8 Potential BABIP Improvers, June 2018

Last year, I utilized our Splits Leaderboard and incorporated shift data into my newest xBABIP equation. So with just a couple of weeks before the all-star break, let’s calculate xBABIP for all hitters and discuss eight of them whose marks are significantly higher than their actual BABIPs, suggesting dramatic upside potential.

Potential BABIP Improvers
Name LD% TFB%* TIFFB%** Hard% Spd PGBWS%*** % BIP Shifted BABIP xBABIP BABIP-xBABIP
Ian Desmond 18.0% 19.2% 0.0% 34.3% 5.8 1.1% 4.5% 0.222 0.345 -0.123
Nick Ahmed 26.6% 33.7% 2.4% 37.8% 4.2 1.3% 5.8% 0.247 0.347 -0.100
Dexter Fowler 20.5% 41.1% 2.1% 37.7% 3.7 10.1% 58.1% 0.199 0.298 -0.099
Lewis Brinson 16.3% 30.6% 1.9% 37.0% 3.6 1.0% 4.8% 0.216 0.310 -0.094
Bryce Harper 21.5% 37.2% 1.8% 43.0% 3.7 21.6% 90.0% 0.216 0.305 -0.089
Alcides Escobar 18.8% 30.5% 4.2% 34.6% 5.3 1.3% 4.7% 0.227 0.312 -0.085
Denard Span 28.0% 29.3% 2.5% 36.0% 5.2 4.7% 27.5% 0.284 0.353 -0.069
Ian Kinsler 17.9% 41.0% 6.3% 32.9% 4.4 7.1% 35.7% 0.202 0.266 -0.064
*True FB%
**True IFFB%
***Pull GB While Shifted%

Has this been a bizarre season for Ian Desmond or what?! He’s oddly continued his worm killing ways that he began last year, posting another GB% above 60%. But that’s supposed to be good for BABIP! He’s also posting a career best Hard% and sports an absurd 42.4% HR/FB rate, more than double his previous high. He has also avoided popping up all season and is rarely shifted. So aside from a slightly low line drive rate, he’s doing everything else right for a high BABIP. And he calls Coors home, the best BABIP park in baseball! It’s an obvious call to say his BABIP will rise and HR/FB rate decline over the rest of the way.

Though I perceived Nick Ahmed as a glove man (which appears wrong, as his UZR/150 was actually negative last year and sits in negative territory this year as well), there’s some actual offensive potential in his bat. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever before and has maintained last year’s HR/FB rate surge. He doesn’t strike out too much and hits a league average rate of fly balls. And check out that inflated line drive rate! Combine that with few pop-ups and he should really be posting a much higher BABIP. I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that he may very well earn 12-team mixed value over the rest of the way.

It’s amazing to me that a slow start thanks to some clearly bad luck costs hitters a job. This is exactly what has happened to Dexter Fowler, who has only started two of the Cardinals’ last six games. While his BABIP skills have deteriorated ever so slightly, his xBABIP is still pretty close to where he’s been in two of the past three seasons. I would imagine his luck would turn soon if he doesn’t become a true fourth outfielder, so he makes for a reasonable acquisition target in NL-Only leagues, especially those that count OBP.

So Lewis Brinson has shown good home run power, but that’s the only thing he’s done well. Despite a low LD%, xBABIP sees a BABIP above .300 thanks to few pop-ups and rarely grounding into the shift. I’m still not interested even when his BABIP jumps, as he strikes out too much to be a helpful in average anyway. And he’s only attempted two steals, so that removes a category we thought he would help in.

Has anyone’s BABIP marks bounced around as much as Bryce Harper’s?! .369 to .264 to .356 to .216 this season. His batted ball profile is the same as it always is. The difference? He’s getting shifted on 90% of his at-bats and grounding into that shift double the frequency as he has in the past. xBABIP still thinks his BABIP should be over .300, but it seems pretty obvious that he’s just getting crushed by the shift, perhaps moreso than the average hitter.

It stinks when Alcides Escobar doesn’t post his standard .290-.300 BABIP, since a won’t-kill-you batting average is really all he has become. He never had power, and he mysteriously stopped attempting steals. Even if he gets his average up to .250, he’s not going to earn much fantasy value.

It should be fairly obvious why Denard Span sits with a .353 xBABIP…check out that LD%! He also does everything else better than average, so he could truly be enjoying a quietly strong fantasy season if his BABIP sat where it should. His playing time hasn’t been consistent on the Mariners, however, so it’s tough to play him now outside of AL-Only leagues.

This is the second season in a row that Ian Kinsler has way underperformed his xBABIP. Before last year, he was never a consistent underperformer, outperforming in some seasons and underperforming in others. However, this is his lowest xBABIP going all the way back to 2012. The problem here is that he continues to hit a ton of fly balls, which have also led to far too many pop-ups. And he has failed to offset those free outs with even a league average LD%. The good news is that he has cut down on his strikeout rate and it currently sits at a career best. He’s done that without sacrificing power. Don’t give up on him in mixed leagues.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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sportsfreak2744
5 years ago

Where’s Gary Sanchez?

sportsfreak2744
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Dan Szymborksi said in a chat last week that his xBABIP was .260 and that his BABIP on grounders was 0.70.