Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts! Read the rest of this entry »

1/15/23

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Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts! Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the transcript from my chat today:
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A new year is upon us and this is often a time we make resolutions to improve ourselves and our lives for the upcoming year. Often these are forgotten or left unfulfilled, but I think they represent our hopes, dreams, and ambitions. At worst we are acknowledging what we need or want to change, which is an admirable exercise. With that said, here are my Fantasy Baseball New Year’s Resolutions for 2023!

1. Play in and cater to different kinds of leagues. 

I think too often the industry writers and podcasters focus too much on their favorite types of leagues or what are the easier formats to cater to in spite of what is popular or lacking analysis. I play in mostly 15-team NFBC leagues which are rotisserie format leagues. I love their format and the competition and I encourage you to try them out if you are looking for some of the best competition in the game. However, the majority of people play in shallower leagues (10-12 team leagues) and in points leagues. One of the biggest changes I am planning on making for 2023 is that I will play in those types of leagues and I will try and cater more of my content to that. That doesn’t mean I will stop playing in more competitive, deeper leagues, but I will definitely shift some of my focus to other formats. I joined an Ottoneu league recently and am excited to dig into that format as well. I will be setting up some Sleeper and the Bust listener leagues through our patreon for points leagues, best ball leagues, keeper and dynasty leagues as well.  

2. Stay Risk Averse

This is one that I started doing in recent years and want to just continue to do. In the past, I was very open to picking players that were high risk, but also high reward. I think one of the big mistakes people make is not to factor in potential downside on players and overrate upside. It is fun to take gambles, but I want them to be more calculated and have less draft cost attached to them. 

3. Trust Myself

I consume a lot of content from people in the industry. I think one of the strongest parts of my prep is being willing to disseminate information from a multitude of sources. However, I have too often allowed other’s opinions to overrule my own. In 2023, I am trying to change that. As a part of that change, I am working on doing my own projections as opposed to relying on projections from other sources. This will allow myself to stay more true to my thoughts, research and opinions. This doesn’t mean that I won’t listen to others, but I will be less likely to be influenced by group think. 

4. Manage my FAAB better

If you read my Apology Tour series, then you saw how bad my 2022 season was for a multitude of reasons. However, I definitely struggled with my in-season management. Part of my issues with FAAB was being overly aggressive with massive bids early. I was subscribing to a theory that by getting the better players early, I would accumulate more stats with getting them later. While I still think that is mostly right, by overspending on them, I hamstrung myself later on when I had a better idea of what my teams needed. I think it is good to be aggressive early on, but in a more calculated manner by not spending as much per player. 

5. Have more fun

Fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. While it is still fun for me, it has understandably become less fun for me as I have literally turned it into a job. That needs to change if I want to continue to last in the industry. Finding ways to make it more fun is a necessity for me. Part of that is finding more fun people to play with. Playing in high stakes leagues offers a different type of fun, but also finding leagues with friends or friendly people just makes the work that goes into the game more entertaining. My favorite days of the year are the draft days I do live with friends. I want to do more of those. If you aren’t having fun, then what is the point? 

6. Schedule myself

A friend once told me that “Procrastination is like masturbation. It seems great until you realize you are just screwing yourself.” I am awful at time management. What has worked for me though is rigid scheduling. Whether it is writing, podcasting, drafts, FAAB, or anything else, if I don’t have a rigid schedule for myself, I struggle with following through. I am planning on calendaring and scheduling myself for everything fantasy related and life related. I hope it will make me much more productive. 

7. Stop watching live standings

I am guilty of watching the standings intensely. I am the guy that is checking where my team is after every at bat or inning pitched. It soaks up a lot of time and distracts me from my everyday life. Once lineups are set and games have begun, I am going to not watch the live scoring constantly. I will enjoy the games and my life as opposed to worrying about whether that home run just killed me or helped me. 

