Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 9th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Welcome to my chat, pardon my tardiness!

Broseph: 14-team OBP league that uses TB/BB instead of HRs:
Juan Soto (cost: $5, $10, $15 then FA) has been floated for my Luis Robert ($2, $5, $10, $15, then FA) and Eloy Jimenez ($2, $5, $10, $15, then FA). I’m torn but seems like a possibly great deal for the format.

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s a really interesting deal. I could definitely get down with going for Soto!

A Tribe Called Kipnis: After Bieber, in what order do you want to own the Cleveland starters Civale, McKenzie, Plesac, and Quantrill (in deep AL only leagues)?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-sp-rankings

Paul Sporer: I love Civale, but also have interest in McKenzie and Quantrill. Keep a close eye on Cody Morris in deep leagues, too.

Michael: You buying Boston’s Verdugo as a 2022 breakout candidate?

Paul Sporer: Yes I like that profile type built on hit tool and if his power can take even small step forward, he can be a fantasy beast!!!

Matt: Harrison Bader’s defense will keep in the lineup – thoughts on the chances he takes the step forward at the plate needed to become a superstar?

Paul Sporer: Love Bader this year. Made some huge strides in strikeout rate this year and if those are legit, I think he is a big breakout candidate

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Andres Gimenez or Amed Rosario?

Paul Sporer: I lean Rosario, but I have been researching Gimenez more and have come around a bit. I think they are closer to a toss up

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Man, catcher gets ugly quickly.  Will Mitch Garver get 450 PA? If he can get enough DH time to get to 500-550 PA, how much does he move up the C rankings?

Paul Sporer: Projections already have him for 400 which I’d love, so 450 would be amazing. He’ll get starts here and there at DH, but I doubt it’d be enough to push 500. I have him 10th and if I had the specific power needs, I could go as high as 8th over Ruiz and Kirk

Matt: Triston McKenzie is this year’s pick to become top 15 SP, why am I wrong?

Paul Sporer: Health is the major reason you could be wrong. He has the talent to do it for sure

Matt: Do you play Mario Kart? If so, who’s your character?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t in forever, but I was a Waluigi guy

Breezy: Who throws the most innings this year?: Liam Hendriks, Strasburg, Thor, Severino

Paul Sporer: That’s really interesting! I’ll go Thor, but I might just be a superfan of his

Dave Roberts: With the DH hopefully coming to NL, how do you see Dodgers using the DH spot? With Bellinger, Pollock, Turner, Smith, and an injured Muncy potentially, it seems a lot of players rotating in and out of DH, so not sure if it’s worth bumping the values on any of these players due to potential DH spots.  Are you bumping any of their values up due to DH?

Paul Sporer: Dodgers will 100% use it as a rotating spot. They already use most of the on-field spots as such so they will def use the DH as that

Matt: Which Rake Cronenworth is real: the beast from 2020 or the merely solid performer of 2021?

Paul Sporer: Here’s the thing, he was the same player both years! Or essentially, at least. I mean 31 pts of OPS isn’t insignificant, but he likely would’ve wound up closer to his ’21 numbers if ’20 was just 2 mos. I think it’s easy enough to do a projection essentially in the middle of the two figures around .810-.815

felemen: Hi Paul, I saw your don’t draft with Sal Perez; what’s your breaking point for catcher (or any other position that’s bad) value to draft? Like, when does it become more advantageous to draft a worse player at a scarce position instead of better players at other positions? Sorry that it’s such a convoluted question

Paul Sporer: It’s a great question, though can be tough to answer since it kinda all depends on how you’re building. But in general, I aim to have a strong C1 (top 10) bc the dregs are sooo harmful. I think there’s a bit of underrating of how much the awful catchers hurt you. And the edge you can have over the others teams with a pair of solid catchers can really help. I just don’t think Sal is going to match ’21 at all. He’ll remain good and an advantage to have at C, but not a top 50 pick for me

Airwhite54: When will the season start in your opinion Sporer?

Paul Sporer: mid-April

Paul Sporer: (just a blind guess, I have no idea)

Guest: I’m in an obp points league and I can keep Mullins or Tyler O’Neill in the 18th round. I gotta keep Mullins, right? No contest?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say no contest despite my concerns on O’Neill regression, but I will indeed pick Mullins

bobloblaw: Carlson or ONeil?

