Starting Pitchers Drafted in the Later Rounds: Can They Sustain Their Success?

We covered some of the best starting pitchers earlier in the week. Now, we’re covering the best starting pitchers with an average draft position (ADP) outside the top 150 picks in 12-team leagues. These pitchers have been performing better than the draft community expected.

The visual below shows the starting pitchers who have been drafted outside the top 150 picks in 12-team leagues, sorted by their earned value in the first half. If a player has a blank ADP, that means they were undrafted. 

Though Foster Griffin tops the list, I’ve already examined him in a rookie check-in article in mid-June. Kyle Harrison has been helping to win leagues, though he is on the injured list with a forearm injury. We would love to examine more of these starting pitchers (and maybe we will), but today we’ll highlight five.

Max Meyer, SP, Marlins

ADP: 281.5 (SP66)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $19 (SP11)

Luck has been in Meyer’s favor with a .259 BABIP and 80.6% strand rate this season. Meyer has thrown a career-high in innings (108), with a BABIP that’s 30 points better and a strand rate that’s five points higher than his career norms. With a lower BABIP, Meyer’s WHIP has improved. But it is not all luck, as he has also he maintained his strong 17.5% K-BB%. 

Meyer’s biggest change is throwing his sweeper significantly more often. His sweeper leads his arsenal against right-handed hitters (29.9%) and left-handed hitters (30.7%). He used to throw a hard, gyro-like slider most often against both sides of the plate. That change has been beneficial because Meyer commands the sweeper well (111 Location+). 

I hypothesize that there’s value in pitchers using two different types of pitches that fall into similar movement-profile buckets. Examples would be cutters and gyro-like sliders, sliders and sweepers, and sinkers and changeups. That can be further evident when one or both of those pitches fare well against both sides of the plate, as we’re seeing in Meyer’s arsenal. 

Often, sliders and sweepers fare well against same-handed hitters. And Meyer’s sweeper is only allowing a .230 wOBA (.279 xwOBA) while eliciting a 15.4% swinging-strike rate against right-handed hitters. Meyer’s slider similarly allows weak contact (.234 wOBA, .229 xwOBA) and whiffs (22.6% swinging-strike rate) versus righties. 

Thankfully, the results against Meyer’s sweeper against lefties have improved this season (.261 wOBA, .243 xwOBA). That’s a big gain in his primary offering after a .829 wOBA (.673 xwOBA) last year, though it was a small sample of sweepers last season. This year, Meyer has been locating the sweepers low and inside against lefties, after sitting higher and more often in the zone last year. In the heatmaps below, you’ll see Meyer’s sweeper being pounded low and inside the lefties, causing some problems.

Meyer’s four-seam, sweeper, sinker, and slider have above-average movement profiles. So, it’s surprising to see Meyer’s 97 Stuff+ overall with the slider as the only pitch with a Stuff+ at 100. Since Meyer commands his pitches well with a 106 Location+, I believe there could be an upside scenario with slightly better stuff and strikeout skills as another step forward.

The expected ERA metrics expect regression, especially if he allows more home runs again. However, Meyer’s 3.79 xERA aligns with his 3.74 xFIP, suggesting the changes in his arsenal help him limit weak contact. I was a believer before the season on Meyer as a sleeper starting pitcher, so there is some confirmation bias in my positive review, but it looks like the pitch mix change has been fruitful for him.

Justin Wrobleski, SP, Dodgers

ADP: 650.4 (SP99)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $17.8 (SP14)

I wrote about Wrobleski as a pitcher who has been outperforming his SIERA in late June. So, we won’t dig too deep. Let’s examine a small sample of fun. In May, Wrobleski had a 15.3% K-BB%, which remained similar in June (16.5%). He had one start in July, with a 25% K-BB%. If Wrobleski maintains a 15-16% K-BB%, we’ll have slightly more confidence in the sustainability.

Wrobleski has high-end command with a 111 Location+, including three pitches at 113 or higher (four-seam, sinker, and curveball). Though Wrobleski pitched mainly as a reliever last season, he flashed high-end Stuff+ grades via his four-seamer and slider. There’s a chance Wrobleski can command his pitches well with league-average stuff, raising his floor and strikeout upside.

Expect ratio regression, but Wrobleski’s high-end command can outpitch the expected ERA metrics.

Parker Messick, SP, Guardians

ADP: 294.2 (SP70)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $17.7 (SP15)

In late May, I wrote about Messick for a rookie starting pitcher check-in. I found myself optimistic, seeing a player that could be undervalued as a buy high in keeper or dynasty leagues. Since June 1, Messick has set a career-high in strikeouts (10) while posting a 3.59 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP across seven starts. Messick’s 12.1% K-BB%, 95 Stuff+, and 103 Location+ might not wow us, but his overall profile looks solid as a pitcher that relies on command.

