Paul Sporer’s 2022 SP Rankings
Almost done with the first set of rankings as I still have OF and RP coming after the SPs today. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.
Let’s discuss in the comments!
SP Rankings
What to do about Buehler is the most fascinating question of ranking season for me. He’s coming off a career low K% (26.0) and beat all his ERA estimators by quite a bit, with xFIP (3.57) and SIERA (3.73) strongly disputing the idea that he deserved anything close to his 2.47 ERA. Do you see anything in his profile that suggests he’ll post a similar ERA in 2022 despite underlying numbers that look a lot more like Jose Berrios (your SP29) than the guys you’ve ranked around him?
Hard to argue with 207 innings of that sort of quality, on a team like that, as well as at least a theoretical better of odds of staying healthy
I don’t think ehalt found it hard to argue about that at all. LOL
Buehler’s floor is Berrios’s ceiling. With Buehler’s age he’s and past track record he’s about as safe a bet to return his investment as a SP1 as can be. 5×5 is about minimizing risk at the top of the draft, so if you want to grab a frontline starter he’s less likely than the guys listed after him to yank your team, even if his ceiling is a bit lower than others. I’m generally not buying a lot of the Steamer projections that seem to be vastly overrating 2020.
My exact point. You just said it better: The innings, the home park, the team he’s on, the wins, the chance that he will make every start. If upside is his drawback, I’ll take it, because there is all kinds of upside there as well.
One thing to consider is that Dodger starters consistently beat their FIP, as a staff, for multiple seasons now. WB beat his by more than usual, but Dodger starting pitching as a unit over the last 4 seasons is a quarter run better than it’s FIP. That’s a lot of innings and pitchers for the sample to be due to randomness alone.
I think this highlights a bit of an issue I try to catch myself and that’s seeing a player as only his most recent season. Buehler & Berrios had some similarities last year, but Buehler still had edges in SwStr, H9, HR, throws harder & has a deeper arsenal. He’s in the easier division and home park, too.
Looking at a 3-yr scope, it’s Buehler easily for me.
WB: 28% K, 6% BB, 12% SwStr, 6.9 H9, 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 427 IP
JB: 25% K, 6% BB, 11% SwStr, 8.1 H9, 3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 455 IP
Seems like the top 7 is a tier.
Robby Ray I think is quite a bit low. Agree with ehalt that buehler is a bit rich for me at #2. Though he is as bankable for wins as any.
Yeah, Paul’s comments on Ray and Eovaldi after such successful years would be welcomed.
Ray: When he was first breaking out last yr, I wasn’t buying in bc he was still allowing a ton of HRs (2.0 through 15 starts). He had a 1.2 over the last 17, which is still a bit high, but palatable if he’s not walking anyone. We also saw his walk rate spike back up to 10% in September. I’m just not sure he is the 2021 guy going forward. I’m playing it cautiously with him.
Eovaldi: I looove Nasty Nate! I have since his Dodger days, but I think that also makes me keenly aware of his extreme volatility from both a health and performance standpoint. He just threw his 2nd most IP at age-31 and just his 3rd time over 125 IP. With so much of his success being tied to HR suppression, I just see major regression even if he does manage to have to his first back-to-back healthy seasons (I guess 2014-15 were both pretty healthy, but it doesn’t change my overall pt much).
Be careful buying high on both of these guys.
More like top 9 is a tier.
Out of Dunning (101), Hearn (127), Hudson (147), Suarez (158), Lynch (176), Wright (188) and Justin Steele (NR), which (if any) do you see as capable of having a breakout season this year? Dunning, Lynch and Wright were fairly highly touted prospects but one has been inconsistent (Wright), one was working his way back from TJ last year (Dunning) and one has only had a brief sniff of MLB (Lynch). I only ever thought of Suarez as just OK, but FanGraphs had him graded as a 50 prospect. Hudson is coming back from TJ but had a few appearances last year. Hearn is what you get back from central casting when you ask for a unicorn pitcher (6’6″, 230lbs, left handed). Steele threw a QS in his last start of the season in 2021, so there’s that. Some young, interesting arms (to me anyway).
Out of that group I have to go dunning. Limiting BB and 50%GB% plus a possible IP cap closer to 160-170 this year. I don’t expect any of these guys to have a huge jump though but Dunning I think could finish top ~50
Dunning for me too. Top prospect returning to health.
