Outfield ADP Market Report: 2/11/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Dalton Varsho (+7.89)- See the article in this series on catchers. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Teoscar Hernandez (-9.37)- I am a little surprised that Hernandez is falling because usually a guy that is traded ends up rising just because his name is in the news. He also is going more than a round later than he did last year. I know the park change isn’t great, but the team around him is still good and I don’t think the park will hurt him much. I am fine buying in on the discount. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Seiya Suzuki (+11.65)- This one is kind of a bummer for me. I have had Suzuki on my “sleeper” list for quite a while, but he continues to rise as a lot of people see what I see. He struggled early on, but finished the year very well as he adjusted to the Majors. He should be able to carry a lot of that over to 2023 and even with the rising ADP, I am still much higher than consensus on him. 

Jake McCarthy (+10.71)- I am a little surprised to see McCarthy continue to rise, but he legitimately won people’s fantasy leagues in the second half. With Varsho no longer on the team, it looks like his playing time is a bit more secure than initially thought as well. That being said, I do worry if he struggles that he could lose that playing time as the Diamondbacks have a number of options in the majors and minors. 

Brandon Nimmo (+11.88)- Nimmo is rising after signing a big, long term deal in New York. I really struggle with this because while I have liked Nimmo in the past, it was because he was often really cheap, but now I feel like he is being overdrafted. He has only played in 100+ games in two seasons and I worry about his ability to stay on the field. I also don’t love his home runs and stolen base upside. He feels like a runs and average play and the average part is too fluky to count on. 

Lars Nootbaar (+13.04)- Nootbaar was another name I had circled as a potential “sleeper” candidate as the season was wrapping up, but so has the rest of the market. I think he has a real opportunity to hit at the top of this lineup which is one of the best in baseball, but there is a lot of risk here and I worry about his price getting too expensive. He is not there, but he could get there especially if he has a big spring. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Kris Bryant (-13.07)- I am a little surprised to see Bryant fall as reports are good that he will be ready for spring training and usually just the fact he is healthy and playing in Colorado should boost his ADP. I do think the helium will come and I am ok with it in shallower formats where there is good replacement value on the wire. 

Oscar Gonzalez (-12.5)- Gonzalez is falling a little after being a riser on the last edition of this list. In 2022, he came up as kind of an unknown prospect and was fantastic, hitting .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and a stolen base while striking out less than 20% of the time. He surprisingly had a pretty decent zone contact and there clearly is a ton of power in the bat. However, he was one of the most aggressive hitters in baseball with the highest swing percentage among qualified hitters in the second half including a 49.9% o-swing (2nd in baseball) and a 14.3% swinging strike rate (13th). I worry that pitchers are going to adjust and he won’t be able to adjust back with his approach. He could definitely be this year’s Adolis Garcia where he outruns some of his red flags and becomes a bargain because too many people buy into them, but right now I am staying away unless the price continues to drop. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Andrew Benintendi (+30.23)- Benintendi is rising after signing in a really good situation with the Chicago White Sox. He will now hit at the top of a really good lineup that should be healthier this year. He has talked about that he will try and hit for more power now that he is in a more conducive park and the new rules may help him steal a few more bases as well. I don’t think his price will rise too much and I don’t think the price is out of line at this point. 

Gavin Lux (+16.56)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Masataka Yoshida (+102.2)- Yoshida is continuing to rise after signing to hit atop the Red Sox lineup. I think he will be very similar to teammate Alex Verdugo, but I also don’t know how he will translate to the Major Leagues and general life in the US. I tend to stay away from the international players in their first go around especially when I don’t think their upside is league winning, which I don’t for Yoshida. 

Esteury Ruiz (+92.63)- Ruiz is rising after being traded to Oakland where he goes from being on a good team, in a good park where he was blocked to a bad team in a bad park where he is not. Ruiz has an unreal stolen base upside. He stole 85 bases in the minors this year while hitting 16 home runs with a .332 average. The problem is he profiles as a guy who struggles to make contact and is potentially a AAAA type player. This is huge risk/reward. 

Wil Myers (+205.54)- Myers is rising after signing in Cincinnati and for good reason. He should play every day and the park is one of the best in baseball. The only problem is he is rising up so much that he now needs to produce. I still love the opportunity, but I am starting to get worried that he is pricing himself out of usefulness. 

Jesse Winker (+31.68)- Winker is moving up after being traded to Milwaukee. There are also good reports about his health which is encouraging. That being said, I have never been a Winker guy. I know the park is better for him, but he will still platoon and is a massive injury risk. At best he can be a four category producer because he doesn’t run, but he has limited upside in the categories that he does help in because he won’t be a full time player. 

Austin Meadows (+22.47)- Why is Meadows rising? I don’t really get it other than it may be a correction from a low early ADP. Meadows has a ton of talent, but a lot of the same concerns as Winker as a guy that is rarely healthy and platoon issues. I won’t be drafting Meadows very often this year just like I won’t be drafting Meadows. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Christopher Morel (-22.67)- I am not surprised to see Morel continue to drop considering the atrocious plate skills. Had he gotten enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter, he would have had the league’s worst zone contact rate and the third worst swinging strike rate. He had to run a .320 BABIP just in order to hit .235 which is not reassuring. There is power and speed there which if he does learn to make contact could make me look silly, but he could easily find himself as a utility player or in the minor leagues. 

 

Others of Note

Trent Grisham (-36.92)- Grisham is a former darling of the fantasy industry that has struggled to the point that it seems like people are giving up on him. I know that he has some real platoon issues, but there is also some really nice mix of power and speed and if he can get back to the contact skills in 2021, he might actually end up being a steal. 

Jose Siri (+20.81)- Siri is becoming a popular target for late speed that isn’t pop-less. He also plays fantastic defense which could help him stay in the lineup in Tampa Bay. However, he really struggles with contact. He has a career 76% zone contact and 40% o-swing. While I think he will get some rope, unless he improves the approach and contact, he will lose playing time.