DFS Pitching Preview: September 9, 2022

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

There isn’t an obvious ace on this slate, so we have a complex jumble of, maybe, seven guys we can start on both sites. That said, the field tends to gravitate toward spreading ownership around when pitching is this complex. I’m gonna go so far as to say that ownership might not matter on this slate for pitching.

Today, we’ll look at those seven and a couple of cheap options in this space. On DraftKings, two of those top-seven are very affordable; but if you need savings, I still got you.

SP1s — Ray, McCullers, Giolito, Montas, Morton, Lodolo, and May

With the wealth of options at our disposal, we really don’t need to spend up for Robbie Ray against the Braves. His SIERA is climbing up near 4.00 and his K/9 is “down” to 10.19. The Braves had a stretch of striking out a ton, but their projected lineup only comes with a 20.3% striekout rate against left-handed pitching, amplifying Ray’s 2.95 BB/9. We know what Ray can be and it’s tempting to cling to that, but it’s harder to click that button for what he actually has been this season. If ownership were a thing, we could pince on Ray’s sub-teen projected ownership, but ownership shouldn’t be a thing.

Another guy I’m crossing off from the get-go is Dustin May. Like Ray, May isn’t a bad play. He just doesn’t measure up to the other options. May might be the best pitcher on the slate, though, but his projected pitch count is only around 75 pitches, there’s a tropical storm headed toward San Diego, and the Padres are a tough lineup, if the weather gives us a break. The volume won’t be there, as planned; add the weather and matchup concerns, and we just don’t have to go here.

In alphabetical order, the guys I’m actually looking to play are Lucas Giolito, Nick Lodolo, Lance McCullers, Frankie Montas, and Charlie Morton. But I’m unenthusiastic about all of them, despite them all having SIERAs under 4.00 with over a strikeout-per-inning.

Giolito has given up a ton of power this season for a good pitcher. His 5.21 ERA is a reflection of his 3.38 BB/9 and 1.56 HR/9. But he does draw the terrible Athletics, who have a .298 wOBA and .130 ISO against right-handed pitching in a great park for depressing power — Giolitio’s Achilles’ heel. The A’s don’t strike out a ton, but Giolito’s 9.95 K/9 with a long leash should allow him to compile the strikeouts. Of these seven, Giolito projects for the most points-per-dollar, as he’s pretty cheap on both sites.

Lodolo just keeps mowin’ ’em down. We only have a 73.0-inning sample on him, but his 11.22 K/9 leads the slate. Add that he’s facing a Brewers squad who strikes out a whopping 26.9% of the time against lefties and we might have the de facto ace of the slate. The downside is that he has 3.70 BB/9, but the Brewers lack the patience to exploit this. Having gone six-plus innings in three of his last four starts, we should trust the volume to make him a strong play on both sites.

The term “effectively wild” was made for McCullers. Since 2021, he has 10.03 K/9 to 4.40 BB/9, but only 0.68 HR/9. As a team, the Angels just don’t hit well. Their projected lineup only has a .297 wOBA and a .159 ISO, while gifting a strikeout pitcher like McCullers a 27.8% strikeout rate. This is one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball drawing, maybe, the best strikeout matchup in baseball. The concern with McCullers is that he won’t be economical with his 100-plus pitches. That could mean seven innings; that could mean 5.1. No one really knows, and therein lies the great gamble with him.

Montas has the best control of all of these pitchers. His 2.33 BB/9 is the only one of this bunch under Ray’s 2.95. He hasn’t gonna six innings more than two over his last nine starts, but those two have been over his last four. For this volume uncertainty, I’m out on the FanDuel, where we really need the six-plus innings at near $9k; and I’d be out on DraftKings were there a clear ace because his $9.7k tag is too much. But we’re limited in options and we’ll have to hold our nose and take a good pitcher in a rough matchup somewhere in MME play.

If I’m gonna take a good pitcher in a sketchy matchup, I’d rather take Morton, who is more likely to go six or seven innings. Montas’ matchup against the Rays carries a 22.0% strikeout rate against righties versus the 22.2% Morton draws against the Mariners, and the Rays’ .317 wOBA versus the Mariners’ .311 tell us that these matchups are pretty even. Montas projects slightly better, but I’m clicking the override button, as Morton can get more volume, has a lower SIERA, and a higher K/9.

On FanDuel, this is the pool right here. Salary is so easy to navigate that we don’t have to spend down. But we need spend-down options on DraftKings.

CHEAPER SP2s – Crickets…

I’m completely drawing a blank here. Sorry. I’m sticking to a few of those top-seven on both sites because it gets really bad after them.

Daniel Lynch is projecting well in Kansas City. He’s bad, though, and the Tigers are about average against left-handers. Joey Wentz is the bare minimum against the Royals in the same park; he just doesn’t project to be any damn good. I don’t like messing with the Phillies, but they do strike out a bunch, so Patrick Corbin isn’t the worst play $5.6k.

Yeah, it’s bad. Sorry again. On a slate without great pitching, stick with good pitching.