As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Nolan Arenado (+8.29)- I think the safety that Arenado offers has a lot to do with his value and rising ADP. While many expected him to fall off after leaving Colorado, he has proven to be a workhorse that is good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI. I think the average returns back to the .260 area, but that is fine because the floor is so safe. 

Alex Bregman (+7.54)- After a slow start to the season, Bregman was fantastic from August on. He hit .290/.394/.513 with 10 home runs in that time frame, making amazing zone contact and hitting the ball extremely hard to the pull side. He hasn’t put together a full season of great work since 2019, but the ability is clearly still there. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Jose Miranda (+18.5)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Josh Rojas (-11.95)- Rojas’ drop has a lot to do with the perceived risk in playing time. Rojas was losing time in the second half before injuries gave him greater opportunities. The Diamondbacks have been rumored to be in on a number of infielders, but it sounds like they are more interested in a shortstop than a third baseman. Rojas has speed upside and I still think that there is more in the bat overall. However, his defensive issues really holds him back and there is a ton of risk here. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Jung (+10.4)- Jung is going to be a popular player especially if he has a big spring training. Unlike other prospects, I think he has a legit shot at being an everyday player on Opening Day. There is power which was on display when he hit five home runs in 26 games at the Majors. While he showed more swing and miss, he has shown good contact skills previously in the minors. I am very interested in Jung as a guy that has a clear road to a great role in an improving offense. 

Jordan Walker (+22.39)- It is interesting to see Walker rising so fast. The talent is not really in question, but where is he playing? He clearly is blocked by Arenado at third and while he should be able to transition to the outfield, it is not like the Cardinals are devoid of options there either. He has never played at AAA, so I would expect him to start the year there, but he could force himself up pretty quickly if he dominates there like he has everywhere else. 

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (+13.58)- See the article in this series on shortstops.  

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-28.84)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-19.5)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Others of Note

Justin Turner (-25.28)- Turner is dropping because he is not signed yet and he had a down year in 2022. However, he actually rebounded late in the season, hitting .340/412/.514 with seven home runs and two stolen bases from July 1 on. I still believe he ends up back in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and if he does, he is a pretty good bet to return value at his cost. 

Patrick Wisdom (-49.07)- Wisdom swings. Wisdom swings hard. Wisdom strikes out. Wisdom hits home runs. That is pretty much the scouting report for Patrick Wisdom. Unfortunately for him, with the Cubs adding players (and they could add more) he is likely a bench bat at this point which hurts his value. That being said, there is cheap power and so there is value in draft champions. 

Brian Anderson (+53.99)- Why is Anderson rising when he doesn’t even have a team after being non-tendered? Sometimes things don’t make sense. Even if he does latch on somewhere, I don’t think he has a lot of value unless he has a full time role. 

Here is the transcript from today’s chat!

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

12/11/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is my chat transcript for today!

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well below where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC Draft Champions ADP.

Dylan Cease: My Rank 19, ADP: 6
I am not surprised to see Cease a lot lower in my ranks than in the ADP. He is coming off of a monster season, but there are clear red flags. First, for being an “elite” starter, he doesn’t have a great WHIP. I think this is one of the most overlooked categories in the game. Part of his issue with the WHIP is how much he walks guys and I worry about the fact he does not have great control and him relying so much on two pitches. He could easily repeat last season and I’ll look dumb, but if I am taking a pitcher as high as he is going, then I would prefer to not have the questions I did.

Spencer Strider: My Rank: 17, ADP: 8
This is another player that I could look really stupid by the end of 2023. Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball if you look on a per inning basis. If he repeats with a higher inning total, he could easily be the #1 pitcher in fantasy. That being said, I struggle with his lack of track record and what his innings count will be. He threw 136.1 innings in 2022 if you include the playoffs and minors and while he could make a jump to 150 or 160 innings, but I have a hard time projecting that. I also worry about his true two-pitch mix. Guys like him can struggle when they don’t have the feel for a pitch and as hitters start to see him over time. He may move up in my projections over time, but even if he does, I can’t imagine he ends up on any of my teams this year.

Nick Lodolo: My Rank 69, ADP 38
This one hurts a little because I love Lodolo’s potential. He can strike out anyone and I the control and command are improving. However, I don’t love that he pitches in Cincinnati. It is a horrible park and the team is not going to be good at all. He is likely going to deliver a bad WHIP and wins will be hard to come by and while I love the upside, it is hard to take a guy that has potential to be just a two-category producer as a SP 3 or high end 4.

Dustin May: My Rank 93, ADP: 46
Who is Dustin May? That is the question I struggled with when doing his projections. I want to believe he is the dominant guy we saw in 2021 and that 2022 is largely a product of his health. That being said, I just can’t get past the injury issues. He only threw 51 innings between the Majors and minors and he didn’t even appear in the postseason. I can’t imagine he gets to 130+ innings which means his upside is limited even on a great Dodgers team.

Michael Kopech My Rank: 101, ADP: 69
I am surprised at this point that people are still drafting Kopech as highly as they are considering what we have seen from him. I think a lot of people are throwing out how he looked after hurting his knee in June, but I worry about his command and control and the huge dropoff in strikeout rate in 2022 which means he is a fifth starter with a bad WHIP. Finally, I worry he won’t be able to throw 140-150 innings. Maybe a return to health means he becomes the guy many believed (including me) he would eventually become, but I think there are too many people still drafting him based off of his name value from that prospect pedigree and not enough people looking at what has happened on the field. I could definitely find myself pushing him up my ranks in spring training if we see a completely healthy Kopech that looks great, but for right now, I can’t draft him at cost.

I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well above where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC draft champions ADP. 

Read the rest of this entry »