Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 6th, 2023

Justin Mason: Will start once we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Pappy: If you had to guess longterm who is the better player: Gunnar Henderson or Wander Franco?

Justin Mason: Kind of depends on what you are looking for. Franco has a really high floor, but Henderson has a higher ceiling.

Nick: Do you have a date for your’s and Paul’s SP ranks?

Justin Mason: Mine is already available on the sleeper and the bust patreon, but will be available next week on the site.

PSUEds: Are we getting a Beat Justin Mason Online Championship this year?

Justin Mason: Yes! I am just waiting for it to get set up, but it will be 3pm EST on Monday Feb 20 which is President’s Day weekend. I will also be live streaming it.

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: How much are you discounting Rodon’s projections for injury concerns and home ballpark concerns?

Justin Mason: I don’t think the park hurts him as much as it would seem. He only gave up two home runs to lefties last year so the short porch is somewhat neutralized. It all comes down health for him. I have him downgraded a bit for that, but still think he is an elite option.

Matt: NL-Only Keeper Auction Strategy (260/Unlimited keepers): What do you prefer to do with players who might be below-average-performance but below-market-price? I’ve got a bunch of them and am trying to decide who to lock in and who to let go: Josh Rojas (7), Hae-Song Kim (8), Lane Thomas (5), Luis Garcia-WAS (6). They would be in addition to about 6 other bats I’m already keeping, plus 5-6 pitchers.

Justin Mason: For me it always comes down to playing/upside. Sometimes I am willing to keep guys that are a little more expensive because I know their production will great and they will cost more in draft because of inflation. That being said, all these prices are good, but I wouldn’t keep a guy like Garcia over a market value priced stud.

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: How many starts does Domingo German make?

Justin Mason: 17? So hard to tell, but with Frankie Montas hurt, I think there is a good chance German gets a good amount of starts.

CO Soutpaw: Keeper question. 12 team H2H OBP league. Is JoeRam too expensive at $58 this season ($260 budget)? Rankings still favor him as Top 3B & top 10/15 overall

Justin Mason: Yes.

Justin Mason: That is way too much of your initial budget. You can always throw him back and then try and get him back, but I can’t rationalize spending a fifth of your budget on one guy.

Peter: In a 15 team mixed roto league your thoughts on starting with Alonso and Riley despite the lack of speed? If so where would you go next?

Justin Mason: I don’t have an issue with it per se, but you just need to fill up your roster with strong avg/speed guys. Guys like Steven Kwan, Starling Marte, Nico Hoerner, and Amed Rosario should be targets later.

Guest: Most of the blog posts that rank players are based on 5×5 roto.  Any good suggestions or “Moneyball tricks” or web sites for adjusting them to a points league?

Justin Mason: Ok, so I would take your favorite projections and run them through the auction calculator or a like program. The problem with points leagues are non have the same point system so it becomes really difficult to do content on them. That being said, I am going to do points leagues ranks/dollar values based on my projections for the four major sites (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax) and it will be available on the sleeper and the bust patreon)

Yuniesky Betancourt: What part of draft and hold league strategy do you think is most often overlooked?

Justin Mason: Being risk adverse. I think people see the 50 rounds and think they can take a ton of gambles and then in August they can’t field an active lineup because of minor leaguers that never came up and injuries. The teams that do well in draft and hold leagues are the ones that lead their league (and the overall) in plate appearances and innings pitched.

Post Injury Big Deal: Better odds to have a 3+ WAR season:  Sale or Peralta?

Justin Mason: Chris Sale

Matt: Since my TGFBI Satellite is just starting (thanks for running those again!), which side do you tend to identify with: is the time allotment in a slow draft a convenience for people with scheduling conflicts, or a means to gain a competitive advantage by holding out for player news to pop up? Or something else entirely?

Justin Mason: Allotment for time and the differences in time zones and schedules. I know some people want to gain an advantage from milking the clock, but for the most part that is unnecessary.

Steve Saxual Healing: 10-teamer, daily moves, but deep bench auction/roto league. I’m one of the better budget-ers so I should have my pick of the following group for Util/CI, all $2-5 range. Do any stand out above the rest for you: J. Naylor, S. Brown, R. Tellez, and, to a lesser degree, J. Meneses?

Justin Mason: Probably Rowdy Tellez or Seth Brown. In a ten team league, I want guys that are going to play a lot. Naylor is a decent option but you have to sit him against lefties so it depends on the size of your bench.

dezre: HUGE THANKS for organizing the TGFBI. Drafting for a satellite league now…so much fun! Who ya like in that format between Xander and Dansby? Do you expect the change in either player’s environment will affect his value much? Or can we expect more of the same from both? Their underlying skills have been very consistent…

Justin Mason: Definitely prefer Dansby Swanson over Xander Bogaerts. I think Xander will be hurt a ton by the park and could end up batting like 5th or 6th once Tatis returns.

