First Base ADP Market Report: 2/2/2023
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.
Top 100 Players Rising
Jose Abreu (+37.12)- Abreu is rising after signing in Houston which is the perfect location for him. His xHR had he played all his games in Houston last year would have been 22 because his swing can take advantage of the Crawford Boxes there. He is in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball. He is well worth the new ADP.
Top 100 Players Falling
None
Top 200 Players Rising
Anthony Rizzo (+12.92)- Rizzo is rising after resigning in New York which is one of the best possible places for him to play because of how he uses that short porch. While many of the projection systems have him regressing, I don’t know that I think the drop off will be as great as they predict if at all. He had a 91st percentile max exit velocity and is still a five category producer. I think he is a very safe option after the elite ones are gone.
Josh Bell (+17.54)- Bell is rising after signing in Cleveland where he will hit in the middle of the lineup and play every day. I know there is a little fear of the drop off we saw after his trade to San Diego, but it is a much better place for his power this year. He is another pretty enticing fallback option.
Top 200 Players Falling
None
Top 300 Players Rising
None
Top 300 Players Falling
DJ LeMahieu (-28.48)- LeMahieu’s drop is not surprising considering he struggled power wise with the deadened ball and he dealt with injuries. However, the average should rebound some with better BABIP luck and it sounds like he is entering the season in better health. He is also triple eligible which is so valuable and leads off regularly. I am happy to take advantage of the continued price drop.
Josh Naylor (-10.97)- I think Naylor is slipping after the Guardians signed Bell. I don’t know if it is really that big of a deal. He is still going to play in a strong side platoon at first base and that is the best thing for him since he should never hit against lefties. He is viable in deeper formats.
Matt Mervis (-39.23)- Mervis was the biggest riser the last time I did this article. So, what did the Cubs do? They signed Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini to block him from making the Opening Day roster. Let’s be honest though. Is Hosmer that big of an obstacle? Mervis should be up fairly quickly once the Cubs front office realizes Hosmer is not good at baseball.
Others of Note
Spencer Torkelson (-41.87)- Torkelson had a disaster of a year, but he showed some promise in September when he rejoined the team after being demoted. The park change should help him and the rest of the Tigers offense a bit as well. There is no reason for the Tigers to not let him figure it out at the Major League level so he is a good cheap gamble.
Jared Walsh (-109.44)- Walsh is dropping with the worry that he won’t be the same after thoracic outlet surgery. There is virtually no historical data on how it affects hitters and the amount of players the Angels brought in this offseason could be a sign they don’t believe he will be ready to go. AVOID!
Joey Votto (-135.91)- Votto is dropping with worries of his own health. Reports are that he doesn’t know when he will be ready and now the Reds are talking about Tyler Stephenson playing 140-150 games which would mean some at first base and DH. I am a bit worried Votto will miss a big chunk of the early season.
12/5/22-2/2/23 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/22-10/31/22 | 11/1/22-12/4/22 | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11.83 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | 13.13 | 12 | 0.17 |
13.16 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 1B | 15.37 | 15.73 | 2.57 |
19.3 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 22.77 | 22.45 | 3.15 |
26.84 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | 29.67 | 26.82 | -0.02 |
44.97 | Matt Olson | ATL | 1B | 41.57 | 38.55 | -6.42 |
93.06 | Jose Abreu | HOU | 1B | 127.47 | 130.18 | 37.12 |
94.21 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 1B | 92.93 | 89.91 | -4.3 |
104.1 | Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | 1B | 100.97 | 100.73 | -3.37 |
121.7 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 116.33 | 120 | -1.7 |
126.55 | C.J. Cron | COL | 1B | 112.5 | 121 | -5.55 |
136.26 | Christian Walker | ARZ | 1B | 142.07 | 132.64 | -3.62 |
140.64 | Andrew Vaughn | CWS | 1B, OF | 147.53 | 142.18 | 1.54 |
149.76 | Jose Miranda | MIN | 1B, 3B | 160.5 | 148.64 | -1.12 |
152.72 | Anthony Rizzo | NYY | 1B | 164.5 | 165.64 | 12.92 |
