Can These Starting Pitchers Sustain Their Success From the First to Second Half?

Let’s look at starting pitchers who have been performing well in the first half. The average draft position data comes from 12-team leagues in NFBC formats. Meanwhile, the dollar value is the earned value via the FanGraphs Player Rater data. The visual below shows the top 25 starting pitchers sorted by earned value in the first half, including their draft price and results.

While 10 of these 25 pitchers come from outside the top 150 in ADP, today we’ll examine some of the more highly drafted starting pitchers on this list to identify whether they’ll continue their success for the second half, or might be sell high candidates.

Dylan Cease, SP, Blue Jays

ADP: 74.8 (SP19)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $18 (SP13)

Cease was a target of mine because I’m a sucker for stuff and strikeout skills. He boasts a career-best 25.9% K-BB%, up from his career average (19.2%). Cease’s BABIP is close to his career norm, but he is stranding more runners this season (77.6%), over five points above his career average. Breakout seasons occur when luck and skills overlap.

Cease’s 37.6% ball rate is nearly identical to his career ball rate (38%). That said, Cease maintained his elite swinging-strike rate (15%), similar to the career norm (14.2%). Cease’s 108 Stuff+ this season aligned with his career norm (107 Stuff+). However, Cease’s 117 Stuff+ via the four-seamer jumped by over 10 points from 2025 (106 Stuff+). The four-seamer movement profile in 2026 looks similar to 2025, with his near-elite 18.6 inches of induced vertical break while throwing from a higher arm angle (53 degrees). 

After a Location+ at 101 (2025) and 104 (2024), Cease’s command (98) (2026) dropped this season. Specifically, Cease’s sinker (96 Location+) and changeup (95 Location+) declined significantly from his career averages. For context, Cease’s sinker had a 100 Location+ with the changeup at 104 throughout his career. 

Last season, Cease was messing around with his changeup, throwing them 2.3% of the time to left-handed hitters. However, Cease bumped up his changeup usage against lefties (18.8% in 2026) and the pitch is inducing weak contact (.183 wOBA, .214 xwOBA) and whiffs (19.9% swinging-strike rate). Cease’s doesn’t have an above-average movement profile, but he has been throwing it harder (83.3 mph), and locating it toward the outside of the plate to left-handed hitters. 

Cease has been throwing more sinkers to right-handed hitters, increasing the usage to 14.2% this season, up from 5.7% (2025). He throws that pitch low and inside to right-handed hitters, generating positive results (.216 wOBA), though his .348 xwOBA suggests regression. Cease’s sinker induces a 53.8% groundball rate, as he intends to jam right-handed hitters as a pitch-to-contact offering, allowing an 87.1% contact rate. For context, Cease’s four-seam (74% contact rate) is the only other pitch in his arsenal with a contact rate above 70%. 

Cease has been earning the outcomes, even with some luck in his favor. While you can see some potential for regression towards his draft value, rather than his first-half value, the evolution of his change-up and pitch mix is intriguing. There is enough there to believe he should be able to sustain his success from the first half into the second half. 

Chase Burns, SP, Reds

ADP: 109.7 (SP25)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $21.5 (SP6)

Burns struggled as a rookie in 2025, but flashed an elite 27.1% K-BB%. Although his K-BB% regressed to 19.6%, BABIP (.264) and strand rate (87.4%) shifted in his favor. That indicates Burns’s skills and luck factors have aligned to drive his strong first half. 

Burns boasts a 113 Stuff+ this season, slightly down from 2025 (116 Stuff+). He continues to show decent command, with a 100 Location+ in 2026, down from a 104 Location+ in 2025. For context, Burns’s four-seam (101) dropped by seven points in Location+, with a significant decline in his changeup (96 down from 110 location+) command, as well. That’s a big drop in a pitch that accounts of 9% of his arsenal against left-handed hitters.