Reggie: Where do you see Kyle Lewis fitting in at Arizona ?

Justin Mason: On the IL

Foolsrushin63: Just picked up an abandoned team in an Ottoneu points league. No catchers worth keeping and few options in upcoming draft. Thoughts on differentiating between Stephenson, Moreno, Langliers, Heim, Bart, Garver?

Justin Mason: Tyler Stephenson has a ton of upside if he can stay healthy. Gabriel Moreno has long term upside but probably won’t be very valuable this season. Jonah Heim is a second tier option I like.

Guest: in a 14 team keep forever roto 6×6 my last keeper is down to bard (its a sv/hld league), Bellinger (I don’t have a cf), lux (I have gleyber but would fill my mi) or jose miranada (young upside? I have 3b & CI covered)

Justin Mason: I think it is between Cody Bellinger and Miranda. I might shoot for the massive upside of Bellinger, but Miranda is much safer and has decent upside as well.

Steve Saxual Healing: And same league, 10 team, deep bench, auction. Should comfortably be able to afford 2 of the following as my aces: Nola, Woodruff, L. Castillo, C. Javier. Are you especially Bullish or Bearish on any of them?

Justin Mason: I like all four, but I am highest on Woodruff and Nola.

NBP: Yoshida had the 2nd lowest K rate and 2nd highest BB rate in NBP.  That is insane – are you drafting him this year or is he going too soon/$$$ for your taste?

Justin Mason: I could grab a share or two, but I don’t usually draft guys coming into the league from international leagues unless I think they have game changing upside and Yoshida Masataka doesn’t appear to have that.

Reggie: Does CJ Abrahams break out this season with Washington?

Justin Mason: I think there is a break out of sorts. I think he could hit for average and steal a ton of bases.

Joey: I am struggling with my last keeper. Who would you taken between Jazz (2 keeps left), Vargas (3 keeps left) and Jordan Walker (4 keeps left)? 10 team hth with obp.

Justin Mason: It is Walker for me.

Guest: more likely bounceback this season Austin meadows or jose berrios

Justin Mason: Berrios. At least he is healthy

Colton: Justin, why do I keep talking myself more and more into Jack Suwinski? His home/road splits have been stuck in my head for weeks. I know you said you liked Bae more for the season but I’m not sure if he’s got enough thump to carve out and everyday role

Justin Mason: Suwinski is a strong side platoon power hitter. I can find that off the wire. Bae is potentially a good hit tool guy with speed. Much harder to find later.

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: Playing time for NYY’s LF-DH-3B seem like a zero sum game. Let’s assume Stanton stays relatively healthy and gets 550 PA.  How do the rest of those PAs split between Cabrera, Donaldson, Hicks, and LeMahieu?

Justin Mason: Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu will both get 500+ PAs if they are healthy. I think Aaron Hicks gets like 300 PAs and Oswaldo Peraza gets around 400.

Old Prospector: pablo

Justin Mason: Picasso? Escobar? Lopez?

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: How many PA does AJ Pollock get?  The GM says he will platoon with Kelenic in LF, but they do not really have a DH (assuming Teoscar plays RF) and Kelenic seems likely to flame out.

Justin Mason: 400?

Guest: with all the hate being piled onto tatis jr’s injury (seemingly well deserved) how nervous should a dynasty owner be with his long term outlook? where on the spectrum of try and move him after the first hot streak nervous vs reassess at the end of the year

Justin Mason: I would not move him for less than full market value. The upside is too great and he has generational talent. If I could get J-Rod, Acuna, Vlad or guys like that, I could be swayed, but I think you have to roll with him and hope for the best.

Jeff: Over/Under 20 saves for Kimbrel?

Justin Mason: Under

Danny: Can you make any sense of what is going on with Lucas Giolito?
Positives: FB velocity is constant, Barrels have stayed constant, Max EV relatively constant.
Negatives: K%-BB% down 3 years in a row, hard hit % way up, and a FIP over 4.00, Z contact up, FB spin way down (spider tack?)

Did he just get babip’ed to death last year or is there something fundamentally wrong with his pitches?

Justin Mason: I think he was tipping pitches. I also think he had poor sequencing. He definitely got a bit unlucky, but it was more about how he reacted to when he fell behind in the count. He would make bad mistakes in the zone when he fell behind allowing hitters to take advantage. I think an approach overhaul is needed and I don’t know that I can buy in on him this season given that.

Old Prospector: Pablo Lopez was unhittable to start 2022 then below average for the rest of the year. What do you expect this year? Does his final results I’d the year in total and the 3.7-3.85ish ERA most project feel appropriate for 2023?

Justin Mason: Yeah, that is about what I have him projected for this year. I also worry about the health as he usually misses big chunks of time.

