Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 13th, 2023

Here is today chat transcript:

 

9:46
Justin Mason: Will start at the top of the hour and if we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

10:00
Justin Mason: Here we go!

10:00
Steve: Is it fair to expect Tyler Anderson to retain most of the gains he made last year?

10:01
Justin Mason: I think it is fair to expect a fair amount of regression as he likely won’t repeat the low strand rate and BABIP, but I don’t think he regresses as far as our projection systems do. The hate on him seems a bit overblown and he is a value currently.

10:01
Jeff: With the Reyes signing: what percentage of total saves do Graterol/Hudson get in LA?

10:03
Justin Mason: I don’t know that Reyes factors in a ton. I would expect Daniel Hudson and Evan Phillips to get the majority of the opportunities with Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia picking up a smaller part of the share as well. Pretty much a straight committee to start.

10:03
KevinT: Thinking about doing my first ME this year. How much of a correlation can you make from a DC 15 team draft to a ME. I have been listening to you and others for years, I understand the push up of pitching. Looking for other feedback or thoughts on the differences between a DC/OC and a ME. Thanks for all the work!

10:07
Justin Mason: You nailed the first part, which is starting pitching goes much higher. I would expect 2-4 SPs going in the first round in the main events where right now there aren’t any currently. The second big thing is that ADP is much less useful. People just go get their guys. You can use the Main Event ADP in some of the later ones so I recommend if it is your first year, to draft as late as possible, but even then, take your guys even if it feels like you might be able to get them later. Huge upside guys get pushed up a ton. Both Witt and J-Rod were going in the top four rounds by the later drafts. Be aggressive on the guys you want, but don’t be extremely risky either. People that win Main Event leagues rack up plate appearances and innings and often have a more boring looking team than you would expect.

10:07
KevinT: Beginning of the offseason, you were not loving 3B. Do you still feel that way? I am starting to see some opportunity with the mid-back end of 3B. I like Muncy and Chapman (strong counting stats for both with not horrible BA). Miranda seems like he could be a new Donaldson type player. McMahon had a very week counting stat profile for the number of homers. And Walker seems like a big upside play. Thoughts?

10:09
Justin Mason: I still think the totality of the 3B pool is weak overall, but I think it’s depth is a little better than others do and better than like 2B is. I don’t mind rolling with guys like Jordan Walker, Josh Jung, Justin Turner, or Jose Miranda.

10:09
KevinT: In a DC, I have identified Walker/Tovar/Vargas/Casas as a tier of upside players I want to attack given their ADP in the 15ish round. Do you have a preference (I know you like Walker) but is he your fav of that group? Any 1 you are avoiding?

10:10
Justin Mason: I think Walker is my favorite of the group followed by Miguel Vargas, Triston Casas, and Ezekiel Tovar if you are looking at upside. If you want a little more safety, I think Vargas falls to the back of the group because his playing time is less guaranteed.

10:11
KevinT: Something that is not discussed enough is “waiting on a position” in drafts. If we as drafters are going to “attack” certain positions, the inverse must be true and we have to wait for certain positions. Is there a position you feel comfortable drafting late as your starter?

10:12
Justin Mason: Absolutely! I am fine waiting on pitching, first base, and shortstop, but only to a point. While these positions have more depth than others, there are clear drop offs in all of them. I did a draft where I pushed the limits of SS too far and I regretted it. Waiting on a position is not the same as ignoring it.

10:13
Bingo Bango: If you pass on pitching in the first 4 rounds, who are you looking to target as your SP1 after pick 50? Does not taking a top-15 starter affect your decision (i.e., floor vs. upside)?

10:14
Justin Mason: Zach Wheeler, Julio Urias, Alex Manoah, Zac Gallen, and Luis Castillo. Typically if I do this, I will try and get two of these guys. This has been my preferred strategy so far this season. I really like loading up on hitting and then hammering pitching after the first four rounds.

10:14
Jeff: Who is your least favorite baseball player?

10:15
Justin Mason: As a Giants fan, I would say any Dodger, but I have a weird hatred for Carlos Correa just generally.

