First Base ADP Market Report: 2/2/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

 

Top 100 Players Rising

Jose Abreu (+37.12)- Abreu is rising after signing in Houston which is the perfect location for him. His xHR had he played all his games in Houston last year would have been 22 because his swing can take advantage of the Crawford Boxes there. He is in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball. He is well worth the new ADP. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Anthony Rizzo (+12.92)- Rizzo is rising after resigning in New York which is one of the best possible places for him to play because of how he uses that short porch. While many of the projection systems have him regressing, I don’t know that I think the drop off will be as great as they predict if at all. He had a 91st percentile max exit velocity and is still a five category producer. I think he is a very safe option after the elite ones are gone. 

Josh Bell (+17.54)- Bell is rising after signing in Cleveland where he will hit in the middle of the lineup and play every day. I know there is a little fear of the drop off we saw after his trade to San Diego, but it is a much better place for his power this year. He is another pretty enticing fallback option. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

 

Top 300 Players Rising

None

 

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-28.48)- LeMahieu’s drop is not surprising considering he struggled power wise with the deadened ball and he dealt with injuries. However, the average should rebound some with better BABIP luck and it sounds like he is entering the season in better health. He is also triple eligible which is so valuable and leads off regularly. I am happy to take advantage of the continued price drop.

Josh Naylor (-10.97)- I think Naylor is slipping after the Guardians signed Bell. I don’t know if it is really that big of a deal. He is still going to play in a strong side platoon at first base and that is the best thing for him since he should never hit against lefties. He is viable in deeper formats. 

Matt Mervis (-39.23)- Mervis was the biggest riser the last time I did this article. So, what did the Cubs do? They signed Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini to block him from making the Opening Day roster. Let’s be honest though. Is Hosmer that big of an obstacle? Mervis should be up fairly quickly once the Cubs front office realizes Hosmer is not good at baseball. 

 

Others of Note

Spencer Torkelson (-41.87)- Torkelson had a disaster of a year, but he showed some promise in September when he rejoined the team after being demoted. The park change should help him and the rest of the Tigers offense a bit as well. There is no reason for the Tigers to not let him figure it out at the Major League level so he is a good cheap gamble. 

Jared Walsh (-109.44)- Walsh is dropping with the worry that he won’t be the same after thoracic outlet surgery. There is virtually no historical data on how it affects hitters and the amount of players the Angels brought in this offseason could be a sign they don’t believe he will be ready to go. AVOID!

Joey Votto (-135.91)- Votto is dropping with worries of his own health. Reports are that he doesn’t know when he will be ready and now the Reds are talking about Tyler Stephenson playing 140-150 games which would mean some at first base and DH. I am a bit worried Votto will miss a big chunk of the early season. 

 

 