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: How would you rank the following trio who seem bunched up on most projections and rankings:  Bieber-L.Castillo-Gausman?

Justin Mason: Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, Shane Beiber

Justin Mason: but it is close on all three

A.: i Have a keeper decision in a 12 team 6×6 (obp instead of average, batter k is the sixth category; normal pitching plus holds):  need to pick 2: Logan Gilbert (10th rd), Nate Lowe (16th); Jake McCarthy (16th); Brandon Woodruff (5). My other two definite keepers are Vinnie Pasquentino (16th) and Zac Gallen (16th). If I keep multiple 16th round eligible guys, I can push them down a round (if I have two 16th round keeper, one becomes a 17th). Thank you in advance.

Justin Mason: Lowe and Woodruff for me.

Nick: In a 12 team points league what side of this trade do you prefer: Tatis in the 13th and Ray in the 20th or Wander in the 18th and Rodon in the 22nd round?

Justin Mason: Tatis side

Oaktown Blues: Do you think Esteury Ruiz gets enough playing time and gets on base enough to rack up a significant SB total this season?

Justin Mason: I do think he can but I also think the average could potentially be atrocious. 30 SBs and a .220 average is in play

OF cliff: Who have you been getting a lot for your last couple of OF spots?

Justin Mason: TJ Freidl

Justin Mason: Brandon Marsh

Justin Mason: Jarred Kelenic

Justin Mason: Kyle Isbel, Leody Tavares, Edward Oliveras.

Justin Mason: Lots of options.

Kate: How would you rank these relievers in a league that uses sv+h/2: leclerc, alzolay, floro, Lange, Evan Phillips, estevez, ginkel, Brandon hughes

Justin Mason: LeClerc, Lange, Esteves, Phillips, Hughes, Floro, Alzolay, Ginkel

Jeff: $90 to spend on 16 keepers: how much should I budget for a starting 3B?

Justin Mason: Depends a lot on who is available.

Kenny Pittsburgh: NL only.  Who are your leading candidates to eventually close, but not be in the closer role on opening day?

Justin Mason: Tanner Scott in Miami, Joe Mantiply in Arizona,  Taylor Rogers in SF

Trader Bob: Obviously the Cardinals have endless folks for their OF and DH slots and 1B is blocked, but doesn’t Juan Yepez still have breakout potential? I think I’m going to have to let him go to keep Tanner Houck at the back of my dynasty list but I’m worried that with both of them PT challenged I should be keeping the bat

Justin Mason: I think I would keep Yepez here. I know there is a lot of bodies in St. Louis but that will work itself out. Houck hasn’t been healthy and that weighs a lot on me in dynasty.

Gary Maddox’s hair: You a believer in Nestor Cortes this year? Is he a keeper on a 12 team roto5x5 dynasty league over Jesus Luzardo?

Justin Mason: Yes and yes. Love the skills on Luzardo but I just don’t know how many innings we can expect given his track record.

Vince: Hi! In 10-tm, H2H Category redraft considering trading my $12.50 Marcus Semien for $19.50 Bregman or $16 Arenado.  Gunnar Henderson likely only potential hi-end 3B who will be available in upcoming auction, while likes of A Gimenez, Grissom, McNeil will be availble at 2B. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Semien is better and cheaper than both Nolan Arenado and Alex Bregman. Why would you give that value up to your competitors?

Kenny Pittsburgh: Will pitch-to-contact guys like Miles Mikolas take a step back with no shifting?

Justin Mason: I think they definitely could, but remember teams can still shift just not as drastically and pitchers will adjust as well. Im less worried about guys like Mikolas because of the defense behind him and more worried about guys like Logan Webb that have bad defenses behind him.

sporerOFranx?: Better deep dynasty league pickup: Colas or Friedl?

Justin Mason: Friedl!!!!

Gross Man: Name a player for next season for whom you have a totally gut-driven, not evidence-based at all, feeling that they’re going to have a breakout. This is not for actionable fantasy advice, just fun curiosity.

Justin Mason: Jarred Kelenic! I know that he has been awful in the Majors, but I still believe in the profile we have seen in the minors.

diadem: Which of De La Cruz, Bae or G Mitchell will produce more value this season?

Justin Mason: Garrett Mitchell, but I like all three

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: This year, who is the guy you find yourself in the heat of the moment going the extra dollar or earlier round?

Justin Mason: Randy Arozarena, JT Realmuto, Zac Gallen, and Seiya Suzuki

Guest: Thanks for hosting the chat.  What are your thoughts on Cronenworth (for a points league), is he a top 10 2b, top 5, is he more valuable than Kris Bryant?

Justin Mason: He is not and I would rather have Bryant

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: In a deep only OBP league, Kepler or Gallo?

Justin Mason: Kepler

1B: Standard 5×5 league, rank Casas, M.Vargas and Torkelson.