I’ll join the Dunning crowd w/that group, but of course that’s also why he’s ranked higher.
Hearn has the measurables you dream of like you said & while not a baby, is still young (entering age-27 season) enough to develop a good bit. I also love that park for pitchers.
Hudson has that spicy GB rate that definitely fosters at least *some* interest.
Suarez hit my radar last summer, particularly in September as a streamer. Has a GB foundation, age on his side (age-24 season), and a SwStr that suggests more Ks could be coming (11% and a shorthand for K rates is 2-2.5x their SwStr). I already had a star next to him for my 50rd draft & holds but I’m moving him a bit just upon further investigation.
I will also say the globs get HUGE past, like, SP 90-95. There’s not a TONNN of difference between say Reid Detmers at 95 and Chris Paddack at 138, definitely not as much as 40+ spots would normally indicate. That isn’t to cop out on my rankings and suggest they’re all the same bc they’re not and I obviously put thought into slotting these guys in an order I like, but sometimes the little number next to their names hurts more than it helps in assessing the pitchers.
Lynch-Wright-Steele are kinda blank slates right now for me. No joke, Steele is literally 201 but I just decided to do a top 200 instead of listing all 213 I had. I haven’t done a deep-dive on every pitcher in the rankings yet, though I definitely will as the offseason wears on and those 3 are just guys I kinda slotted into the list w/out a ton of extra consideration about where they are right now.
(1) I’m struck how you placed Urquidy just behind Manoah in your rankings when it seems to me Alex has a much higher ceiling in 2022 than does Jose. And I like Urquidy — as long as he is healthy, and he has had some injury issues, he’s a solid 3rd or 4th starter in a deep fantasy league, but his stuff has limited k-ability and I think his advanced stats suggest he was quite lucky with BABIP. Steamer projects a substantially better season for Monoah, as do I — a strong 2nd starter and playing for a team whose offensive support will mean wins.
(2) Interesting high ceiling but injury risk choices in Sale and Verlander, especially given their ages.
Manoah has FA and SL; he needs a third pitch. Until resolved there will be less faith in production.
Verlander yes he won’t be 100% normal until post-all-start; Sale is post-22 Months from Surgery (all TJ issues should be over – return him to regular injury patterns for pitchers) and his stuff (outside CH) looked solid.
I’m a huge Urq fan and definitely believe we’ve yet to see his best work. There is upside in his K% rate with a strong SwStr% and deep arsenal. But we haven’t *seen* it yet w/the Ks and the HRs have been a persistent issue thus far (1.4). We still haven’t seen him unleashed with last year’s 20 starts being a career high.
I’m also a huge fan of Manoah but maybe I’m being too cautious w/his regression to make sure I’m not caping too hard for a pitcher I really believe in. He has just 20 MLB starts w/a platoon issue due to his limited arsenal and he resides in the toughest division in baseball. I feel like we could see some 2nd yr regression (aka the sophomore slump) that many aren’t accounting for bc his overall future is still very bright.
I’m going to lower Urq a few spots (to 42), but Manoah is staying put. If Manoah is an outlier who is just a beast from the jump and he builds upon his ’21, I’m willing to be wrong. I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m not ready to dive in and draft him as a top-30 SP.
I saw enough from Sale last year to feel he’s back so I went high w/him and Verlander, while old, certainly looks like a unicorn and he will be 16 mos. removed from TJ when Spring Training starts. Obviously if he has issues in Spring and doesn’t look right, I’ll move him accordingly and I don’t have to draft him at SP21 in the winter drafts so I’m essentially planting my flag that he will be good & ready to go.
Ray might seem low at #27 after a CY Young season but the 90.1 LOB % in 2021 stands out despite the career low BB/9 rate of 2.42. I suspect that played into the lower than expected ranking.
Definitely part of it, too. This is just SUCH a stark outlier that I’m playing it cautiously w/him going into ’22.
There could almost be two sets of rankings, one for established players and the other for newer ones. How do we compare (eg) Shane McClanahan (24) vs Charlie Morton (26)?
I like to draft a mix of solid veterans and younger players with a strong but limited track record and tons of upside–I wouldn’t draft the first 5 SP available if they were all McClanahan or Manoah (and I also wouldn’t draft 5 Charlie Mortons).
