Second Base ADP Market Report: 2/5/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Gleyber Torres (+10.35)- I think Torres is likely rising due to his safety at a position that doesn’t have a ton of safety. He should play close to every day and hit in the middle of that lineup in New York. I do wonder if the power gains we saw are lost if he isn’t getting the Aaron Judge Goldielocks balls. He is still pretty safe, but there are some concerns.  

Max Muncy (+13.04)- Muncy was a huge risk coming into 2022 and really struggled in the first part of the season. However, after the beginning of August, he was himself, hitting .247/.358/.500 with 12 home runs and 37 RBI. I am expecting him to be that for the full 2023, but I don’t want to ignore the risk with the elbow since he never actually got the surgery. I probably won’t be getting him in drafts as the price goes up. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Brandon Lowe (-14.55)- Lowe’s drop is likely due to the injury concerns around him. We haven;t had a ton of news this offseason on him which could be a bit concerning. That being said, I have been a huge fan of his for a long time and initial reports were that he is expected to be ready for Spring Training. If he is healthy, he is a steal at this current price. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Gavin Lux (+16.93)- I think Lux is gaining in the ADP in large part due to opportunity in Los Angeles. Now that I have said that, it is likely he will be dropping in the next update after news came out that he could be in a platoon. I love Lux, but I worry the Dodgers aren’t as committed to him as I would be.  

Jean Segura (+18.96)- Segura is rising after signing in Miami to be an everyday player. However, in spite of getting that every day role, it was one of the worst landing spot for him. The lineup around him isn’t good and the park is awful for his power. He is nothing more than a deep league accumulator. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Josh Rojas (-37.43)- Rojas is falling due to playing time concerns. While I am a bit concerned as well, I think it is silly to think he won’t play fairly regularly. Rojas’ bat and ability to play a number of positions (poorly) should make it back to 500 plate appearances so I am buying the dip. 

Ketel Marte (-22.02)- Years of injuries cutting his seasons short has finally caught up to Marte so it is not surprising to see his ADP drop. However, at some point he becomes a value especially in a year where we expect more guys to steal bases. Marte has always had speed but we have never seen him put it to use, but if a veteran is going to pop 20+ out of nowhere, Marte definitely could be the guy. I have been out on Marte for years, but I think I am willing to take the gamble at this price. 

Luis Arraez (-19.76)- Arraez is dropping in large part due to expected regression. I would expect it to fall further after the trade to Miami. The park is really bad for his limited power and now he is in a worse lineup than before. I want to find the next Arraez, not pay for last years. 

Trevor Story (-186.93)- Story is dropping after needing elbow surgery. He is on my “do not draft list” until we have a clear timetable for his return. 

DJ LeMahieu (-25.69)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-47.18)- It is not surprising to see Berti fall with his role being pretty unclear in spite of a big fantasy season that literally won people leagues last year. Like Arraez, I want to find the next Berti, not pay for last years. 

Others of Note

Kevin Newman (+81.28)- Newman is no longer going extremely late with his second appearance on this list after his trade to Cincinnati. Newman is in line to play a fair amount, but I don’t know that he is worth much outside of the deepest of leagues. Maybe a 10/10 guy with a .260 average. If that plays in your league, then he is worth a pick as long as the price doesn’t continue to rise. 

Nick Madrigal (-107.27)- Madrigal is plummeting after the Cubs brought in a lot of guys which now puts him on the outside looking in. He just doesn’t have enough pop to be a Major Leaguer and I think he starts the year in AAA.