Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 30th, 2023

Justin Mason: Will start once we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing 30 team preview podcasts in 30 days on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Greg: I have a lot of MIF depth and nothing at 1B. Would you be OK trading Witt for Vlad or Alonso in that situation?

Justin Mason: I would do that for Vlad Guerrero Jr, but not for Pete Alonso straight up. If I could get a sweetener for Alonso, I would consider trading Bobby Witt Jr. for him.

Ed: In a 12 team 5×5 auction league with 7 keepers, would you rather keep Nimmo for $1 or Altuve for $21?

Justin Mason: I have Brandon Nimmo as a $2 player in that format and Jose Altuve as a $19 in that format. So I would lean Nimmo there for the savings.

Dr. J: Why is Reid Detmers ranked so much lower than Hunter Greene/Nick Lodolo considering the way he ended the year?

Justin Mason: I think people see the upside on Greene and Lodolo as so much higher. That being said, I think that is a mistake. Detmers was really good down the stretch and plays on a much better team. I think the gap is much smaller than the ADP suggests.

Damian: Is Edward olivares this year’s Cedric Mullins? Or is it friedl?

Justin Mason: When I do my “This Year’s Cedric Mullins” article, they will both be on the list, but I think that TJ Freidl has the advantage personally.

Mike: Jason, thoughts on CJ Abrams in a 10-team league?  I have Witt as a keeper, but thinking about playing him at 3B, and Abrams at SS – thx

Justin Mason: I like Abrams, a lot. I think the fantasy industry buries prospects that don’t pan out in their initial go around and that is happening to Abrams. In a 10-team league he is very borderline, but since it is a keeper league, I would do it.

Al: Do you think Duran will indeed close for the Twins this year?  Frustrating not knowing going into the season, but he’s valuable regardless right???

Justin Mason: Jhoan Duran is definitely valuable in most formats even if he isn’t the full closer, which I don’t think he is. The Twins like to use him in the most high leverage spot and that will often not be the ninth inning. I still like him a lot, but I think he shares that role with Jorge Lopez.

Jimmy: Thoughts on a couple SP coming off injuries – Glasnow & D.May?  Solid grouping if you also add a legit #1 out of the draft?

Justin Mason: I pretty much never draft guys in their first full year after TJ. Tyler Glasnow has only thrown 100+ innings once in his career at the Major League level and it was back in 2018. What makes us think he is going to do it a year after throwing 6? Dustin May is a little more interesting because he threw more innings last year and is cheaper, but he is still going around guys that have a way safer floor and a similar ceiling. I am out on both

Can’t Quit Buxton: Is this the year we get a fully healthy B.Buxton?  I can’t quit this guy, and even if he’s not fully healthy I want to have him on my squad when he performs at his very capable MVP level

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is any reason to think he will at this point. Maybe we get the dream season at some point, but I just don’t know if or when it will happen. That being said, in leagues with a lot of IL spots that aren’t super deep, I would take the gamble because the upside is so immense.

Justin Mason: Need more questions…

Rick: Am I crazy for thinking that Jose Miranda could be really good, especially at a weak 3B this year? Like .290 with 25 HR?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you are. He has a very good hit tool and should play every day. I think .290 with 25 bombs is definitely in the range of outcomes.

Catcher Duo: Does it make any sense to hang on to MJ Melendez as a keeper if I already have Varsho as a cheap keep (and one more year of catching eligibility)?  My thought is swap out the two next year, or at least slide Melendez into my catching keep spot?

Justin Mason: I think it makes sense for the long term. I think it is really unlikely for Varsho to retain catching eligibility for 2024.

Dan: In a keeper H2H points league with one catcher, five OF rosters, who is a better keeper? Daulton Varsho (C eligible) ro Seiya Suzuki? Same price for both players.

Justin Mason: I think Varsho is the right answer but I am really big on Seiya Suzuki this year so it is a lot closer than most would think.

Damian: Who do you think closes for angels? My money is on estevez.

Justin Mason: I think Carlos Estevez is the right answer.

Rick: Thanks for answering my question! BTW — I think if your question queue is light it might be because I’m not seeing this chat on the FG home page (so you’re only getting folks who came in from socials). Or maybe I’ll just seize the opportunity to ask more questions. Appreciate everything you do!

Justin Mason: I appreciate the heads up! I just messaged the overlords. I guess more questions for just my twitter followers lol

Minor Leagues: Would you hang on to Luciano in a deep keeper league?  He seemed to lose some of his luster after last season.  I was burnt on trusting Kelenic, so I’m trying to avoid another waiting game with no payoff

Justin Mason: I think I am still holding on to Marco Luciano for right now, but I definitely am worried. I am also not giving up on Jarred Kelenic so maybe I am just a sucker.