The point isn’t to compare, it’s to predict which player will do better in fantasy stats next year.
I respect your fantasy insight, but two jump out —
How could you rank talented-but-innings-challenged McClanahan ahead of Morton or Ray, not to mention Manoah and Cease?
And why would you rank inconsistent, fringy-Tiger-bound, SP 2 or 3-type Eduardo Rodriguez ahead of contender-rostered Manoah, Valdez or Eovaldi ?
Don’t forget Morton is 38 years old. I would take McClanahan over Morton every day.
Though reports have been good, we have to wonder about Morton’s recovery from injury, especially given his age.
montreal nails a key reason w/the health. and yes I did rank 39 yr old Verlander at 21, but he isn’t *recently* injured like Morton and has less an injury-riddled track record. I’m also not sold McClanahan will be all that innings-challenged. After 123.3 last yr, they don’t really need to go crazy to get him qualified (162+ IP) so while TB certainly isn’t shy about keeping the reins on young arms, I don’t think they do it needlessly.
They only have 10 qualified IP counts since 2015 (17 tms have as many or more), but 5 of them went to 25-26 year olds. I could see 25-year-old McClanahan logging 165 IP of great work. Deeper arsenal and better control than Manoah, better command & control than Cease, and it’s really just the age factor w/Morton (and they’re so close that you can go personal preference there anyway).
I promise it isn’t just homerism w/ERod as I’ve been a detractor in the past, but he changed a big part of why I’ve been down on him: his situation. He’s out of that park & division for a much better setup. Just taking the ERod we know and plopping him into Comerica and AL Central is enough to intrigue me, let alone if he actually improves, too.
ERod over Eovaldi is super easy due to Eovaldi’s awful health history and inconsistent results. Manoah I’ve discussed in some detail in other comments so I’ll suggest a Ctrl-F for “Manoah” for some further insight and it’ll likely cover why I view ERod more favorably. Love Valdez’s GB foundation, but he comes up short in K% v. ERod and as a 2-pitch guy, I just think there’s a little less to bet on w/him.
Megill at 82 absolutely jumps off the page. I think the expectation is that he starts the season in AAA. Can you expound on him?
Megill is slated to be in the rotation. He is too strong to not be in the Majors. And his underlying numbers are terrific. I would easily take him at 82 or better.
I feel like he has a good shot at the 5th spot, but even if not and he’s first man up from AAA, he can still be the 82nd best SP w/4.5-5 mos. For reference, Smyly was SP82 on the Razzball Player Rater this past season.
Some impressive core skills in his 90 IP of work has me intrigued. There are kinks to iron out (platoon issue and arsenal depth… the latter can obv help the former, too), but I’ve got a little green arrow next to him and he’s a late-round target for me.
My interest was further solidified when I saw this great JollyOlive vid about him that does a great job explaining the reasons for interest in the 26 yr old righty.
I’d move Nick Martinez up about 30 spots. The reports of the stuff upticking overseas is huge. It’s not just the results in his last year overseas. I also think he’s well ahead of weathers in pecking order.
Idk what i would do with paddack on rankings, in theory he should be in 90-110 range if he’s healthy but lot of signs suggest there is far more risk than padres have publicly admitted. He has a partially torn ucl and is trying plasma therapy which is generally a last gasp effort to try to avoid TJ. All i know is i won’t have any paddack shares
Will have further thoughts on other guys after some sleep
Same was said about Lindblom’s overseas stuff, a burn I suffered.
Martinez is on my to-do list of pitchers to dive deeper into.
I, too, bought into Lindblom, but I don’t feel super-burned by that. He was never expensive and the skills were there in ’20, but some small sample noise ate him up. ’21 was a bust, but again, not expensive and easy to move on from pretty early on.
Lindblom’s lack of truly panning out won’t push me off Martinez. I’ll def be taking a closer look at Martinez in the coming weeks.
I always appreciate your work, but I have to object to Alex Wood at #86. I get the health concern, but he was pretty good in 2021. He and Logan Webb were the only two pitchers with more than 130 IP with a K-BB > 19% and a GB rate > 50%. His 3.60 SIERA was 14th among pitchers with at least 130 IP. And he ended the season healthy.
86Th is a #3 starter. Doesnt that sound about right?
