Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 20th, 2023 by Justin Mason February 20, 2023 Here is today’s chat transcript. 9:03 Justin Mason: Justin Mason: Will start at the top of the hour and if we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! 9:04 Justin Mason: I also have my Beat Justin Mason Online Championship today at 3pm EST and will be streaming it live on my youtube, twitch, and twitter as well as I will have a post for it on FanGraphs! 10:00 Just Wait: In a 5×5 roto, which position(s) would you feel comfortable filling a starter in the last few rounds, and with which player(s)? 1B seems to be very deep 10:02 Justin Mason: I think when we talk about positional scarcity it really depends on how deep of a league we are talking. For instance, SS is loaded, but in a deeper league, it falls off pretty quickly. 1B is is probably the easiest to get later on for sure. I have an article coming out on Fantasy Pros that I finished last night that breaks down my thoughts on each position for shallower and deeper formats. 10:02 BlueJayMatt: 3B is weak this year, outside of the top 6-8 guys – how do you strategize to account for this during the draft? 10:03 Justin Mason: I think it is definitely weaker in the middle than at the top or in the back of the draft, but honestly it is not as bad as second base. I am hoping to leave my draft with an elite guy but if I don’t I have found myself just waiting and taking one of the high upside young guys later like Josh Jung and Jordan Walker. 10:03 TJ: Hey Justin! Got a keeper question here (14 Team H2H Cat). All the details are in this image (https://imgur.com/a/sAYWmlR) as it would be easier than to type out and format. I have my 12 keepers planned for now. Would you change anything? 10:04 Justin Mason: I think the 12 you have lined up is right but I think you can make the argument for Lawlar over Chourio 10:04 Frank: Am I crazy for thinking $7 Haase is a sneaky keeper in a 12 team AL only league when 6 of the other top 10 catchers are also being kept? 10:05 Justin Mason: I think he is a decent keeper at that price depending on your other keepers. You may be able to get him back for about that anyways. 10:05 Nick: What’s Lux’s upside if the reports of him coming in much stronger than last year translate to an increase in batted ball metrics? 10:06 Justin Mason: I think he has legit 25/20 upside. I have alleys been a big fan and he is still very young. He is a big target for me in drafts this year. 10:06 Closer and closers: Hi Justin. 10 team AL only. Debating between keeping $14 Clase or $1 Munoz (or maybe both). Any preference? I only get 4 keepers, so the idea of making 2 of them RPs is odd, but saves in AL Only look shaky. 10:07 Justin Mason: I would only keep Clase if I had only four keepers. I love Munoz’s ceiling, but I also don’t think he gets the job by himself in Seattle 10:07 Ron: Hey Justin, What are your quick season projections on Jazz Chisholm and Oneil Cruz? Trying to determine reasonable draft rounds for each, without overpaying. Thanks 10:08 Justin Mason: I have Cruz for 27/19 with a .242 and Chisholm for 22/22 .241. The difference being that I only have Chisholm getting 500 PAs because of injury. 10:09 tortycraig: Hi Justin! Keeping 8 of 10 in Roto 5×5 OBP Auction Draft League – cost savings for Lindor over Turner make sense to you? Keep Bregman over J Ram as well for more savings?? Thank you! Leave T. Turner (44) Bregman (20) Keep Lindor (15) Jose Ramirez (47) Julio Rodriguez (20) Mullins (8) Robert (8) Rutschman (6) Cease (15) Helsley (6) 10:10 Justin Mason: I would keep Lindor over Turner and definitely J-Ram over Bregman in this scenario. 10:10 BlueJayMatt: How many fantasy teams are you going to have this year? 10:10 Justin Mason: I am not counting this year. lol 10:10 Justin Mason: Definitely more than last year but I don’t know that I get back to my 2021 numbers. 10:11 5×5 roto: In your experience, who has the most accurate ranks for a 5×5? 10:11 Justin Mason: I think ATC is usually up there because he takes a smart aggregate of the best projection systems. 10:12 Trader Bob: Having some deep ambivalence about Tanner Houck as a keeper … Jeff Zimmerman was pretty down on him as a starter in his scouting report, and he’s coming off of surgery, but he hasn’t not excelled at the MLB level, and the BoSox rotation is so rickety … 10:12 Justin Mason: I am staying away from Houck. He is the type of guy you pick up if things are going well, but don’t draft. 10:13 AlbertEinstein: Was mathematics invented or discovered? 10:13 Justin Mason: Pretty sure the chicken hears the tree fall. 10:13 Bart: 14 Team ROTO Keeper league- keep 7- Who would you choose between Jeremy Pena, SS, Hou and Matt Chapman 3B Tor? 10:14 Justin Mason: Chapman for me. I like Pena, but don’t see much growth in the profile and third base is more difficult to manage. 