• Instead of waiting until the deadline to improve their bullpen, the Nationals went out and got Kelvin Herrera from the Royals for three minor leaguers. While Herrera was the closer for the Royals (and pitching quite well) he will likely be a setup man in Washington. However, with the lefty Sean Doolittle and now Herrera the Nationals could have a two-headed closing monster as they work towards October. Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler (when he’s back from injury), and the recently  dominant Justin Miller should all help as well in the setup innings.

As far as Kansas City’s new closer is concerned, the  names to consider are Kevin McCarthy, Brandon Maurer, Jason Adam,  Tim Hill, and Justin Grimm. In no particular order, let’s go through the options with a few indicators:

• Kevin McCarthy: 30.1 innings pitched, 3.86/3.49/3.38/3.31 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 15.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, previously used in the 10th, 7th, and 7th innings. Saved games in the minors.
• Brandon Maurer: Only 5.1 innings pitched, 13.5/12.65/5.96/4.77 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 17.9 K%, 10.7 BB%, previously used in the 8th and 8th innings. Closing at AAA this year and the previous two years in San Diego
• Jason Adam: 15.1 innings pitched, 4.70/7.26/4.73/3.53 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 25.0 K%, 6.3 BB%, previously used in the 9th on 6/13. No closing experience.
• Tim Hill: 21.1 innings pitched, 4.89/2.81/3.19/3.08, ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 24.2 K%, 8.4 BB%, previously used in the 8th/9th, 6th, and 8th. Saved games in the minors.
• Justin Grimm: 9.2 innings pitched, 16.76/7.44/7.10/6.57 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 13.7 K%, 19.6 BB%, previously used in the 7th, and 8th/9th.

Based on previous experience, Brandon Maurer would be the leading candidate for saves. Looking at production this year, Kevin McCarthy would be the likely candidate. But if one looked at strikeouts and a mixture of the other indicators, Jason Adam and Tim Hill could be in line as well which leads to a total free for all/committee until we see how it plays out.

If I had to rank them I would go McCarthy, Mauerer, Hill, Adam, Grimm but I don’t have much confidence in either that rank or anyone being a particularly good closer moving forward. The Royals are likely to get worse with additional trades so there won’t be too many save opportunities and none of the relievers mentioned, at least at this time, look like potential ace relievers either.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m very pleased I was the first to break yesterday’s stunning blockbuster trade. You know, the one between the Mets and Yankees.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. In Play, Run(s)

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I used my xBABIP equation to identify and discuss eight hitters who appear due for a BABIP surge. Today, I’ll check in on the other side of the ledger, those whose xBABIP marks are significantly below their actuals, suggesting serious downside.

Read the rest of this entry »

Bartolo Colon is a national treasure:

Bartolo Colon threw a 4-hit complete game for the Indians 5/26/2002. Raul Mondesi went 0-4 against him. 16 years later, Raul’s son Adalberto will face Colon tonight, which will be the 4th father/son combo to bat against Bartolo. More on this story during the game.

— Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc) June 18, 2018

Read the rest of this entry »

Remember Eno Sarris? Yeah, me neither. But I used to co-host the podcast with a guy who liked to talk about infield flyballs or pop-ups and their value for a pitcher. In essence, they are automatic outs. They almost never turn into hits and the rare times they yield a base runner is usually because of an error. Pop-ups are gold for pitchers. After years of thinking that pitchers had zero control once the ball left their hands, we now acknowledge the value of contact management for pitchers. Their arsenal and approach can improve their ability to induce poor, playable contact either on the ground or in the air.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m continuing to analyze the valuation changes for players who may be on the move at the trade deadline. I’m using MLBTraderumors.com’s list 50 players most likely to be traded. I’m going over #6 to #10 today.

#6 Wilson Ramos

While any team, besides the Astros and maybe the Dodgers, could use a decent second catcher. For this reason, Ramos isn’t likely headed to be the #1 guy for many of the top teams. While his new team’s offense may be better, the possible lost plate appearances will keep his value relatively constant.

Jesus Sucre gains the most fantasy value as he becomes the fulltime catcher. Sucre is nothing special but in AL-only leagues, the extra plate appearances help. As for the new backup catcher, either Adam Moore or Nick Ciuffo will likely get the call from Triple-A.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch, we take a look at a hitter from the Rays’ system, and pitchers from both the Diamondbacks’ and the Phillies’ systems.

Nick Solak, 2B/LF, Rays: Tampa Bay is starting to build up some impressive middle infield depth. Joey Wendle has been a decent stopgap at second base but he’s not really an everyday guy and is better suited to being a back-up on a playoff calibre team (which the Rays are not). Solak, who has spent parts of the last two seasons in double-A, is probably ready for the test of triple-A and should be considered the Rays’ second baseman of the future — unless he’s their left-fielder-of-the-future. The former Yankees’ prospect has shown the ability to get on base at an excellent rate (He currently has a .402 on-base average), he can hit for average and he’s showing increased pop. He currently has 10 home runs through 64 games after going deep just 12 times in 130 contests. Solak’s versatility is even more impressive, although he’s not the most gifted fielder at second base (but he has yet to make an error there this year in 32 appearances). He should be ready for full-time MLB duty in 2019.

Read the rest of this entry »

Wade Davis has been among the wildest relievers of 2018, but for the first two months of the season, it scarcely seemed to matter. He rolled into June having blown only two of his 20 save opportunities, and he sported a 2.35 ERA. Even at Coors Field, Davis had overcome his wildness, holding opponents to a .276 wOBA with only two extra-base hits (one homer and one double) allowed over 9.2 innings.

The Rockies’ closer has been largely successful, despite a 33.6 percent Zone% that is the second-lowest among qualified relievers, because he has been extremely stingy with hard contact over most of the season. Through May 31, Davis was allowing an average exit velocity of just 88.4 mph on flyballs and line drives (per Baseball Savant). Since then, that average is sitting at 94.4 mph.
Read the rest of this entry »

I have a sim league set in 2007. My team has a 66-93 record with three games to go. My run differential is -16. Another 66-93 team has a differential of -170. Two teams that are 61 and 98 have run differentials of -218 and -236. It’s a 20 team league originally founded by Kevin Goldstein. All six playoff teams have between 104 and 120 wins. My team wasn’t meant to contend this season, so underperforming was the best result.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. The Ultimate DH Solution

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, I utilized our Splits Leaderboard and incorporated shift data into my newest xBABIP equation. So with just a couple of weeks before the all-star break, let’s calculate xBABIP for all hitters and discuss eight of them whose marks are significantly higher than their actual BABIPs, suggesting dramatic upside potential.

Read the rest of this entry »