10:15
Cat: In years past it has been consistently preached that you can always find cheap power late in drafts. Has that been your experience this year and have there been any trends you’ve noticed in which categories have late juice or dry up quicker than usual?

10:17
Justin Mason: I definitely think it dries up quicker this year than in years past or at least the deficits the late power have are hard to overcome (i.e. bad batting averages.) I am trying to stay as balanced as possible in my drafts this year because I also don’t know how the new rules (and if we get a different ball) will play out for fantasy so giving myself as many options to pivot in drafts and in season is important to me.

10:17
BucketListJensen: Hello Justin, do you have any idea if Elly De La Cruz will be up earlier than expected?  Where about should I target him in a draft?

10:17
Justin Mason: I would be really surprised if he is. What do the Reds have to gain from starting his clock?

10:17
Guest: Trying to figure out what I should do with Alek Thomas. Projections vary between the Bat

10:18
Justin Mason: I love Thomas as a long term play but he is blocked right now so unless he gets traded or you can handle a long term stash, I would stay away for this year.

10:19
Guest: Ottoneu 5×5 Auction question (sorry about the other one i hit enter too fast haha)

I currently have an SP rotation of Rodon ($20) Gausman ($9) Nestor Cortes ($4) Nick Lodolo ($3) Rasmussen ($3) Tylor Megill ($3) and Ashby ($5).

Projections put this group around 1225 IP. My question is – should I target a bona-fide ace in the auction? I have plenty of cap space and the likes of Degrom, Cole, Scherzer, Nola and Darvish are out there.

Or am I better served spending the same amount of $$ on 2-3 mid level starters (Severino, Giolito, Bassitt, types)?

10:20
Justin Mason: I don’t think you need one of the top guys unless you just want a massive advantage in the rotation. You have a pretty good base already, but there is risk. Anyone I targeted would be among the less risky guys so I would be out on degrom and Giolito.

10:20
Guru3:16: I’m debating keeping Josh Rojas but can’t decide where he fits in the Diamondbacks plans.  I think he could get to 30SB and be an every day player.  Thoughts on his outlook for the year?

10:21
Justin Mason: I love Rojas but I think his playing time early could be a bit bumpy and frustrating. I do think that it works itself out and he returns value, but in shallower leagues or if you are not patient, he may be better served on the wire.

10:22
Joe: Who do you think will end up getting the most starts for the Dodgers in CF? Taylor has a decent projection for NL only leagues, and I can keep him for super cheap, but I worry that he will end up sitting most of the time.

10:23
Justin Mason: I think Taylor is more of a super utility guy for the Dodgers, but he should play a lot. I honestly think the every day center fielder is not yet on the team. Bryan Reynolds could be the guy that is starting in LA opening day. I just can’t imagine they start the season with Trayce Thompson playing every day.

10:23
Vince: In 10-tm, H2H category, 3 OF league (Reynolds, Suzuki my only locked OF), Marte or Springer? Both ranked and priced about the same. Carroll, Kwan, Nimmo would be possible auction bids. Please explain! Thanks!

10:24
Justin Mason: Marte for me. His ceiling is so nice and I think the market is too low on him.

10:24
jaosn: Do players like Leody Tavares ever learn to hit?  By that I mean, having the defense and speed gives you more chances (like say Brad Zimmer), but can they get better in the majors?

10:25
Justin Mason: I think Taveras still has yet to prove that he can’t hit. He had a league average zone contact and o-swing last year in the majors. His defense should give him opportunities. I like him a lot.

10:26
Don Von Handburger: Thoughts on Alek Manoah as a keeper in a league with limited keepers

10:26
Justin Mason: I know projections don’t like him, but I think they are missing how good his command is and I honestly think he is an SP1 in 12-leagues this year.

