First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series last week (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 5 player next year, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers (which will be today’s focus), 48 in 12s, and 40 in 10s.

Max Fried | Atlanta Braves, SP | 71 ADP

If Fried hadn’t gotten hurt last year, he would’ve set a new high in innings and if his ratios had held (3.04 ERA/1.09 WHIP), it would’ve been the breakout. Instead, he matched his 2019 IP total (165.7) so I can still finagle him into a breakout situation with the idea being he pushes 185+ IP of equal or better ratios and perhaps even more strikeouts. We are only going into Fried’s third full season so there is still development happening here.

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What are sleepers? Do they even really exist anymore in the information age? The term is definitely bastardized to the point where you might come across a “sleeper list” that is littered with picks inside the top 150. It could just be semantics of defining “sleepers”, but guys taken that high just don’t qualify.

For me, sleepers don’t start until player 300 in 15-team leagues (~200 for 10-teamers, ~240 for 12-teamers). There isn’t a perfect cutoff, but it is fair to tab anyone going after the 20th round as a “sleeper”. We saw the likes of Tyler O’Neill (303 ADP last year), Logan Webb (322), Cedric Mullins (348), and Emmanuel Clase (399) among the major sleeper hits last year.

I’m using the NFBC ADP and putting a start date of 1/1/22 for this first version of Sleepers. And yes, the Vol. 1 in the title does mean there will be more than one of these articles over the remainder of the winter!

Luis Patiño | Tampa Bay Rays, SP | 302 ADP

Patiño enjoyed a nice development season with 77.3 IP in the majors and 29.3 IP at Triple-A. He showed flashes of his upside, highlighted by a 6-start run during which he posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 30 Ks in 31.7 IP. A mid-to-high 90s heater and strong mid-80s slider make him hell on righties (.594 OPS) but the lack of a bankable third pitch is a big reason for his platoon problem against lefties (.830 OPS). He is still just 22 years old, though, so there is still time for the third pitch to come together. Patiño could reasonably reach 150 IP this year and that slider could generate more than a strikeout-per-inning. The ratios will depend on his development against lefties and ability to reign in the homers, but I’m happy to pay up for the potential.

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Transcript is live!!

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1/25/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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BAT X GEMS

• Gary Sánchez (8:15)
• Trey Mancini (15:13)
• Jean Segura (19:12)

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The lockout makes this position the most uncertain on the fantasy diamond. With the lack of December and January moves, there is still so much unsettled in the closer market. To give you an idea of just how wild things are, my #14 RP is in the same bullpen as my #1, but I firmly believe Craig Kimbrel will be traded before the season starts so I’m treating him as a pretty impactful closer right now. I’ll start with a standard 1-70 ranking of relievers and then give 1-2-3 outlook of each team based on how things set up right now.

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1/21/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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MOVERS & SHAKERS IN THE NEW YEAR

(Biggest top 300 ADP changes comparing Oct-Dec [43 drafts] v. Jan [47 drafts])

UP

• Corey Knebel +207 picks to 187 ADP (3:33)
  • Craig Kimbrel discussion
• Marcell Ozuna +104 to 196 (10:50)
• Enrique Hernández +31 to 209 (16:54)
• Mitch Garver +29 to 193 (21:09)
  • Adley Rutschman discussion
• Josh Jung +26 to 263 (27:11)

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107-55 (1st in Division; 1st in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 58 (5th)

RP Wins: 49 (2nd)

Saves: 56 (t-1st)

1+ Save: 8 (Jake McGee 31, Tyler Rogers 13, Camilo Doval 3, Zack Littell, Dominic Leone, Caleb Baragar, Wandy Peralta 2, Jarlín García 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Kevin Gausman 227, Logan Webb 158, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood 152)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Buster Posey .304, Brandon Crawford .298, Donovan Solano .280, Brandon Belt .274, Wilmer Flores .262)

65+ Runs: 5 (Kris Bryant 86, Crawford 79, Mike Yastrzemski 75, Posey 68, Belt 65)

65+ RBI: 3 (Crawford 90, Bryant 73, Yastrzemski 71)

10+ HRs: 11 (Belt 29, Yastrzemski, Bryant 25, Crawford 24, LaMonte Wade Jr., Flores, Posey 18, Darin Ruf 러프 16, Evan Longoria, Alex Dickerson 13, Austin Slater 12)

5+ SBs: 6 (Slater 15, Crawford 11, Steven Duggar 7, Wade Jr., Kris Bryant 6)

BEST BUY: Alex Wood

It is hard to settle on a Best Buy because so many of their guys have injury issues that are built into their price. Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb, and Brandon Belt are all in the 200-260 pick range which is a very fair price for what they are capable of doing. Wood rebounded after pitching just 48.3 innings in 2019-20 and posted a career-best 26% K rate that helped him to a 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 138.7 IP. The talent is clear, it all comes down to his health. Just plan for 125 or so innings and take anything beyond that as a bonus.