8. Grow my content

I have become a bit stagnant in my content. There are so many other things I want to try and do. Scheduling will definitely help me in allowing me to have more time, but I also want to learn how to do things that involve video and using different social media. I want to keep growing as an analyst and content provider. 

9. Don’t be so singularly focused

I love fantasy baseball, but it is not the only interest I have. I spend countless hours on reading, writing, podcasting, listening, and research on fantasy, but I should be doing more outside of fantasy. I love history and politics and have been trying to get physically and emotionally healthier, but I don’t spend the time on those things because I do so much for fantasy and struggle with my time management. I need to make sure I make the time for my other interests. 

10. Remember what is really important

While this is last on the list, it is the most important thing. Fantasy is a huge part of my life, but it is not the most important thing. In order to advance in the fantasy industry, I have sacrificed a lot of things, but most importantly, I have taken time away from my wife and children in order to do everything I do. That must change in 2023. I still plan on delivering a lot of content, but they come first and I don’t want my chasing my dream to be the reason I miss out on the things that truly matter. My wife and kids don’t care if I win a league or have a great podcast. They want me to be there when life happens and I need to make that the biggest priority. 

What are your resolutions for 2023?

Here is the transcript from today’s chat!

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the transcript from today’s chat!
Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Nolan Arenado (+8.29)- I think the safety that Arenado offers has a lot to do with his value and rising ADP. While many expected him to fall off after leaving Colorado, he has proven to be a workhorse that is good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI. I think the average returns back to the .260 area, but that is fine because the floor is so safe. 

Alex Bregman (+7.54)- After a slow start to the season, Bregman was fantastic from August on. He hit .290/.394/.513 with 10 home runs in that time frame, making amazing zone contact and hitting the ball extremely hard to the pull side. He hasn’t put together a full season of great work since 2019, but the ability is clearly still there. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Jose Miranda (+18.5)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Josh Rojas (-11.95)- Rojas’ drop has a lot to do with the perceived risk in playing time. Rojas was losing time in the second half before injuries gave him greater opportunities. The Diamondbacks have been rumored to be in on a number of infielders, but it sounds like they are more interested in a shortstop than a third baseman. Rojas has speed upside and I still think that there is more in the bat overall. However, his defensive issues really holds him back and there is a ton of risk here. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Jung (+10.4)- Jung is going to be a popular player especially if he has a big spring training. Unlike other prospects, I think he has a legit shot at being an everyday player on Opening Day. There is power which was on display when he hit five home runs in 26 games at the Majors. While he showed more swing and miss, he has shown good contact skills previously in the minors. I am very interested in Jung as a guy that has a clear road to a great role in an improving offense. 

Jordan Walker (+22.39)- It is interesting to see Walker rising so fast. The talent is not really in question, but where is he playing? He clearly is blocked by Arenado at third and while he should be able to transition to the outfield, it is not like the Cardinals are devoid of options there either. He has never played at AAA, so I would expect him to start the year there, but he could force himself up pretty quickly if he dominates there like he has everywhere else. 

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (+13.58)- See the article in this series on shortstops.  

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-28.84)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-19.5)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Others of Note

Justin Turner (-25.28)- Turner is dropping because he is not signed yet and he had a down year in 2022. However, he actually rebounded late in the season, hitting .340/412/.514 with seven home runs and two stolen bases from July 1 on. I still believe he ends up back in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and if he does, he is a pretty good bet to return value at his cost. 

Patrick Wisdom (-49.07)- Wisdom swings. Wisdom swings hard. Wisdom strikes out. Wisdom hits home runs. That is pretty much the scouting report for Patrick Wisdom. Unfortunately for him, with the Cubs adding players (and they could add more) he is likely a bench bat at this point which hurts his value. That being said, there is cheap power and so there is value in draft champions. 

Brian Anderson (+53.99)- Why is Anderson rising when he doesn’t even have a team after being non-tendered? Sometimes things don’t make sense. Even if he does latch on somewhere, I don’t think he has a lot of value unless he has a full time role.