10:27
Insert Witty Name Here: Any players you watched from last season where you think they’re primed for a breakout relative to their projections? Maybe a Homer pick, but I think Bryson Stott is way better than .240/.310/.380

10:28
Justin Mason: I like Stott to outperform his projections but not by a ton necessarily. Guys I like are Josh Jung, Jose Miranda, Gavin Lux, Nico Hoerner, Jonathan India, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Lars Nootbaar, and TJ Freidl

10:28
Kal: In H2H leagues, do you prefer to have streaky hitters who can win you a week and then be benched when they are running cold, or hitters who are consistent but rarely spike a stellar week?

10:29
Justin Mason: I think I prefer the more stable guys because the streaky ones can sink you in a given week. I definitely want to take a few gambles with the risky guys but the majority of my roster should be stable quantities.

10:30
DressBarn: Hi Justin, thanks for the chat.  I’ve got a MI keeper problem.  I can only keep one of either Andres Gimenez or Wander Franco and I can’t decide who to keep.  Any help on making my decision would be welcome. Thanks!

10:30
Justin Mason: Really depends on if it is a short term keeper league or long term. Long term I want Franco. This year I want Gimenez.

10:31
KevinT: Is the fantasy community on the whole not looking enough at all the rule changes and how thats going to affect pitching? I know alot of it is guesswork, but the fact is I have not heard anyone talk about the time to first. And as we know, “pitchers are creatures of habit”. Just feel like especially for closers, guys like Jansen and Devin Williams with slow times to first are avoids this year for me.

10:32
Justin Mason: I think it is just so hard to quantify things. Some guys that are slow will struggle and others will adjust with little problems. Identifying who will and who won’t is kind of a crapshoot. I understand using it as a tie breaker if you think that two guys are really close in value, but I am not taking a guy off my board because of something like that.

10:32
Keeper dilemma: Choose two SP between deGrom, Nola, Webb, and Fried. Points league but kind of prehistoric, with big numbers for wins, innings and k’s.

10:33
Justin Mason: Nola for sure. Then it is between Fried and deGrom for me and that is a discussion between safety and upside. In a shallow league, I go deGrom. In a deeper league I lean Fried.

10:33
AJ Puk: Am I the immediate frontrunner for saves in Miami?

10:33
Justin Mason: No

10:34
Veenstar: Alec Bohm showed a lof progress last year, hoping he can do the same and keep building.  What do you expect of him in a loaded Philly lineup and where does he rank as far as third basemen go?  Thanks for the chat!

10:34
Justin Mason: I have Bohm 12th, but I also havent drafted him yet this year. I love his upside, but until he can raise that launch angle, the ceiling is not attainable.

10:35
Jefferson: Does Franmil Reyes play in the majors this year? I have to assume he settles on a minor league deal and gets called up for at least some run at DH

10:35
Justin Mason: I think he should get a shot somewhere, but he might also lead the KBO in home runs this year.

10:35
Archibald Witwicky: Waiting on catcher and taking Grandal & Bethancourt as your top 2 in a DC is which of the following: Dumb, Risky, Depends on your roster construction, Bold, Innovative, None of the Above

10:36
Justin Mason: I think it is a bit risky, but I also don’t mind it because you can load up elsewhere. Just make sure your catchers 3 and 4 are playable or at least have some upside.

10:36
Eladio: Do you think Hayes could surprise and become a long term piece again?

10:37
Justin Mason: I am assuming you are talking about Ke’Bryan Hayes. I think at this point that he is what he is unless he can raise that launch angle. That being said, I dream on what we saw in 2020.

10:39
Archibald Witwicky: If a transformer could turn into a bat or a ball, would that help Victor Robles with his exit velocity issues?

10:40
Justin Mason: Probably not lol. I probably will never completely give up on him though. He did have a big gain in hard hit rate in the second half and he made gains in his zone contact. Screw it! I am back in baby!

10:40
Justin Mason: I am kidding. Kind of.

10:41
Salvo: 5×5 (WHIP, QS, S+H) 12-team roto draft league, $260 budget, six keepers. Teams often roster 3-4 good/great starters, stream the other starter spots. I’m keeping Jazz plus five pitchers; whom do I NOT keep? Woodruff ($15), McClanahan ($9), Nestor Cotes ($6), Tristen McKenzie ($6), Hunter Greene ($6), Helsley ($6).

