The Argument Against Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena is a good ballplayer. There’s no denying that. But we need those dingers and RBI and runs and rates for fantasy. Arozarena doesn’t have the rates for our purposes, doesn’t have the raw power to give us the ceiling, plays in a horrible ballpark for power, and will be in the middle of a weak lineup. These are too many red flags for him to be a top-13 outfielder.Arozarena’s .263 batting average in 2022 is fine, but he doesn’t have the big walk rate to boost his OBP where we need it. And even where we don’t score walks, getting on base is imperative toward scoring runs, says Captain Obvious.

The power from Arozarena is fine. He’ll get us 20 and a crap-ton of doubles. His .445 slugging percentage from last season is fine. 17th among outfielders is fine. But he’s at the bottom of the top-20 in average and slugging. That’s fine, but we’re paying a premium for him at number-11 among outfielders and the bottom of the top-40 overall.

But, wait! There’s more!

Tropicana Field is already a horrible place for hitting and his ballpark-neutral data says Arozarena overperformed in 2022.

Actual average: .263. Expected average: .234.

Actual slugging: .445. Expected slugging: .382

Actual wOBA: .336. Expected wOBA: .301.

Woof!

in the COVID-shortened 2020, Arozarena had a monstrous 14.3% barrel rate on 43 batted balls, but his 8.2% rate in 2021 and 7.9% in 2022 translates to an 8.3% career rate — which is probably gonna be pretty sticky, bringing us to batted balls.

Arozarena brought his strikeout rate down from 27.9% in 2019-21 to 24.2% in 2022. This is good for us because we need a high quantity of contact to make good on a barrel rate as low as his.

But we really need this guy to get the ball in the air and it just isn’t happening.

Arozarena’s career groundball/linedrive/flyout rates are all pretty consistent and they’re kinda gnarly:

33.0% flyball rate
17.1% linedrive rate

Wait for it…

49.9% groundball rate

To be fair, these numbers aren’t always bad. Juan Soto is an elite ballplayer. His rates are very similar (32.8/18.5/48.7), but Soto’s 48.0% hard hit rate and 12.3% barrel rates over his career tell us that to take on a batted ball profile like this, we need an elite hitter with great power. Something Arozarena is not.

Arozarena’s 41.4% hard hit rate needs to come up to make value on his ADP, and there’s just no sign of that happening.

Which is troubling at Tropicana. A ballpark that’s fourth-to-last in wOBA, 19th in home run, and 21st in double factor, according to EV Analytics. It’s a pitcher’s park. And it’s not a good team hitting in this park.

Yandy Diaz and Wander Franco will be hitting in front of Arozarena and we should have questions as to how often they get on base. Diaz had a .401 OBP in 2022, but .353 in 2020 and .364 from 2015-20. This is enough but projections are saying he’s more in the middle of .350 and .400 than a .400 guy.

Franco’s had flashes of brilliance and has nowhere else to go but to stay in MLB, as Triple-A is a tiny bug he squished. Franco’s hit an expected batting average of .285 — which is great — but the 10.3% walk rate he had in the minors isn’t translating well to MLB, where he only has a 7.7% walk rate.

These aren’t bad hitting to have in front of our guy, but there’s a wide range of outcomes for both to us to get plate appearances with men on base.

As for behind Arozarena, there’s the great power of Brandon Lowe and the solid-hitting Harold Ramirez to consider in leagues where we get credit for runs scored.

Lowe, a career .518 slugger coming into 2022, couldn’t stay on the field last year. Not being a speed guy, we should like him slashing closer to the .255/.341/.518 line than the .221/.308/.382 line from 266 plate appearances in 2022. This and his 13.6% career barrel rate is great for us.

Ramirez hit .300 last season. Great. He slugged .404 with a 4.8% barrel rate. Not great.

There is a lot to love about Arozarena in a vacuum, as a power-speed guy who’ll definitely hit between 20 and 25 home runs and steal 25-to-30 bases. But outfield is a position of giants. He’s currently 11th in ADP with a large gap between him and number-ten, Michael Harris II. But being drafted over Luis Robert Jr. and his similar ceiling with more power, Daulton Varsho and his catcher-eligibility with more power and lesser but decent speed, and Kyle Schwarber with his immense power and flashes of speed requires more power or better expected data.

Arozarena isn’t a guy we should fade. He’s certainly draftable. And I could reach for him in a categories league where I have Trea Turner. He’s just more of a 55th pick than a 40th pick under most roster constructions. The opportunity cost of drafting him over too many better players is too high at #40.