DFS Pitching Preview: August 31, 2022

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

This is a mid-sized slate where we’re gonna have a really tight pitcher pool. The mix of Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, a couple of passable guys, and a couple of ‘just a guy’ guys create this dynamic.

On FanDuel, where we only play one pitcher and bats are generally affordable, we don’t have to look further than deGrom and Cole, but there’s a viable pivot if we really need the money in Lance Lynn.

On DraftKings, where we have to play two pitchers, there is a pitcher in each salary tier that we can use, but sticking to a narrow pool of deGrom, Cole, and Lynn, while differentiating with bats is totally fine.

The ‘just a guy’ guys all have K/9 at or under 7.52, besides: Patrick Sandoval, who’s a lefty against the Yankees in a hitters’ park; Joe Ryan, who’s just kinda’ blah; and Bailey Falter, who’s might have a home run problem against a Diamondbacks crew that’s decent against lefties.

This is to say two things: (1) don’t overthink pitching and level yourself away from too much projection; and (2) diversify your bats and you won’t have to worry too much about ownership at pitcher.

That’s the abstract of this article. Reading on isn’t gonna unearth any more insight. The content is merely here to — hopefully — answer any questions that I left dangling.

ACES — deGrom and Cole

deGrom would normally be in a tier by himself. Even with Cole on the slate. And, though, deGrom is largely matchup-proof, dominating this slate in SIERA (1.64), K/9 (14.24), BB/9 (0.96), K-BB rate (41.9%), and HR/9 (0.59) since 2021, we can’t ignore the Dodgers.

The Dodgers projected lineup comes in with a near .200 ISO and only a 20.7% strikeout rate against righties. If we wanna talk matchup-proof, they might not mash deGrom, but they can put up three or four runs and limit the strikeouts against anyone.

Personally, I’m just playing deGrom because of that matchup-proofiness and the fact that his ownership isn’t projecting much higher than Cole. But there is a salary discount when going to “down” to Cole that we should factor in with deGrom’s matchup.

Cole doesn’t project much worse than deGrom. When we factor in the savings on both sites, that they’re basically under a strikeout apart, we can seriously entertain Cole as a pivot off of the deGrom. The strikeout matchup against the Angels is a huge variable — striking out 27.3% of the time against righties. Cole’s 11.42 K/9 is more than enough to get that extra striekout or two and, therefore, tip the scales in his favor.

I value an ownership discount over the salary discount when we’re nibbling at the edges like this, so I’m just gonna play deGrom in single-entry on both sites. If I’m looking to save in three-max or diversify in mass-multi-entry, I’ll reluctantly go down further in salary and ownership to Lynn.

SP2 — Lynn

Lynn is only pitcher to whom I’m considering spending down on FanDuel, so it’s deGrom, Cole, and Lynn over there. He’s scary as hell, but his 5.00 ERA is a curtain. Behind that curtain is a 3.26 SIERA, 9.66 K/9, and 1.51 BB/9. The homers have been disappointing, but the Royals suck. Their projected lineup has a .290 wOBA, a .130 ISO, and a 23.4% striekout rate against righties.

Lynn really should feast. Not just because of the matchup, but because the peripherals say that he’s pitching very well. Moreover, Lynn has gone 5.2-plus innings in his last seven starts — six innings in five of those seven. This is a great spot for a quality start with a low amount of baserunners. His ERA justifies the price, but the data and matchup say he’s too cheap.

Everyone sees this, so he’ll be owned, but deGrom and Colle will gobble up so much ownership and our pool is so tight that we can go overweight on Lynn

SPEND-UP SP2 — Wright

I’m not playing Kyle Wright, but I can see why you want to. The Rockies are downright horrendous against right-handed pitching, but they only come in with a 20.9% strikeout rate. While this is a great matchup for Wright to prevent runs, how many bats he misses is a toss-up, when he just misses a striekout-per-inning on average (this season and since 2021).

SPEND-DOWN SP2 — Kaprielian

I’m not playing James Kaprielian, either, but he’s cheap and totally viable on DraftKings. He strikes out no one, but he draws a Quad-A Nationals team (after Luke Voit and Nelson Cruz) at under $7k. The Nationals projected lineup only has a .274 wOBA, a .127 ISO, with a robust 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I like — don’t love Wright. I like — don’t love Kaprielian. I would much rather start Kaprielian than Wright because of what it can do for our lineups as a whole.

Again, this isn’t about picking the right pitcher(s). It’s about crafting the best lineups.