10:41
Justin Mason: Man that is tough. I think I would probably not keep McKenzie

10:41
Salvo: I meant 5×5 AUCTION, not draft, in my question.

10:41
Sam: I’m trying to figure out my dynasty league pitching staff and can’t decide between Lance Lynn and Nick Lodolo. Who would your preference be?

10:42
Justin Mason: If you are competiting this year, I go Lynn. If you are thinking more long term, it is Lodolo.

10:42
Alex: A lot of times in preseason articles someone will recommend a player as a sleeper, which gets that player drafted. How long do you usually hang onto sleepers before moving on? Do you give them a month, half a season, etc?

10:44
Justin Mason: I think that is player to player dependent. My general rule is that anyone drafted in the last third of my draft is cuttable otherwise I would have drafted them earlier. That being said, if I believe in a profile, or I see something on the field or in the numbers, I have no problem holding pat.

10:44
Dave H: In our NL Only keeper league we have talked about adding holds or .5 holds as a category stat but there is reluctance from some managers. What impact on closer/saves value do you think that could have? Lots of arguments being made from both sides. Thanks Justin

10:46
Justin Mason: I think that just makes the reliever pool deeper. It really comes down to what your league wants to do. I tend to think that making something easier doesn’t necessarily make it better especially when holds is not a very good stat generally anyhow. I am also a fantasy purest so I tend to believe I you give me the rules of the game and it is my job to figure out how to win not to change the rules to make it easier for me.

10:46
Orioles2024: Need help!  Keep 5 in a HtH categories, 10 teamer.  Adley, BWJ, Gunnar, JRod, Acuna…and Manoah.  Am I crazy to go into the draft with no pitchers?  But those first five…wow?

10:48
Justin Mason: Man, that is a pretty awesome crew in a keeper. I don’t have an issue going in with five hitters, but in a one catcher I would probably throw back Adley and in a two catcher maybe I try and package Manoah and Henderson for another stud. If you can’t get a deal done, I might just roll with the hitters and try to get Manoah in the draft.

10:48
Archibald Witwicky: Toying with the idea of drafting 2 closers in the top 4 rounds of a DC. Ignoring closing (relatively) for the rest of the draft, and loading up on SP so that 6 of the top 10 picks are pitchers. Thoughts?

10:50
Justin Mason: I don’t necessarily hate this idea, but it could put you behind in offense and starting pitching. If you do it, then I guess I would go hitter, hitter, RP, RP and then hammer hitting. I prefer to just get one RP that early unless value dictates something else.

10:50
The enemy of my enemy: Would think Correa would get a bump in your estimation given he and the Dodgers’ mutual disdain. Is that what makes it a “weird” hatred?

10:51
Justin Mason: I don’t know. I just have always disliked him as a player and personality. I was really annoyed when the Giants “signed him” and was pretty relieved when it fell through.

10:51
Dave H: Who do you favor between Chourio/Wood/Jones/Painter in a 5×5 dynasty draft?

10:51
Justin Mason: Jones, Wood, Painter, Chourio but they are all studs.

10:52
KevinT: Do you think overall about the fantasy market as a whole and try to Zig where others Zag or do you fall in line mostly? For example, the narrative is “pitching is deep, so you can wait on pitching” this year. But wouldnt the optimal strategy if the conventional wisdom is to wait on pitching to attack it early?

10:54
Justin Mason: I think if a draft or auction falls that way, then it definitely can be smart to zig while others zag. For instance, in my first draft of the year I was picking at 15 and both Cole and Burnes fell to me there. So instead of taking neither or one, I started pocket aces with the top 2 SPs in the game. I think there is a difference between taking advantage of value because of group think and just being different to be different. I don’t want to be the latter.

10:54
Hector: What are your thoughts on keeping a reasonably priced good veteran as opposed to an inexpensive rookie. Example 11 team AL only standard 5×5, $260 budget, 20% inflation- keep Bergman at $23 or Jung at $7. Thanks!