But that change is definitely a third pitch – 94% of his pitches are either his four-seamer or slider. The slider has been effective against lefties, allowing a .182 wOBA (.159 xwOBA) and generating a 27.9% swinging-strike rate. He has been throwing his slider over 2.5 inches lower (2.64) in the zone this season against lefties. 

Burns’s 3.16 xERA is the most optimistic ERA indicator, though his 3.58 SIERA and 3.59 xFIP are both strong. Even if he regresses towards those ERA estimators, don’t sell high on Burns because there’s enough skill, stuff, and command to be one of the top young starting pitchers in the game. 

Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies

ADP: 110.5 (SP26)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $27.6 (SP3)

Wheeler’s thoracic outlet decompression surgery in late September made many (including me) skeptical about how would recover and whether he could pitch like he had in the past. The joke is on me for being skeptical because Wheeler is pitching like an ace. 

Wheeler’s 24.2% K-BB%, 13.1% swinging-strike rate, and a 2.98 SIERA are all better than his career averages. For context, Wheeler has a 19% K-BB%, 11.6% swinging-strike rate, and a 3.59 SIERA throughout his career.

After three straight seasons with a Stuff+ grade at 110 or higher, Wheeler’s 104 Stuff+ this season is below his career norm (113). Wheeler’s four-seamer (112) and sinker (109) Stuff+ fell by five points this season. Meanwhile, Wheeler’s slider 104 Stuff+ is 10 points below 2025 (114 Stuff+). Wheeler’s four-seam and sinker movement profiles have shifted by 1-2 inches, so there’s a good chance the Stuff+ grades move closer to his recent seasons. Regardless, even with slightly decreased stuff+ grades, Wheeler still has two high-end fastballs. 

Interestingly, Wheeler’s sweeper Stuff+ grade is lower. The sweeper is over 2 mph slower, dropping over six inches more, and getting four more inches of glove-side movement this season. That further aligns with Wheeler’s sweeper spin rate, which is up over 100 RPM this season. From the movement profile alone, the sweeper looks like a nasty pitch, especially to right-handed hitters. 

Wheeler often throws his sweeper low and away from right-handed hitters, leading to weak contact (.207 wOBA, .140 xwOBA) and whiffs (18.9% swinging-strike rate). He tosses the sweeper 28.4% of the time against right-handed hitters and small increase from 2025 (26.2%) and a continuation of it’s increased usage since 2024 (22.6%). The sinker (33.7%), four-seam (31%), and sweeper account for over 93% of his arsenal against right-handed hitters. 

He is making a slight adjustment to his pitch mix against lefties by throwing fewer four-seamers (38.6%) and more splitters (20%). It’s the lowest four-seam usage against lefties since 2019. Meanwhile, Wheeler increased his splitter usage to 20%, up 8-9 percentage points compared to 2025 (11.4%) and 2024 (10.6%) versus left-handed hitters. Like the sweeper, the splitter allows weak contact (.250 wOBA, .266 xwOBA) and generates an arsenal’s best 23.7% swinging-strike rate.

The Phillies pitching staff has allowed the highest BABIP (.319) in the majors. However, Wheeler’s .239 BABIP would be the lowest in his career, with an 88.7% strand rate would be the highest. That suggests Wheeler has been fortunate, but his strong track record can lend itself to these peak outcomes. Wheeler’s skills support the results, so he should be able to sustain the strong numbers into the second half, even if the BABIP and strand rate regress slightly. 

Jacob Misiorowski, SP, Brewers

ADP: 114.1 (SP30)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $43.3 (SP1)

The term league winner will be thrown around for Misiorowski. It’s hard to imagine fantasy teams struggling with Misiorowski on their rosters. He is breaking the game with his average fastball velocity as a starting pitcher over 100 mph, a 33.2% K-BB%, and a 17.2% swinging-strike rate. Since 2021, Misiorowski has had the highest K-BB%, second-highest swinging-strike rate (behind Spencer Strider’s 18.9% in 2023), and the best SIERA (2.19) among qualified pitchers. Furthermore, Misiorowski’s average fastball velocity is over two mph faster than Paul Skenes (98.2 mph in 2025).