10:14 BT in VT: How good of an offensive player do you think William Contreras/Brewers can be? 10:15 Justin Mason: I think he can be pretty good, but I also don’t know that he gets a ton of extra plate appearances at DH which could help him compile more. He is a top 12 catcher this year, but I don’t see him breaking into the top 5-7 10:15 Air Yordan: In a points league (emphasis on strikeout and walk rates) I’m ready to go in on Vinnie P a round or 2 early. Is there any reason other than a poor lineup around him that I shouldn’t? 10:15 Justin Mason: Nope. Go get your guy. 10:15 RGM: Does Bryson Stott have Andres Gimenez breakout potential? Is there anyone you’re excited to see if they have a Gimenez type jump in them this year? 10:17 Justin Mason: I don’t think he has that high of a ceiling in the speed department personally. The guys that I see that could are CJ Abrams, Nic Hoerner, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성, and Ezequiel Tovar. I don’t dislike Stott, but he isn’t a major target for me. More of a compiler than a potential stud 10:17 Justin Mason: *Nico Hoerner 10:17 Dave: Can Ketel Marte score 100 runs this year? 10:17 Justin Mason: If he can stay healthy for a full season I think he could surprise, but dude just hasn’t been able to stay on the field. 10:18 Matt: In round 14 of a current Draft & Hold, but in my opinion the room is bonkers. Hitters going way over ADP, Pitchers way under. So I’m re-evaluating my list. Do I go with the crowd? Zig-Zag? Or just take whatever value is there at the time? 10:19 Justin Mason: I like to soak up the value at that point and as long as it doesn’t put me way behind. Just be careful of the positional drop-offs. I have had two DCs where I pushed SS too far and was left with garbage at what is supposed to be the deepest position this year. 10:19 DJ: Who do you think gets the most at bats in the Reds outfield this season, and am I crazy for thinking TJ Friedl has serious breakout potential for points leagues? 10:19 Justin Mason: That’s my dude this year! I feel like he is getting slept on as the leadoff hitter for the Reds. He is on a ton of my teams already. 10:20 Dave: Miguel Vargas vs Jonathan India. Who do you prefer at second base? 10:20 Justin Mason: India, but it is closer than it seems. 10:20 Definitely not Nick: What is the SP ranking that you’re most different on than anyone else? 10:21 Justin Mason: I am way higher on Brady Singer than the market. Also higher on Jordan Montgomery and Jose Suarez. I am way lower on Dustin May and Tyler Glasnow because of their innings risk. 10:21 Dan: How do you determine which podcast gets what content? 10:23 Justin Mason: Well, Paul does the rundowns for the Sleeper and the Bust during the week. I do most of the rundowns for FWFB. Sometimes there is some overlap because I know that some people do not listen to both. I am trying to do a little different stuff with FWFB this year to distinguish it from a lot of the other podcasts on the market, but it is hard to make everything super original and different when I am recording upwards of 10 podcasts a week. 10:24 Dave: Dominguez ends up with more saves than Kimbrel. Reasonable? 10:24 Justin Mason: Sure 10:24 Justin Mason: Though I don’t think it is by a lot. 10:24 A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Final freezer question: 12 team points 1 catcher league, draft, can freeze players forever no penalty. Sure to keep: Julio Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Kyle Tucker, Bobby Witt Jr., Shane McClanahan, Julio Urías. Possible 7th: Ozzie Albies, Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho. Leaning Carroll as it’s crucial in our league to get great guys young (have had Trout since he was 19). What do you think? 10:25 Justin Mason: I agree with you. 10:25 Colton: Turned down a trade for Austin Riley in my dynasty league the other day, plate skills are a bit too unnerving for me to give up Sale, Altuve and a draft pick. Would you have done the same? 10:26 Justin Mason: Think of it like a math equation. Is Riley – Altuve greater of less than Chris Sale and a pick? I don’t think he is great than the package. 10:28 Late relief: Who are your top targets for K’s/WHIP late in a 5×5 12-team roto re-draft? 10:28 Justin Mason: Garrett Whitlock (if he is in the rotation), Aaron Civale, Edward Cabrera, Jose Suarez, Andrew Heaney, Jack Flaherty, Kyle Bradish 10:28 BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: I hold off on the big 1B tickets in an 6×6 league that counts walks and am looking at Andrew Vaughn, Rowdy, J Bell…maybe even N Lowe & Rizzo. Who are you taking? 10:29 Justin Mason: Lowe and Rizzo are my favorites there, but I like both Tellez and Bell at their price as well. 10:29 BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: I saw your 3B love for Walker & Jung…any love for Matt Chapman? 