First Base ADP Market Report: 2/2/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

 

Top 100 Players Rising

Jose Abreu (+37.12)- Abreu is rising after signing in Houston which is the perfect location for him. His xHR had he played all his games in Houston last year would have been 22 because his swing can take advantage of the Crawford Boxes there. He is in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball. He is well worth the new ADP. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Anthony Rizzo (+12.92)- Rizzo is rising after resigning in New York which is one of the best possible places for him to play because of how he uses that short porch. While many of the projection systems have him regressing, I don’t know that I think the drop off will be as great as they predict if at all. He had a 91st percentile max exit velocity and is still a five category producer. I think he is a very safe option after the elite ones are gone. 

Josh Bell (+17.54)- Bell is rising after signing in Cleveland where he will hit in the middle of the lineup and play every day. I know there is a little fear of the drop off we saw after his trade to San Diego, but it is a much better place for his power this year. He is another pretty enticing fallback option. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

 

Top 300 Players Rising

None

 

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-28.48)- LeMahieu’s drop is not surprising considering he struggled power wise with the deadened ball and he dealt with injuries. However, the average should rebound some with better BABIP luck and it sounds like he is entering the season in better health. He is also triple eligible which is so valuable and leads off regularly. I am happy to take advantage of the continued price drop.

Josh Naylor (-10.97)- I think Naylor is slipping after the Guardians signed Bell. I don’t know if it is really that big of a deal. He is still going to play in a strong side platoon at first base and that is the best thing for him since he should never hit against lefties. He is viable in deeper formats. 

Matt Mervis (-39.23)- Mervis was the biggest riser the last time I did this article. So, what did the Cubs do? They signed Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini to block him from making the Opening Day roster. Let’s be honest though. Is Hosmer that big of an obstacle? Mervis should be up fairly quickly once the Cubs front office realizes Hosmer is not good at baseball. 

 

Others of Note

Spencer Torkelson (-41.87)- Torkelson had a disaster of a year, but he showed some promise in September when he rejoined the team after being demoted. The park change should help him and the rest of the Tigers offense a bit as well. There is no reason for the Tigers to not let him figure it out at the Major League level so he is a good cheap gamble. 

Jared Walsh (-109.44)- Walsh is dropping with the worry that he won’t be the same after thoracic outlet surgery. There is virtually no historical data on how it affects hitters and the amount of players the Angels brought in this offseason could be a sign they don’t believe he will be ready to go. AVOID!

Joey Votto (-135.91)- Votto is dropping with worries of his own health. Reports are that he doesn’t know when he will be ready and now the Reds are talking about Tyler Stephenson playing 140-150 games which would mean some at first base and DH. I am a bit worried Votto will miss a big chunk of the early season.