The visual below shows the qualified pitching leaders sorted by K-BB% since 2021.

Somehow, Misiorowski’s stuff has been even better (127 Stuff+) this season than in 2025 (116 Stuff+), with improvements via the four-seamer (131), slider (119), and curveball (130). Without overanalyzing Misiorowski because we know he is hashtag elite, we’ll touch on whether he can sustain his success into the second half. The main arsenal change for Misiorowski is adding a cutter, throwing it 12.1% of the time to righties and 14.8% to left-handed hitters. 

He cut his slider usage in half (16.8%) against right-handed hitters, with a 10-point dip to 5.3% against lefties. Adding a cutter while throwing a bullet gyro-like slider makes Misiorowski tougher to square up. The cutter drops five inches fewer with over one inch less of glove-side movement than the slider. Misiorowski’s cutter has been relatively effective against righties (.250 wOBA, .323 xwOBA), though the slider outcomes improved (.193 wOBA, .231 xwOBA), aligning with our guess that both pitches are helping each other. Meanwhile, Misiorowski’s cutter has allowed one hit against lefties, leading to a .093 wOBA (.118 xwOBA) this season. 

Misiorowski has already thrown a career-high in innings (111) this season in the first half. However, he totaled 129 innings in 2025 across the majors and Triple-A and 97 in 2024. Someone asked me about Misiorowski’s innings expectations moving forward. Most projection systems have Misiorowski throwing around 70 more innings. The Brewers have already had Misiorowski miss his start on Sunday before the All-Star break, likely as one way to maintain his health for the stretch run. 

Misiorowski has been performing like an elite starting pitcher, with the skills, stuff, and command to support his results. If Misiorowski finishes the season strong, he will be drafted as a first-round pick in 2027.

Cam Schlittler, SP, Yankees

ADP: 116.6 (SP31)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $30.8 (SP2)

Admittedly, I was worried about Schlittler’s arsenal against left-handed hitters coming into the season. That has blown up in my face. Jack Martin wrote a wonderful article covering pitchers who use multiple fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter), highlighting Schlittler. For context, I had similar concerns about Bryan Woo’s similar approach, but there’s something valuable here with these pitchers using three fastballs, especially if they command them well.

Schlittler improved his walk rate, supported by his 32.3% ball rate this season, nearly two points better than in 2025 (34.2%). He improved his command, as seen in his 105 Location+ this year, up from a 98 Location+ last season. The most notable command improvements came via two of those fastballs: his four-seamer (105 Location+) and cutter (108 Location+). For context, Schlittler had a 98 Location+ via the four-seam and a 96 Location+ from the cutter last year.

Schlittler has been throwing his four-seamer less often in the zone (50.7%), down from 58% (2025). That works well given opposing hitters are chasing the pitch 40% of the time with an arsenal-best 16.3% swinging-strike rate. He has been locating the four-seamer slightly higher and above the zone, leading to those chases. Schlittler’s four-seamer continues to generate weak contact to righties (.204 wOBA, .202 xwOBA) and lefties (.260 wOBA, .273 xwOBA). 

The cutter looks different. He throws the cutter 2.5 mph faster than last year which has led to the cutter dropping significantly less (seven inches). From a location standpoint, Schlittler is commanding his cutter higher in the zone against left-handed hitters. Specifically, Schlittler is throwing his cutter 4.7 inches higher in the zone against lefties, instead of being more in the heart of the plate last year. Unsurprisingly, Schlittler’s cutter has been performing better against left-handed hitters with a .244 wOBA (.276 xwOBA), much better than in 2025 (.367 wOBA, .390 xwOBA).

Schlittler’s ERA estimators (3.00 xERA, 3.04 xFIO, 3.06 SIERA) all expect regression closer to 3.00, however, like other pitchers in this article, Schlittler’s skills and stuff support high-end outcomes. Like Misiorowski, Schlittler will probably be a first-round pick in redraft leagues next season if he keeps this up, as he should.