10:30 Justin Mason: Probably not love by a strong like. I think if you pair him with one of those guys, you can avoid spending up at the position. 10:30 Matt: How would you rank these RP’s for holds: Rafael Montero, Robert Suarez, Carlos Estevez, Taylor Rogers, Daniel Hudson? 10:30 Justin Mason: Montero, Suarez, Rogers, Estevez, Hudson 10:30 Mike: Can you rank these 3 3B: Rendon, Donaldson, Turner? 10:31 Justin Mason: Turner, Rendon, Donaldson 10:31 Mike: Can you rank these 3 SP: Heaney, Manaea, Eovaldi? 10:31 Justin Mason: Heaney, Eovaldi, Manaea 10:32 BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: You like J India…are you passing on Gimenez, B Lowe, and G Torres for him? 10:33 Justin Mason: Not necessarily, but I tend to end up with India more because the field is passing him up for those guys. I like all of those options, but often wait for the last one off the board. My ranks have Gimenez, India, Torres, Lowe in that order 10:33 BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: Are you in on Hunter Greene this year, with the normal caveat about draft capital of course. Thanks for doing these chats by the way. 10:34 Justin Mason: I am ok with the current price but I think he will skyrocket this spring. I worry that he isn’t a good WHIP guy and is on a team where wins will be hard to come by. If the price continues to rise, I will be out. 10:34 Justin Mason: The upside is unreal though 10:34 Foolsrushin63: Wesneski or Waldichuk for keeper league? 10:34 Justin Mason: Wesneski 10:34 Cedric Mullins: I love you, mwah 10:34 Justin Mason: I love you more! 10:34 BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: What team offense(s) will be sneaky good this year? Looking for tiebreakers when I draft. 10:35 Justin Mason: Call me crazy, but if they don’t trade Reynolds, the Pirates have a really underrated offense. If the White Sox and Angels stay healthy, they could each be top five offenses. Arizona is really sneaky good potentially too. 10:36 Dave: Who would win a laser tag match: Sporer/Pollack vs Mason/Bubba 10:37 Justin Mason: Listen, I think most people would pick against me and bubba because we are heftier guys but, I am a US Army Veteran and have destroyed every laser tag and paint ball game I have ever been a part of. We are also shorter which helps in terms of hiding. 10:37 BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: Is Alec Bohm a reasonable fallback in a 12 team mixed that counts walks? What do you project for him this year? 10:38 Justin Mason: I have Bohm projected for 16 home runs and a .326 OBP. If he ever lists the ball, he could be special. 10:38 Wil Myers: Are people sleeping on me, or no 10:38 Justin Mason: Not anymore. His ADP has gone up almost 200 spots since signing in Cincy. Go read my most recent first base market report! 10:38 john: Did Burnes hasten his departure from Milwaukee when he openly complained about the arbitration process? 10:39 Justin Mason: Nah, if he wants to sign there, they would love to have him. I think he wants more money than there are going to be willing to give him though. 10:40 Chris: When I use my auction calculator the estimated $ values for 1B like Rhys Hoskins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Rowdy Tellez diverge sharply between the ATC and the BATX although the projections look similar between the two systems. I wonder why that might be? 10:40 Justin Mason: That is weird. I will look into it, but it may be more of an issue with the calculator because just looking at their projections for Tellez, they are pretty identical. 10:41 Dave: Assuming Jordan Walker cracks the OD lineup and is available at 3B in your league, where would he rank among 3B men? 10:42 Justin Mason: I would have to adjust my projection to be certain, but I think he would be at least 8 if not 7! I love Walker. 10:42 Leon: Wander or gunner as a keeper 10:42 Justin Mason: For me it is Wander, but I am not a Gunnar guy. 10:42 viceroy: I’m in a 12 team 40 man roster keeper league 5×5 (OPS, SVHLD), keep 20, how would you rank these OFs: Trout, Randy, Ward, TONeil? 10:43 Justin Mason: Trout, Arozarena, Ward, O’Neill 10:43 Foolsrushin63: Please rank Kwan, Nootbaar, Yoshida — points keeper league 10:43 Justin Mason: That is the correct order 10:43 phil: keeper league 5×5 format, can you rank these guys: Flaherty, Trevor Rogers, Skubal 10:44 Justin Mason: Rogers, Flaherty, Skubal 10:44 Sam: Stott or Tovar in a 5×5 OPS keeper league? 10:44 Justin Mason: Tovar 10:44 Guest: Could you justify keeping Spencer Strider instead of Cole? 10:44 Justin Mason: I could not 10:44 Rickey H.: Do you think Walker Buehler is easily a top 125 player in next year’s draft? Have a chance to trade for him in a keeper league but probably not worth it if he’s not. Thanks! 