10% of player pool? 2%?

Paul Sporer: I put an O/U of 30 and I’d be inclined to lean over. Totally understand anyone sitting out, of course

lenny: What current stud starter do you think Lazardo could become like, if things play out as projected?

Paul Sporer: At peak, he’s a top flight lefty in the realm of a Blake Snell

PB&Js: I’m in a 12 team weekly league that looks unlikely to move to daily even with the abbreviated season. I want Kevin Cron because his upside, like his corpus, are huge. Any way I justify playing him in my util with his platoon situation?

Paul Sporer: Not in a 12-teamer, especially if he’s on the short side of the platoon. If he finds his way into a full-time role, I’d be interested in just about every format

Quadrangular: any up-and-coming power-speed combo guys that you’re betting on long term?

Paul Sporer: Kristian Robinson, O’Neil Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr., and Jeter Downs

Big Joey: I’m debating whether to take G Richards or Ginkel with my last P spot. My league does has Holds as a category, but I feel I should have as many SP as possible. Right now I have Pomeranz (sp/rp) and could carry 6 RP total. I guess the question is 6 RP and 6 SP or 5 RP and 7 SP?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Richards. Ginkel is nice as outlined after an earlier question about him, but middle relievers emerge all over the place. Richards – with health – could be a game changer

Big Joey: Laureano and Colome or Hilliard and N. Anderson?

Paul Sporer: Laureano side for me

\__O__/: Are there any wild strategies you are considering testing in your home leagues in this small sample season (more lineup stacking, punting a category, pocket aces, etc)?

Paul Sporer: Yes, we discussed this on the pod yesterday, there is absolutely no better time to try out some stuff you’ve always wanted to but maybe have been nervous to try

Lorenzo: Regarding late round flyers for SP, should the division/league they play in factor heavily in who to choose?

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Central

JAMAL: re: Burdi, yes I meant Nick with the Pirates. It’s hard to tell where he will fit in the bullpen, but he was dominate with a 17 k/9 before getting hurt again

Paul Sporer: Kela has the gig right now but if Burdi goes off, he can absolutely ascend into a key role

Cannon: Say Justin Upton’s toe turfs again and Brandon Marsh gets a full time role- 12 team relevant?

Paul Sporer: Almost anyone with a full time role is a worth a look in 12-team and I’m a big fan of Marsh, too

Jack: Can you give your opinion on Starlin Castro?  Apparently him hitting third is on the menu, and I’m curious what kind of value that can provide if he’s hitting after Trea Turner and Juan Soto.

Paul Sporer: If he’s hitting 3rd, there’s def some upside. I will say that this shortened season undercuts one of his big selling points, though – volume. In a 60-game season, it’s hard for guys to separate themselves with a ton of PA

JAMAL: Is Deivi Garcia worth holding for this year and for dynasty purposes? 12 teamer H2H

Paul Sporer: Dynasty, yes, but I wouldn’t expect a huge 2020 return

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!