First Base ADP Market Report: 2/2/2023
12/5/22-2/2/23 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/22-10/31/22 11/1/22-12/4/22 Change
11.83 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 13.13 12 0.17
13.16 Freddie Freeman LAD 1B 15.37 15.73 2.57
19.3 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 22.77 22.45 3.15
26.84 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 29.67 26.82 -0.02
44.97 Matt Olson ATL 1B 41.57 38.55 -6.42
93.06 Jose Abreu HOU 1B 127.47 130.18 37.12
94.21 Vinnie Pasquantino KC 1B 92.93 89.91 -4.3
104.1 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 1B 100.97 100.73 -3.37
121.7 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 116.33 120 -1.7
126.55 C.J. Cron COL 1B 112.5 121 -5.55
136.26 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 142.07 132.64 -3.62
140.64 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B, OF 147.53 142.18 1.54
149.76 Jose Miranda MIN 1B, 3B 160.5 148.64 -1.12
152.72 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 164.5 165.64 12.92
159.54 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B 150.07 152.82 -6.72
172.5 Ty France SEA 1B 162.93 165.18 -7.32
173.19 Rowdy Tellez MLW 1B 181.03 176.55 3.36
181.28 Josh Bell CLE 1B 194.27 198.82 17.54
191.69 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B 177.63 196.55 4.86
193.37 Joey Meneses WAS 1B, OF 211.6 188.45 -4.92
193.71 Brandon Drury LAA 1B, 2B, 3B 185.5 192.27 -1.44
205.39 Seth Brown OAK 1B, OF 208.1 208.36 2.97
211.12 Luis Arraez MIA 1B, 2B 193.23 196.82 -14.3
226.52 Josh Naylor CLE 1B 204.17 215.55 -10.97
237.37 Triston Casas BOS 1B 239.8 235.36 -2.01
260.66 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 215.53 232.18 -28.48
272.03 Trey Mancini CHC 1B, OF 259.23 270.45 -1.58
277.01 Miguel Vargas LAD 1B 305.37 277.36 0.35
299.5 Matt Mervis CHC 1B 288.83 260.27 -39.23
317.35 Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 TB C, 1B 384.57 366.82 49.47
318.23 Spencer Torkelson DET 1B 280.7 276.36 -41.87
364.36 Wil Myers CIN 1B, OF 471.63 457 92.64
376.39 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 334.2 335.82 -40.57
415.33 Isaac Paredes TB 1B, 2B, 3B 331.43 317 -98.33
425.62 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 294.97 316.18 -109.44
483.61 Harold Ramirez TB 1B, OF 383.43 383.82 -99.79
504.71 Luke Voit WAS 1B 310.8 304.91 -199.8
513.73 Joey Votto CIN 1B 364.3 377.82 -135.91
543.92 Brandon Belt TOR 1B 491.73 470.91 -73.01
553.58 Garrett Cooper MIA 1B 470.7 467.55 -86.03
556.23 Carlos Santana PIT 1B 595.37 580.27 24.04
571.56 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, 3B, OF 484.83 471.55 -100.01
596.27 Eric Hosmer CHC 1B 520.43 511.82 -84.45
596.3 Keston Hiura MLW 1B 465.83 463.82 -132.48
600.84 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 535.03 509.36 -91.48
620.65 Ji-Man Choi PIT 1B 635.7 558.45 -62.2
623.92 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B, 3B 548.33 560 -63.92
626.31 Dominic Smith WAS 1B 682.1 617 -9.31
629.58 Kyle Manzardo TB 1B 566.1 536.91 -92.67
643.95 Nick Pratto KC 1B 485.17 491.82 -152.13
652.39 Connor Joe PIT 1B, OF 612.73 617.64 -34.75
674.7 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 475.5 469.55 -205.15
677.54 Cavan Biggio TOR 1B, 2B 562.07 568.45 -109.09
680.98 Jesus Aguilar OAK 1B 605.9 575.82 -105.16
687.54 Ryan Noda OAK 1B NA NA NA
707.74 Owen Miller MLW 1B, 2B 692.17 677.73 -30.01
724.73 Harold Castro DET 1B, 3B 592 590.36 -134.37
725.61 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 594.5 614 -111.61
735.55 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 3B 638.67 641.91 -93.64
737.82 P.J. Higgins CHC C, 1B 666.8 638.73 -99.09
743.06 Darin Ruf 러프 NYM 1B, OF 739.97 728.82 -14.24
747.28 Dermis Garcia OAK 1B 707.17 706.18 -41.1
747.56 Michael Chavis PIT 1B 732.07 741 -6.56
747.75 Franchy Cordero BAL 1B, OF 743.07 743.82 -3.93
747.8 Donovan Solano CIN 1B 719.97 722.82 -24.98
747.83 Alfonso Rivas CHC 1B 742.57 728 -19.83
747.91 Jon Singleton MLW 1B 742.07 726.64 -21.27
749.76 Lewin Diaz BAL 1B 714.3 694.73 -55.03
750.39 Matt Duffy LAA 1B, 3B 743.43 731 -19.39
750.46 Colin Moran CIN 1B NA NA NA
750.49 Bobby Bradley CLE 1B NA NA NA
750.56 Frank Schwindel CHC 1B 718.3 737.91 -12.65
750.79 Josh VanMeter PIT 1B, 2B NA NA NA
750.92 Yoshi Tsutsugo PIT 1B 749.73 NA NA
750.93 Evan White SEA 1B NA NA NA
750.96 Spencer Horwitz TOR 1B 750.77 750.36 -0.6
NA Leandro Cedeno FA 1B 741.9 733.64 NA
NA Logan Porter KC 1B 750.53 NA NA
ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

1 Comment
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
CreamyMember since 2015
1 year ago

Good write-up, but Anthony Rizzo has not been a 5 category producer since 2019 as his BA has been low the last 3 years. Maybe a 245 average if he gets a boost with the shift eliminated . . .