10:56
Justin Mason: To me it comes down to safety versus the potential reward. I think too often we gamble on the cheaper guy because he is cheap as opposed to the more expensive guy that we know should return value. In this case, If I feel like as much as like Jung, Alex Bregman is probably the better bet.

10:56
Luke: Gausman and Bassitt are the two best available starting pitchers in my dynasty league’s supplemental draft (IP, K, ERA, WHIP, SV/H). Which would you prefer?

10:56
Justin Mason: Gausman

10:56
Jimmy: Will Giolito rebound?

10:58
Justin Mason: I think Lucas Giolito will somewhat, but I am really worried it won’t be to extent that we have seen previously. He really struggled in when he fell behind in counts so I do wonder if it was a pitch sequencing issue and mental issue. He is a guy I want to watch in spring before I draft.

10:58
Tony: Will Detmers, Singer and Joe Ryan take the next step to ace status this year?

10:59
Justin Mason: I think they all could. I am highest on Singer and Ryan but Detmers is really intriguing with what we saw in the second half. I want to draft all three but just not together.

10:59
spike owen: keep forver league: william contreas  or ramon laureano?

10:59
Justin Mason: Contreras

10:59
Ezekiel Duran: Duran seems to have been squeezed out of the Rangers plan, but the bat is potentially explosive. Likely he’s traded?

11:00
Justin Mason: I don’t know that he is traded, but is likely a utility player early on. However, the Rangers outfield has holes and Jung and Corey Seager have risky injury profiles. I think he is a guy to watch.

11:01
Dave H: Lots of talk about new rules causing a big increase in SB volume in 2023. If this comes to fruition, do you think this will result mostly in the “runners” stealing more (ie. Acuna steals 40 instead of 30), or do you think moreso we’ll see “non-runners” steal noticeably more (ie. Cronenworth steals 13 instead of 5)? Or am I overthinking it and it’s just both to the same degree? Thx Justin

11:03
Justin Mason: I think it is the middle guys that typically steal 5-10 bumping it up. I also think it happens more for different teams than others. Guys in Colorado, Detroit, and Minnesota are not going to just start running more because of the rules because those teams don’t like to push it on the base paths, but teams like Texas, Cubs, Cleveland, and Arizona could get bigger bumps. Ultimately, we don’t even know how it will play out. I think spring will be a good time to watch and see if certain guys are taking off more.

11:04
Travioli: How worried should I be about Tatis’ checkered injury history? A lot has been off field but I admit I have thought about trying to cash him in for haul in my dynasty league

11:04
Justin Mason: I am a bit worried. The upside is huge so I wouldn’t sell him for a percentage of his worth, but if I got a market deal, I might make that.

11:04
Andy: How is your Ottoneu experience going?

11:05
Justin Mason: It is going ok. Still feel like a fish out of water, but it is fun co-managing the team to take some of the pressure off.

11:07
Justin Mason: Ok, I am running out of time, so I will do a rapid fire segment

11:07
Hebrew: Question 1: Does Kodai Senga thrive as a SP or is he a setup man within 3 years?

Question 2: Same question, but this time with Aaron Ashby

11:07
Justin Mason: 1) I think he is a starter, but one that is up and down.

11:07
Justin Mason: 2) I think he ends up being a really good reliever.

11:07
Guest: Thoughts on a Christian Walker repeat?

11:08
Justin Mason: I think he can keep a lot of the gains from last year, but takes a small step back.

11:08
CheeseLouise: I think Cron is getting overlooked. Owned him last year and he was a monster in the first half before being hit on the wrist with a HBP on July 8. After the ASB his ISO tanked in August to .129. He has a career .249 ISO, his first half ISO was .254, second half .144. Could he have been playing hurt in the second half and is there a way to prove/disprove this theory? Thanks!

11:08
Justin Mason: I think he is a guy that is great at home and bad on the road like a lot of Rockies. In leagues where you can optimize that, he is really underrated.