Paul Sporer: I still have O’Neill a good bit higher than Carlson. I still love Carlson, though. I wonder if that 20 SBs in ’19 were just a random spike or if he could bring some of his speed to the majors

Paul Sporer: Not that’s he super fast or anything, but he could drop a low-double digit SB total IMO

Killa P: Who is more likely to put up a wrc+ of at least 110, Enrique Hernandez or DJ Lemahieu? Most projections like Hernandez better (except Steamer) but wondering your opinion

Paul Sporer: I would say DJLM. I think he will bounceback pretty well. Probably not completely on the power, though

How come I didn’t know??: So I’ve been told in these chats that some stadiums play very differently (always comparatively to other stadiums; why else would a fantasy player care??) in April than they do come, say, July. So where is this monthly data? Anywhere on this site? Somewhere else? I’ve looked some, and never found it.

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen monthly stadium splits but it’s heavily climate-related so it’s more of a general offensive depression in colder weather places during Apr/May and then scoring explosion in summer

Guest: You have first pick in a 14 Team Roto Keeper league.   You have T Anderson as SS already as 1or your 7 Keepers, do you pick Trea Turner 2B/SS or J Ramirez and get a reliable 3B?

Paul Sporer: Trea has been my 1.1 and I don’t think Anderson changes that since I can still put Turner at 2B. Ramirez is a VERY viable 1.1, though

JakeJakeJake: Chances that Severino rebounds? What do you think his price range is in a standard ottoneu points league?

Paul Sporer: I think there is a decent chance and he’s being overlooked. He finished the season on the field and I always love that with injury guys even if it’s just a few innings like Syndergaard and Sevvy.

kal: 12team H2H dynasty league, would you trade Robbie Ray for Arendon or Riley?

Paul Sporer: I’d do it for either. Arenado probably better this year, but not so much that Riley isn’t the pick in a dynasty league

Sampson: Our league uses AVG Against as an additional pitching category .. are there any SP you would sink in rankings because of it?

Paul Sporer: Ones with bad defenses behind ’em, especially if they don’t have great strikeout rates. I don’t have names off the top but that’s mostly bc teams are incomplete thanks to the stupid lockout

Joe: What does a full year of Tyler O’Neill look like?  Are we facing a serious regression from 2021?

Paul Sporer: I’ve spent a lot of time on O’Neill this offseason so while it is a perfectly fair questions, I’ll just direct you here https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/5-players-im-removing-from-my-draft-boar…

Insert Witty Name Here: Weekly Show question: do you use the guess pitch feature? I prefer to have a more natural game and I turn it off, wondering if that’s why it’s hard for me to connect with opponents often.

Paul Sporer: No no I don’t have it on. I don’t think you can have it on for online play tbh

Guest: For a last keeper spot (no salaries) on a contender in a format that favors power hitters and pitcher WHIP: Votto as UT, or Means as ~8th best SP.

Paul Sporer: I love Votto and think he can continue this newfound power, but I’d still pick Means with your setup. I feel like Votto is easier to get back or get someone equal in draft

RayRay: For this year, Vidal Brujan, Josh Lowe or Xavier Edwards for most ABs?

Paul Sporer: Gahhhh I wantttt it to be Brujan, but I’m gonna say Lowe. I still think they find a way to move Kiermaier after the lockout and then give Lowe a shot. Brujan likely needs something ELSE in addition to a KK trade to find premium playing time

Banging Scheme: Jeremy Pena or Amed Rosario for this year, assuming Houston goes with Pena at SS?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Rosario

Joe: 2 Keepers to Choose – O’Neill, Jazz, Urias, India, Alonso, Riley

Paul Sporer: Without any other context, I’d go Urias/Alonso

John: Have you ever tried a fantasy draft using players and their stats from an already completed season where the final standings are determined as soon as the draft is completed? If so, was it any fun?

Paul Sporer: During the pandemic, Ron Shandler ran retro leagues when we did just this and it was SOOOO fun!!! It’s a completely different challenge, not particularly easy, but GOBSSS of fun. Todd Zola made an amazing spreadsheet for it and if you’re interested in running such a league with friends, I’d reach out to him! https://twitter.com/ToddZola

A Tribe Called Kipnis: This is likely only of interest to OBP leagues, but Isaac Paredes still gets halfway decent projections. Any chance he could play his way into relevance?