Steamer has him as the 35th starter, which seems about right to me, even if a bit high. I think he’s more of a #2 starter when healthy. But health maybe drops him to a 3.
I’ll grant a jump for sure, but no shot I’m coming close to 35. I jumped him right ahead of the other oft-injured Alex… Cobb. I find it curious that Steamer gave him 164 IP, more than he’s had every year since 2015. When healthy, he’s a G, but coming into a season, I can’t project that I’m getting more than ~135-140 IP out of Wood. 86 was too low, though, good call!
Matz and Hudson are pretty similar pitchers, who don’t get a ton of K’s but get a lot of grounders and will rely on the excellent St. Louis defense to likely post decent ERAs and WHIP, so why are they ranked so far apart? Yeah, Hudson is coming off TJS, but he did actually make it back before the end of last season and has otherwise shown good health in his career (not to mention how much younger he is), so that can’t explain the entire difference between them.
This is more of an issue of how highly you’ve ranked Matz. I’d pick both Wainwright and Mikolas to have a better year than both Matz and Hudson.
Similar but not the same. Obviously you mentioned – but kinda glossed over – the biggest reason for their split, but there’s also the fact that Matz has much better control (7% to 11% BB). And while they have similar SwStr rates, Matz has maintained a 4-pt better K% at 22%.
I will lower Matz bc mid-50s is too high, but still prefer him to Hudson by quite a bit. Hudson only has about 25-30 IP so I’m not sure he’ll be 100% off rip to start ’22. We’ve also only seen just the one full yr from Hudson. Totally agree that both will enjoy that defense quite a bit, though, so I’m open to rostering either (or other StL SPs) at their prices.
Have a huge affinity for Waino based on his presence on my Main Event winner (as a waiver pick up!), but I’m just not sure I want to dive back in on a 40-yr old who is so reliant upon his defense. He’s still regularly in the top 200 (ADP of 182) and while that is hardly egregious, there are still SOOOO many names going after him that I prefer by quite a bit. Kershaw, Urquidy, Alex Wood, Clevinger, Joe Ryan, Thor, Tony Disco, John Means Business, Skubal, etc… some have their very own issues of concern, but none that supersede mine tied to Waino.
The ranking definitely doesn’t scream as much, but I will say I’m in on Mikolas as a dart throw this year, espec. in my 50-round Draft & Holds!
Thanks for the great rankings!
You seem to be much lower than a couple of your counterparts (Gaut, Mason) on a few guys, any insights?
Bassitt 64 vs. 33/23
Alex Wood 86 vs. 60/64
Rodon 52 vs. 22/39 (assuming injury concern)
Nestor Cortes 97 vs. 56/77
Cheers and thanks
Yeah rodon being right next to matz seems weird
Do a Ctrl-F on Matz to find my response to Lanidrac re: the Cards and Matz. I’ve lowered him a solid bit for the next set of rankings.
I’m a bit of a Bassitt Hound in that I really like him and believe he is a legitimately solid SP, but I can’t get him up there that high. He maxed out on K% this year for what his SwStr offers so I’m definitely projected him back toward his career mark of 21-22%. That will have a trickle impact on his ratios, too, so I look toward his 2019 as a starting point for me. Of course a 2019 season or something near it is better than SP63 so I’m moving him up. I still won’t be as high as my colleagues, but muuuuch closer at SP45.
Do a Ctrl-F on Wood for a detailed look into Alex Wood. I’ve moved him up a good bit. Still lower than Nick & Justin, but he needed to be moved up!
Definitely history driving the Rodon ranking plus not knowing where he’s pitching yet. FAs in general get ranked a bit lower due to the uncertainty of their future. So almost no matter where he lands, he’ll be inside the top 50. But again, that’s a far cry from Nick & Justin. I just can’t pencil him in for more than 120 IP right now. Even his breakout year included a stunted 2H (1 start over 5 IP, only 9 starts total, velo dipped down the stretch). Just gotta be careful not to buy TOO high here. Can’t pay his top40 SP draft cost.
My Cortes rank is outdated. Thought I transferred my latest updated, but his is an old ranking. That said I’m still well behind the boys. I like him, but I’ve got him at SP86 and I have a hard time pushing him much higher, especially until we know that he’s locked in the rotation.
I have little faith in Cole next season being an ace. Hope I am wrong but he looked anything but dominant down the stretch.