11:09
Justin Mason: Daily moves, bestball and NFBC are the places you can optimize him the best

11:09
Craig: Do you see Graham Ashcroft as a potential breakout in CIN? Derek Johnson has had success with under 26 year old starters such as Luis Castillo, Freddy Peralta, Tyler Mahle, Zach Davies, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Woodruff, Hunter Greene… could Ashcroft be “next”?

11:09
Justin Mason: Probably not

11:09
Nittanchris: Is Anthony Rendon a potential value opportunity? It wasn’t all that long ago that he was considered one of the best pure hitters in the game. He’s also just 32 years old.

11:09
Justin Mason: I don’t really know what he will be after missing so much time. Could be a value or be washed.

11:10
Craig: Any of the SP in COL worth a look for an NL-only league? Rolison? Gomber? Others?

11:10
Justin Mason: Nope lol

11:10
Craig: Do you have Bailey Falter optimism coming into this season? 3.38 ERA over last 11 GS. Opponent SLG% dropped from .559 in 1H to .434 in 2H of the season. Certainly was more effective as a SP than a RP.

11:11
Justin Mason: I think he gets first shot, but he got really lucky with the schedule and Painter is waiting in the wings. Any missteps and he could be out of the rotation.

11:11
Guest: Around what spot in the draft would you start looking at Trevor Story in a keep forever league that has a good amount of IL spots?

11:11
Justin Mason: Where ever the halfway point of your draft is.

11:11
Tim: Is Triston Casas Joey Votto or Bobby Dalbec?

11:11
Justin Mason: Neither.

11:12
Guest: 14 Team ROTO Keeper league- keep 7- Who would you choose between Jeremy Pena, SS, Hou and Matt Chapman 3B Tor?

11:12
Justin Mason: Pena

11:12
Maris9: NL only league. Same unit price. Who would you keep — Darvish or Musgrove?

11:12
Justin Mason: Musgrove

11:12
Rangers: Does Heaney hit 150 ip?

11:12
Justin Mason: Probably not

11:12
Lorenzo: % chance Tommy Pham carves out a big enough role where he becomes waiver wire worthy at some point this season?  Perhaps some OF injury gives him a path.  Looks like the DH vs LHP for now unless Canha struggles.

11:12
Justin Mason: 30%

11:12
Chewy: What Detroit OF should I take a flyer on?  Baddoo or Carpenter?

11:12
Justin Mason: Carpenter

11:12
Tim: Keeper question: Vinnie P at 25 or T Casas at 5?

11:12
Justin Mason: Vinnie P

11:12
Paddy: First time in NFC draft and hold (12 teams, 50 picks). How do you allocate your bench spots? Specifically, how many back up catchers, SPs, RPs?

11:13
Justin Mason: 4 catchers total. 14 SPs and 7 RPs total. I have a Draft and Hold Primer coming out on Fantasy Pros today or tomorrow I believe.

11:13
Ryan: Besides Vinnie, what young 1B do you like?

11:14
Justin Mason: Miranda, Vargas, Casas, Torkelson, Mervis, MAnzardo

11:14
Seattle Surf: Calling it now. Rodriguez goes 40/40.

11:14
Justin Mason: I would love to see it

11:14
Matt: What would you use as position priority in an 8-teamer? I’m going all over the place this year.

11:15
Justin Mason: In an eight team league, don’t worry about positions as much as just loading up on talent.

11:15
angles in the outfield: Any read on how Jared Walsh will come back from thoracic outlet surgery this season? Can’t find a lot of precedence for hitter performance returning from this kind of procedure..

11:16
Justin Mason: He had an interview that where he said that he is not quite 100%. Add that to the Angels moves this offseason and I am not encouraged by him. He is off my board right now.

11:16
Chas: What do you think of taking Judge 1-1 in a H2H league, 6×6 with OBP and SLG as separate categories?

11:16
Justin Mason: I wouldn’t do it but it is not crazy.

11:16
Kingdome: Do you think Andres Munoz becomes the closer in Seattle this year? Thanks

11:17
Justin Mason: I don’t think is “the closer” but I think he does get a lot of saves, but this is likely a committee in Seattle.

11:17
Justin Mason: Thanks for chatting with me! please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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