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106-56 (2nd in Division; 3rd in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 65 (1st)

RP Wins: 41 (11th)

Saves: 56 (t-1st)

1+ Save: 10 (Kenley Jansen 38, Blake Treinen 7, Corey Knebel 3, Joe Kelly 2, Phil Bickford, Victor Gonzalez, David Price, Alex Vesia, Andre Jackson, Shane Greene 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Walker Buehler 212, Julio Urías 195, Clayton Kershaw 144, Trevor Bauer 137)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Trea Turner .338 in 228 PA [total: .328 in 646 PA], Corey Seager .306, AJ Pollock .297, Justin Turner .278, Mookie Betts .264)

65+ Runs: 4 (Max Muncy 95, Betts 93, Chris Taylor 92, J.Turner 87)

65+ RBI: 5 (Muncy 94, J.Turner 87, Will Smith 76, Taylor 73, Pollock 69)

10+ HRs: 10 (Muncy 36, J.Turner 27, Smith 25, Betts 23, Pollock 21, Taylor 20, Seager 16, Albert Pujols 12, Cody Bellinger, T.Turner 10 [total: 28])

5+ SBs: 4 (Taylor 13, T.Turner 11 [total: 32], Betts 10, Pollock 9)

BEST BUY: Trea Turner

I know, this is a super-boring pick as Turner is literally the 1.1 pick in many drafts, but the incredible upside combined with a rock-solid and relatively high floor are exactly what you want in those first few picks of the draft. The move to LA also added some eligibility as he will be 2B/SS in 2022. Some of their oldies like Justin Turner, AJ Pollock, and Chris Taylor might offer more bang for the buck given where they go in drafts, but their age (37, 34, and 31, respectively) dings the stability of their floors a bit.

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1/18/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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IN FOCUS: STEAMER600 GEMS

• Oneil Cruz (5:15)
• Hunter Renfroe (11:35)
• Adam Duvall (19:40)
• Harold Ramirez (25:28)
• Jesús Sánchez (34:43)

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100-62 (1st in Division; 3rd in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 42 (16th)

RP Wins: 58 (1st)

Saves: 42 (10th)

1+ Save: 14 (Diego Castillo 14 [total: 16], Andrew Kittredge 8, Pete Fairbanks 5, J.P. Feyereisen 3, Jeffrey Springs, Dietrich Enns 2, Collin McHugh, Josh Fleming, Matt Wisler, Chris Mazza, Ryan Sherriff, Nick Anderson, Trevor Richards, Evan Phillips 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Shane McClanahan 141, Tyler Glasnow 123, Michael Wacha 121, Ryan Yarbrough 117)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Randy Arozarena .274, Joey Wendle .265)

65+ Runs: 4 (Brandon Lowe 97, Arozarena 94, Austin Meadows 79, Wendle 73)

65+ RBI: 3 (Meadows 106, Lowe 99, Arozarena 69)

10+ HRs: 10 (Lowe 39, Mike Zunino 33, Meadows 27, Arozarena 20, Yandy Díaz, Brett Phillips, Nelson Cruz 13, Wendle, Ji-Man Choi 11, Manuel Margot 10)

5+ SBs: 6 (Arozarena 20, Phillips 14, Margot 13, Kevin Kiermaier 9, Wendle 8, Lowe 7)

BEST BUY: Brandon Lowe

Lowe fronted the league a couple months, hitting just .189/.307/.372 through May, though he was still pacing for a 30 HR/10 SB season. He exploded from June on, posting a .276/.357/.600 with 30 HR and 4 SB (50/7 full season pace). All told, he wound up with 39 HR, 99 RBIs, 97 R, and 7 SB in 615 PA. The AVG was light at .247, but he still wound up at the 35th best hitter in the game. He is being drafted 82nd overall and 50th among hitters. While he might not fully repeat 2021, he is a solid bet for 30 HR, 85-90 RBIs, and a handful of SBs.

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