We’ve had about a month to digest the Swing Timing and Miss Distance Leaderboards on Baseball Savant. Like with any new metric, there’s probably some noteworthy information and some noise. Let’s by looking at league averages across as a starting point. Here are the the league averages for these metrics across all pitches:

• Average Miss Distance: 2.67 inches
• Flawed Percentage: 7.5%
• Perfect Contact Percentage: 22.6%
• Tied Up Percentage: 8.8%
• Flailed Percentage: 26.3%
• Early Percentage: 21.8%
• Late Percentage: 14.1%

That will provide context for each metric as we dig into specific pitch types, in the table below. Forkballs, splitters, changeups, and breaking pitches (sliders, curves, slurves, sweepers) tend to lead to a higher average miss distance. Meanwhile, the fastball types (cutters, sinkers, four-seamers) generate misses of roughly two or fewer inches. 

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Earlier in the week, we examined several pitchers who have been pitching better than their SIERA suggests. We’re following that up with pitchers who have been struggling and underperforming their SIERA this season.

The visual below shows the pitchers who ranked in the top 25 among pitchers who have underperformed their SIERA.

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Two of the best predictors of future pitcher success – K-BB% and SIERA – tend to correlate well with each other. So when you see a pitcher outperforming their SIERA while posting a low K-BB%, you have good reason to expect regression.

The visual below shows pitchers with 50 innings sorted by the largest difference in their ERA minus SIERA.

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We’ve covered several rookie-eligible starting pitchers and hitters throughout the past few months. Now, we’re examining five more rookies with small samples and tools. When we say tools, we’re usually talking about power and speed. As usual, we’ll provide recommendations for keeper or dynasty leagues based on the current data. 

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Ret of season projections are a great way to identify players likely to perform better moving forward. The table below shows all the starting pitchers whose rest of season OOPSY-projected ERA is 3.80 or better (as compared to a league average of 4.19) and at lest 0.20 better than what they have shown so far this year (through June 22).

We’ll likely follow this up with another version looking at potential fallers based on the OOPSY projections. Today, we’ll highlight four starting pitchers that should perform better based on their skills and stuff for the rest of the season.

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We’ve been doing rookie check-ins for hitters and pitchers lately. The most recent rookie hitter check-ins are found here, with an examination of a few other starting pitchers. Rookies have been making an impact on our fantasy squads, and many are deserving of more attention. In this week’s rookie check-in, we’re shifting back to starting pitchers. One starting pitcher has some name value to jump on. Meanwhile, a few others might be undervalued in deeper leagues. We’ll examine these four rookie starting pitchers to figure out whether to buy, sell, or hold them in keeper and dynasty formats.

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Last week, we examined a few starting pitchers who gained stuff and command in May and June. This time, we’re looking at starting pitchers who lost stuff and command since May 1. Pitchers can go through stretches of gaining and losing stuff and command, with these metrics fluctuating over time. The visual below shows the pitchers who lost two points in their Stuff+ and Location+ since May 1.

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It’s been a few weeks since we covered several rookie hitters. Rookies have been making a significant impact on the fantasy baseball landscape from a pitching and hitting standpoint. Several rookie hitters and pitchers have been starting in fantasy lineups instead of simply being stash candidates. These rookie hitters have name value, so they could be possible candidates to buy, sell, or hold based on their underlying metrics, skills, playing time, and peak projections. Read the rest of this entry »

In a previous article, we looked at starting pitchers who improved or lost their stuff and command over the past two seasons. This time, we’re examining starting pitchers that gained stuff and command in May and June compared to April to identify small sample changes. Sometimes a pitcher’s stuff and command improve closer toward the career averages. However, there can notable changes in a pitcher’s location and movement profiles that impact their stuff and command grades. This may be small sample noise, but it can also represent a change. Fantasy leagues can be won by being an early mover on a player who is breaking out. We’ll examine a few starting pitchers who made improvements in their stuff and command since May 1.

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We’re following up on last week’s article covering a few rookie starting pitchers. This feels like an outlier season with so many rookies making positive impacts on our fantasy baseball lineups. We’ll examine four more rookie-eligible starting pitchers, including a pair of teammates.  We’ll continue examining rookies throughout the season, including advice on whether to buy, sell, or hold in keeper and dynasty formats.

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