Paul Sporer: Yeah Paredes’ plate skills are the main draw here and I wouldn’t rule out the 23-year-old getting a real shot, though he’s unlikely to win a job out of spring so I’d only draft him in super deep formats

Wario: I’ma Wario, I’ma gonna win!

Paul Sporer: Wario and Waluigi dominating life

David: You worried at all of Edman’s speed since he only stole 2 in 2020?

Paul Sporer: Not at all. I actually broke down his CS from ’20 and found they weren’t really anything to be afraid and it’s why I stayed so bought in for ’21. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/tommy-edmans-failed-sb-attempts

Bob: Do you ever dream about slow pitch softball? I do about once a week when I am not playing

Paul Sporer: I used to, especially when I played. I don’t have a team anymore bc our core all moved away

Bret: What are you penciling in as far as innings for Rodon in terms of innings

Paul Sporer: 130ish

Sugar: Will Trout ever steal 20+ again ?

Paul Sporer: If he’s fully healthy, yes

Paul Sporer: Or at least approaches it and if he can even get back into the high-teens, it’d be huge

Sugar: Do you still  have faith in Kelenic ?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure! Not deterred at all by his debut

Steve: Gleyber Torres ($7) for Verdugo ($11), fair deal? in dynasty

Paul Sporer: Yes it is

Jim S.: AL only with same auction price- Sal Perez for this season only or Adley for the next 3 seasons?

Paul Sporer: Wait what is that price? That seems like Perez is either pretty cheap or Adley is too much? I’m inclined to go for the win in ’22 and take Sal

Tom Mcneel: Any worry with Baz being on an innings limit?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m planning on it. I think he gets treated like McClanahan did this year

Paul Sporer: Luke Voit is on all 3 of my completed drafts and the two I’m in haven’t gotten to his part of the draft yet so we’ll see if we make it 4 or 5

Sampson: Who have you drafted the most so far?

Paul Sporer: Whoops, I answered before posting the Q lol

Insert Witty Name Here: In shallow leagues that only have the C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and OF x3, does that place a premium on any particular position? Specifically how does that affect OF since there’s more of them to go around?

Paul Sporer: In 3 OF, I do tend to push them back a bit. I will still gladly draft a stud OFer early, but I don’t love having 2 in like the first 6-7 rds bc it usually means I’m going to have to pass some really fun OFs in the middle of the draft

Dank Meme: How long until MJ Melendez makes his way to the MLB roster, and what playing time do you think he gets once he is in the show?

Paul Sporer: No idea tbh and being behind the biggest stalwart C in the league isn’t great for playing time. I don’t usually mess with catching prospects outside of occasional exceptions. Adley seems generational, but so did Matt Wieters so nothing is guaranteed

Eric: Can Aaron Nola be top 3 SP if regression turns positive?

Paul Sporer: Oh absolutely. He’s been top 3 before (2018) and can definitely get back

Peter: Hey, I hate high crown hats and when I go to Lids they have like one row at the very bottom of low crown hats, how did this happen? When I was a kid, if you had a straight bill, you were a total nerd. Think low crown will ever make a comeback?

Paul Sporer: I feel like I’ve been seeing more low crown inclusions on their site! Definitely a dearth of ’em in stores. I’ve taken to the flat bill and usually keep mine that way or maybe a liiiiittttllleee bend to it

DH: Who has the biggest impact this season: Casas, Pratto, or Gorman?

Paul Sporer: Casas! I’m not a huge Dalbec guy (the power is LEGIT and I see him as a Miguel Sano as opposed to someone set to expand on what he’s done… and yes, I’m aware of his finish to the season) so I could see Casas up for multiple months capable of doing some nice damage

Witty: Paul, what is your view on Pratto?  I am in a slow OBP keeper draft right now, and wondering if he is worth taking over guys like Jesus Sanchez for the long run.  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’d still lean toward Jesus Sanchez b/w those two, but Pratto is interesting. I’ll tell what has me struggling with Pratto hype is the presence of one Vinnie Pasquantino!! Pratto is a MUCH better prospect (VP isn’t even on lists) buuttt for ’22, VP could be up making a nice impact this year. Dude just RAKESSSSS

Paul Sporer: OK y’all. I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning/afternoon and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!