Justin Mason: Miguel Vargas, Triston Casas, Spencer Torkelson, but I like all three at cost.

James: If Jazz stays healthy is he a first round pick in 2024?

Justin Mason: Yes, but that is a big if

KingKwan: I have read some stories out of Cleveland that Steven Kwan is working out and specifically trying to hit the ball with more authority. Any deets that you have heard? Imagine SK with 20/20 and .300 atop the Guardians lineup. #dranktheKwan-aid

Justin Mason: As long as it doesn’t hurt the average. I want him to get a ton of plate appearances and hit for average. That is where a ton of his value comes from.

Peter: Your thoughts on Eloy or Robert staying healthy and truly breaking out?

Justin Mason: I am lower on Luis Robert than the market because of the health, but he is still primed to buy if you believe he can stay on the field. If Eloy Jimenez is playing the field, I won’t be drafting him, If he is the DH, then I am all in.

Hebrew: was the “oswaldo peraza gets 400 PAs” in the previous yankee question meant to be “oswaldo cabrera gets 400 PAs” ?

Justin Mason: Yes. My bad. I keep doing that.

Hebrew: 5×5 ottoneu – i have Alejandro Kirk ($10) and MJ Melendez ($3). Am I crazy to keep both and use Melendez as a regular OF, filling it with Kirk to get to 162 games?

Should i shop Kirk around and use Melendez as my starting C and find a replacement-level guy in the auction to fill out the position?

Justin Mason: Definitely shop them around and try and move one.

The Notorious D.A.N. Mcgrew: What rookie do you think will break out in a big way this year?

Justin Mason: Jordan Walker and Josh Jung

Justin Mason: Walker could be this year’s J-Rod or Bobby Witt

RGM: Rowdy Tellez has a career wRC+ of 104 and last year was 110.  All the projections have a 120-123.  What is leading the projections to be so much higher on him this year?

Justin Mason: No idea. I think he is similar to last year or even regresses back a little bit.

Harry: Keeper decisions in OBP/SLG league: Trout ($36), Yelich ($23)? Want to lock in power and speed stats.

Justin Mason: I think I go Yelich because of the speed.

Foolsrushin63: B. Donovan or I. Paredes for utility role in Ottoneu points league?

Justin Mason: Donovan

Tom Brady Sand Auctions: What’s your RP strategy this year? Anyone you’ll really pay up for?

Justin Mason: I tend to pay up on closers. You either pay for them at the table or in FAAB and I would rather have my faab available for other things. I have been getting a lot of Alexis Diaz and David Bednar as my second closer

Chip: Would you spend 15% of your budget on Acuna in a dynasty league?

Justin Mason: Yes

A.: Nate Eaton was a sneaky stolen base play late in the season (w/3b eligibility in yahoo last year). What is his outlook for 2023? I haven’t seen much written about him.

Justin Mason: I don;t know if there is a ton of playing time for him. If he gets to 400 plate appearances he could be a really nice bargain though.

Guest: 10 team 6×6 roto league with 5 keepers at the round drafted year 1 or considered 1st round after.  I have JRam, Burns, and Vlad for rounds 1-3. Then need to pick two between  Hoskins R8, Valdez R9, Edman R10, or Torres R14.

Justin Mason: Give me Valdez and Edman

Blooper: Is Ward going to be the primary leadoff hitter for the Angels?  Think his hot start and finish last year were legit?

Justin Mason: Definitely think he could be the leadoff guy as long as he stays healthy. I think he is legit and could be a nice value

Chucky: Need a SS that won’t cost me an arm and a leg to get me through Weeks 1-3 with the Tatis suspension. It’s a keeper league so all the top guys are kept and a few of the Volpe, Elly DLC types too. Not looking to burn an early pick on a guy that will have minimal value once Tatis returns for set and forget status.

Justin Mason: Thairo Estrada, Ezekiel Tovar, and CJ Abrams could be good guys if available.

Justin Mason: Maybe Bryson Stott too?

OF: 10-team 5×5 auction keeper league: Trout or L.Robert? What do you project for Robert?

Justin Mason: I have Trout ahead of Robert but in a 10 team league I would probably take the gamble on Robert staying healthy and being a monster

Paul: Rendon finishes as a top ___ 3B.

Justin Mason: 30

Ant: Dj lemaheiu good pick up?

Justin Mason: I think he is in deeper leagues because of positional eligibility.

Chip: Ottoneu Fangraphs Points League – Is $58 too much for Acuna? I could really use that money to spread around in a few other places.

Justin Mason: I think so.

Ant: R the dodgers a legit team still this year even after losing a bunch of players?

Justin Mason: Of course they are, but I think they are behind the Padres after this offseason. I think they are trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold and will go all in on Ohtani next season.

OF: I.Happ, over/under 20 HRs?

Justin Mason: Over

Justin Mason: That is all the time I have for today. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!