You’d have to put quite a bit of stock into a whopping 3 starts to truly feel that way. He had a 4.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in the 2H w/the aforementioned 3 duds: 5.3 IP/7 ER, 5.7 IP/7 ER, and 6 IP/5 ER, a loss at BOS that went 5 IP/3 ER but still had 8 Ks, a start that wasn’t good but also only went 3.7 IP and didn’t kill anyone’s line (2 ER, 7 base runners, 2 Ks), and then 7 stone cold gems.
Some thing it’s the crackdown that “got” him which adds 4 more starts to our sample – 2 gems, 2 duds. What about the skills, though?
Since the crackdown: 32% K, 8% BB. I’m still betting on those skills all day.
Asa Lacy is so far beyond being close to major league ready, his inclusion on this list is bizarre
Came here to say the same thing. The guy is so far from the Majors based on where he pitched last season and it’s comical to look at FG’s prospect blurb on him commanding his control and he ended up sporting a BB/9 over 7 last year in 50 innings.
I almost feel like Paul meant someone else and tagged Lacy accidentally.
Thanks Paul. A very happy new year list. By the way, how could x be above y when we should all just get z?
Happy New Year and I totally agree!!!!!
Corbin 164 and Fedde 169? I think those are to close. I have way more confidence Corbin rebounds than that. Fedde should be moved to the bullpen soon for all our sakes.
Can you sell me on Corbin? It’s now 237.3 uninspiring IP of work where he has just been WAY too hittable.
1 marlin at 8, 3 marlins in the top 30, and 7 in the top 150. The Marlins are very deep!
Well, they will get 5 turns against the Nats and 5 vs the Phils so that’s a good start. Plus I don’t think even with all the signings the Mets even scare anyone offensively.
And they’ve got more on the way!!
Sporer’s Ryu = 2021 fluke
Everyone else’s Ryu = that’s who he is now
Thumbs up for Sporer’s take, down for Everyone else
Yeah it was a weird year where his worst days were REALLY bad (5 starts of 5+ ER), but he was mostly healthy and I think there’s been a distrust of his success over the years so when given a chance to embrace the skepticism on him, the market has done just that. I see a good bit of stock in Ryu for my teams because he is priced to buy (72nd P off the board which includes RPs – https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball)
Through till the 3rd of August, Ryu put up a 3.22 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 11 wins in 21 starts. His final 10 starts we know were a disaster. There isn’t direct evidence to support why his stuff failed. But in September we know he was dealing with a stiff arm and a neck strain. There may have been a mechanical flaw due to fatigue or an unknown injury that contributed to his blow-up in August.
This is why I like the discounts and likely will try to buy in if I can get him at a price point that works in my auction.
I know health is a concern but I was surprised not to see Dinelson Lamet on the list.
He looks like he’ll either be hurt or in the bullpen. Not much chance he gets a substantial number of starts .
Yeah it’s entirely due to me seeing him as a reliever. If he is slotted into the rotation this spring, I’ll adjust.
In a league that’s cracking down hard on foreign substances, is Cole even an above-replacement-level starter? I feel like the best that can be expected is a bunch of innings with slightly below-average K and ERA numbers. Having a hard time seeing him being a better fantasy option than, say, Kyle Hendricks in 2022.
You know this is public, right? People can see you saying this. 😂😂😂
Any hope for Keller and or Irvin?…got em both as throw ins in dynasty last year
Brad or Mitch?
As for Irvin – assuming Cole – WYSIWYG and he showed the upside this skillset can net this year.
What’s the thinking behind not ranking Trevor Bauer at all? The whole industry is ignoring him but I have a feeling he is going to want to pitch in 2022. So is the thinking behind not ranking him that he will be suspended by MLB for 2022? In jail? Blackballed? Or is it just a “he didn’t pitch the second half of 2021, maybe if I just ignore him he will go away” hope?
For me, it’s like why the throw the dart w/0 info. I think he’s the ultimate “to each their own” player in terms of drafting him. There will be markedly different feelings on drafting him, way different than on a standard player projected for a full season, so I’m punting right now and I’ll assess as we get info. I’m personally not drafting him.
6 Brewers in the top 99.
Buy low on Nick Piveta….eye test tells me has the stuff and competitiveness to make a significant jump forward.
Luis Garcia is surprisingly low here