10:45 Justin Mason: Not to me. I don’t draft guys coming off of TJ. That being said, you might be able to flip him as such because the market might price him there. 10:45 Guest: In real life (or in my case a strat league) will Curtis Mead be a capable enough fielder to play every day at 2b or 3b to be a legitimate regular? 10:45 Justin Mason: I don’t believe his defense will be good enough there. 10:46 Guest: Hi, regarding the projections that you and Paul have been doing: I’d have thought that the live adjustments you’ve been doing, and their large effect would have convinced you to use a more numbers based approach rather than the more feel approach it sounds like you’ve been using? Are’t you incorporating my bias by definition? Thanks 10:48 Justin Mason: I don’t think bias is avoidable even if you use just a strictly numbers based approach. Even guys like Derek Carty tell you their biases come into play in how they develop their systems. Making and using my own projections is a way for me to be less biased and stick to what I believe, but I don’t know that is possible to eliminate them completely. 10:48 itialian vinny: Offered Rodon for my Randy + Giolito, is that reasonable in a keeper league? 10:48 Justin Mason: It is reasonable but I want the pair 10:48 JG: Any late dark horse candidates for saves in deep nfbc leagues as dart throws? 10:49 Justin Mason: Dany Jimenez, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer. 10:49 Yuniesky Betancourt: Which current MLB player would do the best in a dunk contest? 10:49 Justin Mason: It has to be Byron Buxton, right? Or Amir Garrett. 10:49 Jared Walsh: What are my chances of hitting 30 bombs and 100 RBIs 10:50 Justin Mason: 1% 10:50 Joey Meneses: “Joey Meneses will play 1B, LF and DH this season” news just dropped. Is he legit? 10:50 Justin Mason: I think he will get a lot of opportunities, but I don’t think he is what we saw last season. 10:50 Bob: In real life (or again strat) please rank the following SP, Brayan Bello, Luis Ortiz, Chase Silseth for long term growth. 10:50 Justin Mason: Ortiz, Bello, Silseth 10:51 Rickey H.: NL-only keeper league $260 budget but with 30-35% inflation. Must cut one, don’t have to keep any out of C Morel $7, B Stott $8 or M Conforto $10. Who to cut, any to keep? Thanks? 10:51 Justin Mason: I think I keep Stott and Morel on the upside alone, but honestly, I could cut all three. 10:52 Guest: I’m in year 3 of running a points league, redraft. Previously on ESPN. This year I want to do a keeper league with MIDSEASON redraft. Any advice on how to do that mechanically, and on how many players to keep? I was thinking about 4-7 keepers. Partly it’s to add engagement for people who are newer to fantasy. Last year we had about 11 starting hitter slots, innings limit around 50 per week. 10:54 Justin Mason: This sounds crazy and fun. I think 5 keepers makes sense. I don’t love innings limits because I think you should reward people for being active, but I understand it if it is a shallower league. Love the innovation here! 10:54 fanny: Hello Justin, I couldn’t find which episode yall talked about Ha -Seong Kim on the podcast. I’m not sure if he was at a position I missed, or yall skipped him. Thanks! 10:55 Justin Mason: I believe it was shortstop, but I can talk to Paul or Jason about doing an episode where we focus on the multi-positional eligible guys 10:55 F Sherf: 12 Teams, 4 keep, 5 x 5 league, forever keep. keeping Tatis, Jo Ram, Michael Harris…… Last pick is between Harper, Oneil Cruz, Wander , Kyle Schwarber???? 10:55 Justin Mason: I think Harper is the right answer here even with him missing time. 10:56 Guest: Hey Justin, last keeper in a roto 5×5 with 1 C and 3 OF: McCarthy, MJ Melendez or A Vaughn. All late round pics. Thanks 10:56 Justin Mason: I think I lean Melendez here 10:57 Foolsrushin63: Please rank — Montgomery, Bassit, Morton, Senga, Flaherty and Rogers — points keeper league 10:58 Justin Mason: Definitely check our new rankings page under the fantasy tab! Montgomery, Bassitt, Rogers, Flaherty, Senga, Morton for me. 10:58 RD: In a 10 team league, are you more apt to spend big (70-80%) on hitting since pitching can be found for cheap, or do you still try and balance out your team at the 65/35% mark? 10:58 Justin Mason: Absolutely. I go 70/30 10:59 Guest: Hi Justin, in an AL only 5×5 roto auction league I need one last keeper: Glasnow 1, Altuve 31, Singer 7 J Ryan 3, Vinnie P 7, A Vaughn 6 or MJ Melendez 7. Thank you 10:59 Justin Mason: That is tough. Give me the $7 Vinnie P, but $1 Glasnow is tempting because he could be a monster 11:00 Justin Mason: Ok, I have to wrap up now because I have my Online Championship draft in an hour. It will be live streamed on Youtube, Twitch, Twitter and here! Come by and hang out! 11:00 Justin Mason: In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!