159.54 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B | 150.07 | 152.82 | -6.72 |
172.5 | Ty France | SEA | 1B | 162.93 | 165.18 | -7.32 |
173.19 | Rowdy Tellez | MLW | 1B | 181.03 | 176.55 | 3.36 |
181.28 | Josh Bell | CLE | 1B | 194.27 | 198.82 | 17.54 |
191.69 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B | 177.63 | 196.55 | 4.86 |
193.37 | Joey Meneses | WAS | 1B, OF | 211.6 | 188.45 | -4.92 |
193.71 | Brandon Drury | LAA | 1B, 2B, 3B | 185.5 | 192.27 | -1.44 |
205.39 | Seth Brown | OAK | 1B, OF | 208.1 | 208.36 | 2.97 |
211.12 | Luis Arraez | MIA | 1B, 2B | 193.23 | 196.82 | -14.3 |
226.52 | Josh Naylor | CLE | 1B | 204.17 | 215.55 | -10.97 |
237.37 | Triston Casas | BOS | 1B | 239.8 | 235.36 | -2.01 |
260.66 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 215.53 | 232.18 | -28.48 |
272.03 | Trey Mancini | CHC | 1B, OF | 259.23 | 270.45 | -1.58 |
277.01 | Miguel Vargas | LAD | 1B | 305.37 | 277.36 | 0.35 |
299.5 | Matt Mervis | CHC | 1B | 288.83 | 260.27 | -39.23 |
317.35 | Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 | TB | C, 1B | 384.57 | 366.82 | 49.47 |
318.23 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 1B | 280.7 | 276.36 | -41.87 |
364.36 | Wil Myers | CIN | 1B, OF | 471.63 | 457 | 92.64 |
376.39 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B, 3B | 334.2 | 335.82 | -40.57 |
415.33 | Isaac Paredes | TB | 1B, 2B, 3B | 331.43 | 317 | -98.33 |
425.62 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B | 294.97 | 316.18 | -109.44 |
483.61 | Harold Ramirez | TB | 1B, OF | 383.43 | 383.82 | -99.79 |
504.71 | Luke Voit | WAS | 1B | 310.8 | 304.91 | -199.8 |
513.73 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 364.3 | 377.82 | -135.91 |
543.92 | Brandon Belt | TOR | 1B | 491.73 | 470.91 | -73.01 |
553.58 | Garrett Cooper | MIA | 1B | 470.7 | 467.55 | -86.03 |
556.23 | Carlos Santana | PIT | 1B | 595.37 | 580.27 | 24.04 |
571.56 | Hunter Dozier | KC | 1B, 3B, OF | 484.83 | 471.55 | -100.01 |
596.27 | Eric Hosmer | CHC | 1B | 520.43 | 511.82 | -84.45 |
596.3 | Keston Hiura | MLW | 1B | 465.83 | 463.82 | -132.48 |
600.84 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | SF | 1B, OF | 535.03 | 509.36 | -91.48 |
620.65 | Ji-Man Choi | PIT | 1B | 635.7 | 558.45 | -62.2 |
623.92 | Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 1B, 3B | 548.33 | 560 | -63.92 |
626.31 | Dominic Smith | WAS | 1B | 682.1 | 617 | -9.31 |
629.58 | Kyle Manzardo | TB | 1B | 566.1 | 536.91 | -92.67 |
643.95 | Nick Pratto | KC | 1B | 485.17 | 491.82 | -152.13 |
652.39 | Connor Joe | PIT | 1B, OF | 612.73 | 617.64 | -34.75 |
674.7 | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | 1B | 475.5 | 469.55 | -205.15 |
677.54 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 1B, 2B | 562.07 | 568.45 | -109.09 |
680.98 | Jesus Aguilar | OAK | 1B | 605.9 | 575.82 | -105.16 |
687.54 | Ryan Noda | OAK | 1B | NA | NA | NA |
707.74 | Owen Miller | MLW | 1B, 2B | 692.17 | 677.73 | -30.01 |
724.73 | Harold Castro | DET | 1B, 3B | 592 | 590.36 | -134.37 |
725.61 | Miguel Sano | MIN | 1B | 594.5 | 614 | -111.61 |
735.55 | Mike Moustakas | CIN | 1B, 3B | 638.67 | 641.91 | -93.64 |
737.82 | P.J. Higgins | CHC | C, 1B | 666.8 | 638.73 | -99.09 |
743.06 | Darin Ruf 러프 | NYM | 1B, OF | 739.97 | 728.82 | -14.24 |
747.28 | Dermis Garcia | OAK | 1B | 707.17 | 706.18 | -41.1 |
747.56 | Michael Chavis | PIT | 1B | 732.07 | 741 | -6.56 |
747.75 | Franchy Cordero | BAL | 1B, OF | 743.07 | 743.82 | -3.93 |
747.8 | Donovan Solano | CIN | 1B | 719.97 | 722.82 | -24.98 |
747.83 | Alfonso Rivas | CHC | 1B | 742.57 | 728 | -19.83 |
747.91 | Jon Singleton | MLW | 1B | 742.07 | 726.64 | -21.27 |
749.76 | Lewin Diaz | BAL | 1B | 714.3 | 694.73 | -55.03 |
750.39 | Matt Duffy | LAA | 1B, 3B | 743.43 | 731 | -19.39 |
750.46 | Colin Moran | CIN | 1B | NA | NA | NA |
750.49 | Bobby Bradley | CLE | 1B | NA | NA | NA |
750.56 | Frank Schwindel | CHC | 1B | 718.3 | 737.91 | -12.65 |
750.79 | Josh VanMeter | PIT | 1B, 2B | NA | NA | NA |
750.92 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | PIT | 1B | 749.73 | NA | NA |
750.93 | Evan White | SEA | 1B | NA | NA | NA |
750.96 | Spencer Horwitz | TOR | 1B | 750.77 | 750.36 | -0.6 |
NA | Leandro Cedeno | FA | 1B | 741.9 | 733.64 | NA |
NA | Logan Porter | KC | 1B | 750.53 | NA | NA |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Good write-up, but Anthony Rizzo has not been a 5 category producer since 2019 as his BA has been low the last 3 years. Maybe a 245 average if he gets a boost with the shift eliminated . . .