Catcher ADP Market Report: 2/1/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Dalton Varsho (+11.59)- Varsho is rising up the ADP following his trade to Toronto. With his trade it is likely that he doesn’t catch moving forward, but for this season that is fine because he can rack up a ton of plate appearances in the outfield while retaining that catching eligibility for 2023. His power/speed combo is rare at the position and it would not be surprising if he is a second rounder come March. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

MJ Melendez (+11.86)- It is a little surprising for Melendez to be rising considering there hasn’t been any news that changes his role. He is another catcher that can rack up plate appearances because of his real life positional flexibility. I don’t know if there is a massive power breakout for him this year, but we could see a little more for the most part. He is a valuable accumulator at a position where there aren’t a ton of them. 

William Contreras (+18)- Contreras is rising after his trade to Milwaukee. The good news is that now that he is out of Atlanta, he should find his way to 400+ plate appearances. The bad news is that I just don’t know that we see a massive breakout because of it. I think his ADP is fine, but if it rises any more, I am probably out. 

Sean Murphy (+25.61)- Murphy is rising now that he is out of Oakland following his trade. You couldn’t ask for a better landing spot either. It is a much better park and team around him which should lead to an improved stat line in all categories outside of stolen bases. On the flip side, I don’t see him leading catchers in the Major Leagues in plate appearances again so it may not be as big of a bump as the ADP rise suggests. Even after the rise in ADP, I don’t think the price is out of line at the moment as of yet. 

Danny Jansen (+29.25)- Jansen is quickly becoming one of the favorites of draft season in the catching department and for good reason. He was electric in the second half and the Blue Jays traded away one of his main competitors for playing time in Moreno. However, I worry a little bit about Brandon Belt taking away opportunities from him as the designated hitter. He is currently my 13th ranked catcher and he is going off the board 13th, so as long as he doesn’t continue to fly up the board, I am good with the price. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jonah Heim (+17.9)- I am a little surprised to see Heim continue to rise after his complete disaster of a second half because that usually tanks a player’s ADP. Maybe people are looking at the second half BABIP and hoping that he just got unlucky. I don’t know if he is special enough where it matters enough to take the gamble on him as his price goes up. 

Gabriel Moreno (+46.16)- Moreno is rising after the trade to Arizona. The only problem with that is that he gets enough playing time with Carson Kelly on the roster to make a huge difference for fantasy in 2023. I think his long term value is great but I am not ready to buy in on him for this season. 

Christian Vazquez (+21.77)- Vazquez has been rising after signing to be the main catcher in Minnesota, but he has such a low ceiling it is a bit surprising to see the move help him a lot. He does have a nice floor so he won’t actively hurt you, but he doesn’t make much sense outside of deep 2-catcher format. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Travis d’Arnaud (-19.7)- d’Arnaud is dropping after the trade of Murphy to the Braves and for good reason. He is not not the primary catcher and has a ton of injury risk considering his history. I was already out on him this season, but the addition of Murphy put the nail in that coffin. 

Yasmani Grandal (-23.65)- Maybe I am dumb, but I just can’t quit Grandal yet. He did look washed last season, but I wonder if he was banged up for much of the season. He is also a career .299 hitter with no shift in place and while I don’t want to overrate that, it is some nice confirmation bias. The discount is so nice that I am willing to take the gamble. 

 

Others of Note

Nick Fortes (+28.12)- I really like Fortes, but I worry that the Marlins will prefer to give Stallings a lot of playing time behind the plate because of his defense. If he can find 300+ plate appearances, he could be a really nice C2, but I do worry that is kind of a big if. 

Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 (+33.98)- Bethancourt is rising after a surprise season in which he hit .252/.283/.409 with 11 home runs and five stolen bases in 333 plate appearances. I do think he regresses a little because of his plate skills. He had a 19.9% swinging strike rate, a pitiful 77.5% zone contact, and swung outside the zone 47.4% of the time. There is some pop and a bit of speed, but I just am not impressed.