Damian: Trade question, dynasty roto, ohtani hitter or Logan webb Elly de la Cruz and Cedric Mullins?

Justin Mason: Give me the trio there. If it was Shohei Ohtani with both pitcher and hitter eligibility, then I think it would be a much more difficult question, especially in a daily moves league.

Big Tex: I have Leiter stashed in my minors.  He seemed to take a step back last season, thoughts on him performing up to his draft day status?

Justin Mason: I think this is where you get the phrase, “There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect” #TINSTAPP. Pitching prospects are especially hard to predict in terms of their development. I don’t know that he is a top 200 fantasy prospect at this point.

Justin Mason: Get your questions in…

Justin Mason: Well, I am out of questions for right now, so I guess this is a time to remind people to hit that follow button on my social medias. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing 30 team preview podcasts in 30 days on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

M. White: Keep your damn, dirty hands off Margot!

Justin Mason: LOL!!! M

Justin Mason: I’m sorry, but Rotowear Models have a hard time fighting off the ladies

Gawdoffal: From a pure ratios or talent standpoint – ERA/WHIP/K9 – where does Fairbanks rank among RPs over the next 2-3 years?

Justin Mason: I think he is probably top 20, but role, team and health make him a risky fantasy option.

Guest: I notice that you ranked Dylan Carlson below such luminaries as Jose Azocar, Cal Mitchell, and Bryan De La Cruz. Squint and I can see him being behind De La Cruz, but the others? Seems to me that Carlson’s being the Cards’ best defensive outfielder gives him at very least the opportunity to amass counting stats, whereas the others have a much less clear path to at bats. I ask because I own all but De La Cruz in a keeper league and wonder if you would advise me to drop or trade Carlson and keep the others.

Justin Mason: I would absolutely trade Carlson if I could in a league. I think he lacks the power to be a real fantasy force and I worry that he might not even make the team this year. I am very intrigued on De La Cruz. It sounds like they want to give him a real opportunity, so I would lean him over Carlson pretty easily. If you want more Carlson context, go listen to the Cardinals preview I did with Matt Thompson on the FWFB podcast. Episode 761

Bruce: What should my expectations be for Harper in 2023 (I assume 2024+ is gravy)?  Have him in an OBP keep forever league and I don’t know if I can stomach the short term hit for the long term upside.

Justin Mason: I think you have to find a way to keep Bryce Harper in that format. He will likely miss half the year, but he is a monster in OBP and should be fine once he returns.

SushiRoll: where do you have imports Yoshida and Senga this year in drafts? projections really loves Yoshida

Justin Mason: I think both are really hard to project. I am higher on Yoshida, but I have him projected as a slightly worse version of Verdugo. I think Senga will be good, but I worry about his adjustment to MLB in his first season. I think I will likely miss out for the most part this season and then readjust once I get to see them play this year.

Deathclaw: Spencer Torkelson or Vaughn Grissom in a a keep forever standard 12 teamer?

Justin Mason: In a keep forever, I think you have to go Torkelson and hope he becomes the stud everyone thought he would.

Deathclaw: Can you see Yelich having any higher of a ceiling than what he’s shown the last few years?

Justin Mason: I think it is unlikely for Christian Yelich, but I do think it is possible. Especially in the stolen base department. Maybe he never hits 30 home runs again, but I could see with the new base running advantages this year, him running a little wild on the bases.

Slapshot: Who do you like more as a back end keeper (we keep 16) at shortstop: Amed Rosario or Nico Hoerner (Hoerner is only eligible at SS in this league)?

Justin Mason: I like Amed Rosario more but I do also like Nico Hoerner.

Rick: In a dynasty league, a rebuilding owner is dangling one year of Trout for an elite prospect (who could theoretically be kept forever). How elite of a guy would you/should I offer?

Justin Mason: Maybe top 50, but not top 10.

Gawdoffal: Odds Tatis has 5+ GS and/or 10+ GP at SS this season?  REALLY hope he gains eligibility.

Justin Mason: I think that is pretty low with Bogaerts in town.

Guest: What is your current outlook on TORKELSON?  Thanks,

Justin Mason: I think Spencer Torkelson will be fine personally. 2022 was a disaster in both the minors and majors, but he showed really good power and contact skills previously in the minors. I think maybe he just got too aggressive in the Majors last season and it got in his head. Ultimately, I think he will be very good. Nice buy low opportunity

DSalinger StanAccount: When can Danielle appear on the Sleeper and the Bust? I think having her would be a fresh take and definitely would keep Paul and yourself in line

Justin Mason: She has been on before! Her and Jen came on during the pandemic shutdown and we did a draft of favorite TV shows of all time. I don’t know that she really wants to come on again, but I can definitely ask.

Kevin: I am having a tough time in my 6×6 keeper league deciding between Fried (5th), Gausman (5th), or May (19th). I really love the upside of May, the consistency of Fried, and then the normalization of Gausman. Curious if you have any insights?

