Paul Sporer’s 2022 SP Rankings
by Paul Sporer
December 31, 2021
Almost done with the first set of rankings as I still have OF and RP coming after the SPs today. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.
Let’s discuss in the comments!
SP Rankings
What to do about Buehler is the most fascinating question of ranking season for me. He’s coming off a career low K% (26.0) and beat all his ERA estimators by quite a bit, with xFIP (3.57) and SIERA (3.73) strongly disputing the idea that he deserved anything close to his 2.47 ERA. Do you see anything in his profile that suggests he’ll post a similar ERA in 2022 despite underlying numbers that look a lot more like Jose Berrios (your SP29) than the guys you’ve ranked around him?
Hard to argue with 207 innings of that sort of quality, on a team like that, as well as at least a theoretical better of odds of staying healthy
I don’t think ehalt found it hard to argue about that at all. LOL
Buehler’s floor is Berrios’s ceiling. With Buehler’s age he’s and past track record he’s about as safe a bet to return his investment as a SP1 as can be. 5×5 is about minimizing risk at the top of the draft, so if you want to grab a frontline starter he’s less likely than the guys listed after him to yank your team, even if his ceiling is a bit lower than others. I’m generally not buying a lot of the Steamer projections that seem to be vastly overrating 2020.
My exact point. You just said it better: The innings, the home park, the team he’s on, the wins, the chance that he will make every start. If upside is his drawback, I’ll take it, because there is all kinds of upside there as well.
One thing to consider is that Dodger starters consistently beat their FIP, as a staff, for multiple seasons now. WB beat his by more than usual, but Dodger starting pitching as a unit over the last 4 seasons is a quarter run better than it’s FIP. That’s a lot of innings and pitchers for the sample to be due to randomness alone.
I think this highlights a bit of an issue I try to catch myself and that’s seeing a player as only his most recent season. Buehler & Berrios had some similarities last year, but Buehler still had edges in SwStr, H9, HR, throws harder & has a deeper arsenal. He’s in the easier division and home park, too.
Looking at a 3-yr scope, it’s Buehler easily for me.
WB: 28% K, 6% BB, 12% SwStr, 6.9 H9, 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 427 IP
JB: 25% K, 6% BB, 11% SwStr, 8.1 H9, 3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 455 IP