Since June, Messick has been throwing more four-seamers, with 37.5% in June and 46.1% in two July starts. Messick has been consistently commanding the four-seamer well since June (109 Location+), aligning with his season-long average (110 Location+). Interestingly, Messick is tossing fewer changeups from 26.2% (May) to 23.3% (June) and 20.4% (July). That’s notable because Messick’s changeup is his best pitch, with a 20% swinging-strike rate.

Pitch mix is something that fluctuates as the season progresses, but it would make sense to use his best pitch more often. After introducing the cutter this season, Messick has been ditching them recently. Not a surprise since right-handed hitters have been crushing it (.485 wOBA), though the .329 xwOBA provides optimism.

No, Messick likely isn’t a top-20 starting pitcher. However, he tends to limit hard contact, given his 3.24 xERA and commands his pitches relatively well. We’ve seen the Guardians help Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams evolve, so don’t be surprised if that happens with Messick.

Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pirates

ADP: 239.4 (SP68)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $14.1 (SP24)

If we threw out a bold prediction that Ashcraft would earn similar value to Paul Skenes ($15.6, SP18) in the first half, some might have laughed. However, there’s a lot to like in Ashcraft’s profile. He boasts a 21.9% K-BB%, 13.2% swinging-strike rate, and a 31% ball rate this season. That translates to a 3.25 SIERA and 3.29 xERA, slightly better than his actual numbers (3.49 ERA).

Aschraft has shown a five-point increase in his K-BB% and a one-point jump in swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, Ashcraft maintained his above-average stuff (106 Stuff+) with better command (106 Location+). We highlighted Ashcraft adding a splitter this season in an early-June article about starting pitchers that gained stuff and command.

Though the splitter is a new addition that he commands well, it elicits a lowly 3.7% swinging-strike rate and allows hard contact (.366 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. That might leave Ashcraft vulnerable against lefties, especially since his curveball is the only pitch with a wOBA below .340, given the .135 wOBA (.200 xwOBA). However, Ashcraft has been leaning into more four-seamers and curveballs against lefties in June and July, as seen below.

It makes sense because he throws a four-seamer (35.5%), curveball (30.3%), and slider (17.9%) against left-handed hitters for over 83% of his arsenal. Sometimes, pitchers relying on the breaking pitches can have platoon issues. He continues to command his fastballs (four-seamer and sinker), sliders, and splitters, all with a Location+ of 104 or higher.

Ashcraft probably needs to throw the splitter less often and lower in the zone, with a 46.3% zone rate. Opposing hitters have been doing damage against the splitter since he leaves low in the zone for lefties. That might be easier said than done, and something Ashcraft addresses next season.

In trading leagues, I would be buying high on Ashcraft as a reliable option. He can sustain the success as a top-25 starting pitcher who could flirt with SP1 upside. I would value Ashcraft highest among the starting pitchers in this article.

Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners

ADP: 341.6 (SP77)

First-Half Fantasy Value: $13 (SP24)

After dealing with bone spurs in his right elbow and having a left oblique injury before the season, Miller’s injury risk had me concerned. With those injury concerns, Miller has been throwing a harder four-seamer (+1.5 mph) this season. However, alarm bells went off after Miller’s four-seamer and sinker were thrown at 96 mph earlier in the season, which dropped by 1-2 mph in two July starts.

For context, Miller’s fastball velocity in July is closer to his monthly averages as seen above. Given Miller’s increased four-seamer velocity, his 110 Stuff+ is up five points compared to last season. Furthermore, Miller’s four-seam command skyrocketed to a career-best (118 Location+). Among starting pitchers with 50 innings pitched, Miller’s four-seam Location+ is tied for second with Patrick Corbin, Wrobleski, and Emerson Hancock behind Kyle Harrison (121 Location+).

The visual below shows the pitchers with a Location+ at 110 or higher on the four-seamer with a minimum of 50 innings:

Though Miller only throws his cutter 5.5% of the time, it’s a different pitch. The cutter is dropping two inches more and sweeping by over three inches toward his glove side, giving it an above-average movement profile. Miller has been commanding the cutter significantly better with a 114 Location+, up from an 86 Location+ in his career.

The heatmaps show Miller peppering the cutter high and toward the outside corner consistently against right-handed hitters (.511 wOBA, .532 xwOBA), though it tends to perform better against lefties (.140 wOBA, .231 xwOBA). Specifically, Miller locates his cutter low and inside to lefties as an attempt to generate weak contact. We could be overexamining the cutter, but it’s different in a good way across a small sample.

I have major FOMO with Miller because of his near-elite skills this season, evidenced by a 26% K-BB%, 13.8% swinging-strike rate, 109 Stuff+, and a 112 Location+. There’s a chance he rises on the Player Rater if he stays healthy because those are ace-like skills for Miller so far this season (57.2 innings). That might present an opportunity to sell high if you’re worried about injuries cropping up and the velocity dip. However, this is the type of pitcher that I recommend riding out because of the breakout skills, stuff, and command.