Justin Mason: I have Max Fried right above Kevin Gausman in my ranks this year. I love his safety. If you are in a shallow league (10-teams) then I might go Gausman because the upside is better, but anything deeper than that, I would lean Fried.

Lone Star: Gimme an off-the-cuff mean projection for ERA, WHIP and K/9 for Heaney this year.  Please…

Justin Mason: 3.46 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12 k/9. Question isn’t talent on Andrew Heaney, it is health.

Kevin: Do you see any scenario to keep De La Cruz over Winker or Hays in the 15 team 5×5 12 Keepers, no contract league?

Justin Mason: I have De La Cruz over Jesse Winker, but Hays  a bit higher. I think the upside play may be De La Cruz, so if that is what you are shooting for, that is the scenario.

Ottoneu 4×4: Keeping or cutting E Swanson and Karinchak at $3 each in Ottoneu 4×4?

Justin Mason: I think I cut both.

Justin Mason: But definitely ask Chad Young first

Deathclaw: Can you explain Arozarena over Yordan? I know it’s only one spot and Arozarena has a massive speed advantage but Yordan is such a vastly superior hitter with seemingly a league winner type of ceiling.

Justin Mason: It is not any shade on Yordan Alvarez, but Randy Arozarena was one of two players to go 20/30 last season. As much as I love Yordan, he has 0 speed and there is injury risk with his knees. I don’t think the rank should be looked as a slight against Alvarez though. It is more about how good I think Arozarena is .

Kevin: Are you worried that Vinne P will not live up to his lofty projection expectations?

Justin Mason: I think there is always risk, but the hit tool is pretty amazing, so I feel more comfortable that he does it more than other second year guys.

Deathclaw: Do you think Luis Ortiz breaks camp in the Pirates rotation?

Justin Mason: I think he definitely could, but I also think there is a real chance he gets the Roansy treatment we saw last year which makes him really hard to roster in a lot of redraft leagues.

todd: Keep 5 in a deep AL only roto with OBP and SLG instead of BA and IP as a sixth pitching category
J Rodriguez
Seager
Pasquantino
N Lowe
Rutschman
Teoscar
Correa
Tim Anderson
Glasnow

Justin Mason: J-Rod, Seager, Vinnie P, Adley, Lowe

Justin Mason: Can make the argument for Anderson of Lowe if you don’t want two 1B

Rebuilding Owner: 16 team H2H categories league, definitely in a rebuild mode. I’m 2-3 years from competing and McKenzie is drawing tons of interest. What would be your ask for him? I’m still not 100% sold as he’s not a huge K guy and the fly ball luck is crazy high

Justin Mason: I would try and get a top 30 prospect if I could. I definitely would try and trade him considering his injury history and risk.

Deathclaw: Any worries that Jazz learning a new position could affect his hitting this year?

Justin Mason: I am more worried that it could get him injured again. I think on a per plate appearance basis, he is a stud.

Deathclaw: You and Paul have Paredes buried in your rankings. If not for platoon risk would you be intrigued by his plate discipline and ability to pull homers?

Justin Mason: Absolutely! I may even bump him up a little because I think I was a bit too harsh on the playing time for him. I think whether it is injuries or the others struggling, he should find his way into the lineup more often than not.

mario mendoza: Does he shift ban knock Sandy out of Tier 1? He pitches to contact with intent to go deep in games, but not only is the shift gone, but is infielders are now worse. Would you rather have a slow Aaron Nola battle the pitch clock, or Sandy have to reach for more Ks?

Justin Mason: First, let’s remember it is not a banning of the shift, but a minimizing of it. Teams will still shift, just less drastically. Teams and pitchers will adjust, so I think a lot of the fears are overblown. Sandy Alcantara is a horse. Maybe he takes a small step back, but he is still a very good SP1.

Hans Moleman: What do you think Jazz’s odds are of getting enough time at 2B (10 games) to retain eligibility? If he moves decisively off 2nd base, how does that affect your valuation of him in a dynasty?

Justin Mason: I honestly have no idea. I think there is a chance they abandon this plan altogether at some point. So I will say there’s a 40% chance he stays at 2B. I wouldn’t worry too much about his positional eligibility in dynasty. Positions go through ebbs and flows of time. Second base won’t always be this bad.

surfdoc: Can you explain the love that FG is giving to K. Hayes thus far?  Strikes me as just a poor hitter on a poor team but who might steal a dozen bases.

Justin Mason: I think we are all chasing the upside we saw in his rookie year.

Jeff: Justin, tell me this is the year I finally win it all

Justin Mason: Jeff, this is the year!!!

Justin Mason: I appreciate y’all chatting with me! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing 30 team preview podcasts in 30 days on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!